4 ms·

We airdrop a population the size of Waterloo region (500-600k) of people into the country every year. They need somewhere to live. I don't think I need to say m

We airdrop a population the size of Waterloo region (500-600k) of people into the country every year. They need somewhere to live. I don't think I need to say much more. I am aware that there can be other factors, but this is the (as I said) elephant no one wants to discuss publicly.

didibus 6y ago
The 2020 stats say it's 250k, so not quite 500k/600k. But that's only the nominator, the population is aging and dying, and the birth rate is low, so the fact that 250k immigrants come in per year doesn't actually mean there is a need for more housing. So we have 300k deaths each year, 350k population growth of which 250k is immigrants, for a 1% YoY population increase. So you'd expect a need to grow housing by 1% and that would flatten prices, but it doesn't, so I feel there's more to it. > but this is the (as I said) elephant no one wants to discuss publicly I just did like 30min of googling, and almost all articles discussed immigration as a factor for Toronto high prices. So I'm not sure it's an elephant, it just doesn't seem like the simple explanation people want it to be. It isn't obvious at all that just lowering the number of immigrants the country accepts per year would have a drastic impact on Toronto prices. It seems there's many other factors at play. And you also need to consider all the other impact to the overall economy that lowering the number of migrants would have as well. I think people just don't really know, it's a hard problem, there's no clear solution, and so no one can come up with actionable remediations. One thing that I saw which might be a bigger elephant is the fact that old people don't downgrade, they stay occupying the single family residence they've owned for their entire retirement and end of life. Making no room for others. When they most likely no longer take advantage of the city or the extra space afforded by their home, and that limits the pool of homes dramatically. Especially considering Toronto has issues building more since land is scarce, and taxes are high for construction + zoning. I feel the thought was always that when you retire, you cash out your Toronto home, and downsize somewhere else cheaper, making room for others in Toronto, but this doesn't seem to be happening. And this is compounded with life expectancy growing year over year.
- waterlooman 6y ago
  Keep in mind that your numbers do not include international students as an immigration pathway and the number of people here on 10 year residency which can include "temporary" foreign workers. For example in 2019 there were 640k international students in the country, a significant percentage of them will also choose to stay here or are here on 10 year visas and they are not counted in the stats you gathered. There are an additional 550,000 TFWs here, many on long term visas. Again, not counted in your stats, nor are illegals. The government also obfuscates the number of foreign buyers of housing because it only takes 6 months to gain permanent residency, and those with permanent residency are not counted as foreign buyers. Saying "we just don't really know", and "its a hard problem" is troubling to me, its basically saying that we shouldn't bother getting to the root of the issue because you'd rather we didn't. So far with your stats that you googled, the one possible cause you offer is that elderly people might be holding onto their homes. Really?? Not, for example, speculators who can capitalize on the fact that we have guaranteed, consistent, artificial, foreign population growth since the 1980's? And why was this done? The conservative party ramped up immigration to gain favor of the immigrant voting block, and all other parties adopted the same approach.
  - didibus 6y ago
    I'm interested in real facts, thesis, explanations with substance. There seem to be many variables whose correlations and effects are not well understood. You claim you've figured it out, that the only effect of increased housing price in the Toronto metro is simply due to migrants, foreign students and foreign investors. Okay, well I'm not against that explanation, but you got to back it up with something. Otherwise it's as good as any other, such as what I pointed too, the large number of single family unit being held by the retired or soon to be retired boomer generation. My personal opinion, neither are the whole equation, the market of housing is complex, and I think we're far from understanding it, which is why there are simply no cities with landlocked and high populations that have figured out how to slow prices and make housing affordable yet. But I'm totally willing to hear out anyone whose done some deep analysis and got some good thesis around it. Personally, I wish politics allowed for testing policies and let people experiment with them a little more loosely without worry of saying ok this failed we're rolling it back and trying something else. If that was the case, I think it be curious to try something like stop taking migrants for a year and measure impact. Honestly the migrant argument is always being brought up, so if anything, it would confirm or deny more clearly that variable, and we could hopefully move on. Also, you did get me curious into the data, but to be honest, the stats are hard to fully get clarity on what they include and do not. Like there are 600k foreign students, but that's the absolute total it seems, not a year over year increase. And students stay for a while, so it's not like each year there are 600k new students, it's often the same returning students. So we'd need to look at the year over year increase. Finally, with these type of things, the flip side must also be considered. Based here: https://www.international.gc.ca/education/report-rapport/impact-2017/sec-3.aspx?lang=eng#:~:text=In%20total%2C%20%2415.5%20billion%20was,spending%20between%202015%20and%202016 https://www.international.gc.ca/education/report-rapport/imp.... foreign students create 80k jobs in Ontario and provide substantial income to the local government. So that would need to be accounted as well if say we decided to restrict their numbers further.
duhast 6y ago
House prices in Australia keep going up despite zero net immigration.

