> I'm fairly certain that a contingency plan exists if Greece defaults. I'm also fairly certain that there's a report somewhere in the IMF stating that the chan

> I'm fairly certain that a contingency plan exists if Greece defaults. I'm also fairly certain that there's a report somewhere in the IMF stating that the chances of a Greek bankruptcy are greater than 30 or 40%. If these plans were to be made public Greece would default within a week, and wreak as much if not more havoc on the world economy than Lehmann brothers. The markets are no longer involved in financing the spending of the Greek state. Therefore, whether or not such information is made public would make no difference to the solvency of the Greek state. Note, however, that such information can obviously affect the price of Greek bonds on secondary markets, and there are certainly major private players involved that are very interested in manipulating those prices. But democracy should not cater to such private interests. The truth is that Greece will become bankrupt if and only if the EU does not decide to support the Greek government financially or Greek decides to exit the Euro. Without prolonged EU support, there is no way Greece can dig itself out of the hole that it was pushed into - austerity does not work, but without exiting the Euro or EU support, that is the only option available to them. Whether Greece will go into bankruptcy or not is an entirely political decision, and a decision that is highly influenced by the IMF (although it is ultimately up to EU governments). So if the IMF were to compute odds for an event that they themselves pretty much directly influence, that would be pretty dishonest (or would demonstrate that somebody at the IMF does not understand the fundamental nature of the situation).