didibus 6y ago

The 2020 stats say it's 250k, so not quite 500k/600k. But that's only the nominator, the population is aging and dying, and the birth rate is low, so the fact that 250k immigrants come in per year doesn't actually mean there is a need for more housing. So we have 300k deaths each year, 350k population growth of which 250k is immigrants, for a 1% YoY population increase. So you'd expect a need to grow housing by 1% and that would flatten prices, but it doesn't, so I feel there's more to it. > but this is the (as I said) elephant no one wants to discuss publicly I just did like 30min of googling, and almost all articles discussed immigration as a factor for Toronto high prices. So I'm not sure it's an elephant, it just doesn't seem like the simple explanation people want it to be. It isn't obvious at all that just lowering the number of immigrants the country accepts per year would have a drastic impact on Toronto prices. It seems there's many other factors at play. And you also need to consider all the other impact to the overall economy that lowering the number of migrants would have as well. I think people just don't really know, it's a hard problem, there's no clear solution, and so no one can come up with actionable remediations. One thing that I saw which might be a bigger elephant is the fact that old people don't downgrade, they stay occupying the single family residence they've owned for their entire retirement and end of life. Making no room for others. When they most likely no longer take advantage of the city or the extra space afforded by their home, and that limits the pool of homes dramatically. Especially considering Toronto has issues building more since land is scarce, and taxes are high for construction + zoning. I feel the thought was always that when you retire, you cash out your Toronto home, and downsize somewhere else cheaper, making room for others in Toronto, but this doesn't seem to be happening. And this is compounded with life expectancy growing year over year.

waterlooman 6y ago
Keep in mind that your numbers do not include international students as an immigration pathway and the number of people here on 10 year residency which can include "temporary" foreign workers. For example in 2019 there were 640k international students in the country, a significant percentage of them will also choose to stay here or are here on 10 year visas and they are not counted in the stats you gathered. There are an additional 550,000 TFWs here, many on long term visas. Again, not counted in your stats, nor are illegals. The government also obfuscates the number of foreign buyers of housing because it only takes 6 months to gain permanent residency, and those with permanent residency are not counted as foreign buyers. Saying "we just don't really know", and "its a hard problem" is troubling to me, its basically saying that we shouldn't bother getting to the root of the issue because you'd rather we didn't. So far with your stats that you googled, the one possible cause you offer is that elderly people might be holding onto their homes. Really?? Not, for example, speculators who can capitalize on the fact that we have guaranteed, consistent, artificial, foreign population growth since the 1980's? And why was this done? The conservative party ramped up immigration to gain favor of the immigrant voting block, and all other parties adopted the same approach.
- didibus 6y ago
  I'm interested in real facts, thesis, explanations with substance. There seem to be many variables whose correlations and effects are not well understood. You claim you've figured it out, that the only effect of increased housing price in the Toronto metro is simply due to migrants, foreign students and foreign investors. Okay, well I'm not against that explanation, but you got to back it up with something. Otherwise it's as good as any other, such as what I pointed too, the large number of single family unit being held by the retired or soon to be retired boomer generation. My personal opinion, neither are the whole equation, the market of housing is complex, and I think we're far from understanding it, which is why there are simply no cities with landlocked and high populations that have figured out how to slow prices and make housing affordable yet. But I'm totally willing to hear out anyone whose done some deep analysis and got some good thesis around it. Personally, I wish politics allowed for testing policies and let people experiment with them a little more loosely without worry of saying ok this failed we're rolling it back and trying something else. If that was the case, I think it be curious to try something like stop taking migrants for a year and measure impact. Honestly the migrant argument is always being brought up, so if anything, it would confirm or deny more clearly that variable, and we could hopefully move on. Also, you did get me curious into the data, but to be honest, the stats are hard to fully get clarity on what they include and do not. Like there are 600k foreign students, but that's the absolute total it seems, not a year over year increase. And students stay for a while, so it's not like each year there are 600k new students, it's often the same returning students. So we'd need to look at the year over year increase. Finally, with these type of things, the flip side must also be considered. Based here: https://www.international.gc.ca/education/report-rapport/impact-2017/sec-3.aspx?lang=eng#:~:text=In%20total%2C%20%2415.5%20billion%20was,spending%20between%202015%20and%202016 https://www.international.gc.ca/education/report-rapport/imp.... foreign students create 80k jobs in Ontario and provide substantial income to the local government. So that would need to be accounted as well if say we decided to restrict their numbers further.

duhast 6y ago

House prices in Australia keep going up despite zero net immigration.