3 ms·

Yes, this is extremely high. It is an exponential growth curve, not linear. What would that growth be after 25 years of constant 1% growth/year?

otoburb 6y ago
>>What would that growth be after 25 years of constant 1% growth/year? 1.01^25 = 1.282 or 28.2% growth. Sounds like a good bet to try to grow economic activity in the region if the immigrants are typically educated and are net-positive contributors. Canada's total fertility rate (TFR) is 1.47[1] which is well below the natural replacement rate of 2.1. I'm not blindly advocating that we grow at any cost, but it's important to note that as bad as the job situation seems to be across the country today, it feels like it would be much worse if our population continues to shrink indefinitely. Japan's stagnation over the past couple of decades seems to be one possible path that would have awaited us if Canada hadn't take steps to increase the population. [1] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200929/dq200929e-eng.htm https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200929/dq200...
- waterlooman 6y ago
  And if 28% population growth over 25 years results in insane housing affordability for younger generations, why are you still fine with that? I really don't understand this argument. You value total population growth and total economic growth over standard of living? Because with current trends it should be obscenely obvious that this approach isn't working. Population growth (at a much lower more sustainable rate) can be incentivized by literally paying people more money to have Children. And did it occur to you that perhaps our low birthrate has something to do with the increasing lack of opportunity to improve in this country? Finally, I am actually against the concept that the country must have constant population growth. Population growth comes in natural waves where some decades it will be high, and in others it will be low. The drop in birthrates many believe will cause a "sky to fall" scenario, which simply isn't true. It is parasitic to expect and demand constant population growth, especially at the cost of people's standard of living.
  - otoburb 6y ago
    >>Population growth [...] can be incentivized by literally paying people more money to have Children. Some countries tried this approach with mixed results.[1] Given that we're both worried about the debt-to-GDP (i.e. profligate deficit spending by the federal and some provincial governments) I think the budgets are better spent attracting immigrants with skills, education and in many cases capital assets they bring to the country rather than baby bonuses. Quebec still pays a baby bonus[2] but a Stats Canada study[3] showed their fertility rate over four decades was only 1.59 vs. Ontario's 1.46 -- still well below a steady-state no-growth replacement rate of 2.1. >>And did it occur to you that perhaps our low birthrate has something to do with the increasing lack of opportunity to improve in this country? This plays a role, but a lot of economic thinking (rightly or wrongly) finds a strong correlation between how developed a country is and declining TFRs even when there is a boom period of economic growth and opportunity.[4][5][6] [1] https://www.prb.org/low-fertility-countries-tfr/ https://www.prb.org/low-fertility-countries-tfr/ [2] https://www.rrq.gouv.qc.ca/en/programmes/soutien_enfants/paiement/Pages/montant.aspx https://www.rrq.gouv.qc.ca/en/programmes/soutien_enfants/pai... [3] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-006-x/2018001/article/54976-eng.htm https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-006-x/2018001/article... [4] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4255510/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4255510/ [5] https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/events/pdf/expert/4/population-fertilitylevels.pdf https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/events/pdf... [6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility
    - waterlooman 6y ago
      I am not sure what you are showing other than that you believe our population growth from mass immigration needs to continue despite the negative outcomes. In 1985 our population was 25 million, and today it is now 38 million. Most of that population growth can be attributed to mass immigration. But we have no new cities or towns. We are simply crowding ourselves out of the minimal amount of cities and arable land along a southern strip that we can inhabit. Also I don't think Japan is a negative example of population decline. They are an example of a country being able to maintain its standard of living, productivity, and its economy despite a stagnant population. I strongly believe that if population growth through mass immigration continues (and mostly likely will), standards will continue to worsen across most of the country.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

otoburb 6y ago

>>What would that growth be after 25 years of constant 1% growth/year? 1.01^25 = 1.282 or 28.2% growth. Sounds like a good bet to try to grow economic activity in the region if the immigrants are typically educated and are net-positive contributors. Canada's total fertility rate (TFR) is 1.47[1] which is well below the natural replacement rate of 2.1. I'm not blindly advocating that we grow at any cost, but it's important to note that as bad as the job situation seems to be across the country today, it feels like it would be much worse if our population continues to shrink indefinitely. Japan's stagnation over the past couple of decades seems to be one possible path that would have awaited us if Canada hadn't take steps to increase the population. [1] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200929/dq200929e-eng.htm https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200929/dq200...

waterlooman 6y ago
And if 28% population growth over 25 years results in insane housing affordability for younger generations, why are you still fine with that? I really don't understand this argument. You value total population growth and total economic growth over standard of living? Because with current trends it should be obscenely obvious that this approach isn't working. Population growth (at a much lower more sustainable rate) can be incentivized by literally paying people more money to have Children. And did it occur to you that perhaps our low birthrate has something to do with the increasing lack of opportunity to improve in this country? Finally, I am actually against the concept that the country must have constant population growth. Population growth comes in natural waves where some decades it will be high, and in others it will be low. The drop in birthrates many believe will cause a "sky to fall" scenario, which simply isn't true. It is parasitic to expect and demand constant population growth, especially at the cost of people's standard of living.
- otoburb 6y ago
  >>Population growth [...] can be incentivized by literally paying people more money to have Children. Some countries tried this approach with mixed results.[1] Given that we're both worried about the debt-to-GDP (i.e. profligate deficit spending by the federal and some provincial governments) I think the budgets are better spent attracting immigrants with skills, education and in many cases capital assets they bring to the country rather than baby bonuses. Quebec still pays a baby bonus[2] but a Stats Canada study[3] showed their fertility rate over four decades was only 1.59 vs. Ontario's 1.46 -- still well below a steady-state no-growth replacement rate of 2.1. >>And did it occur to you that perhaps our low birthrate has something to do with the increasing lack of opportunity to improve in this country? This plays a role, but a lot of economic thinking (rightly or wrongly) finds a strong correlation between how developed a country is and declining TFRs even when there is a boom period of economic growth and opportunity.[4][5][6] [1] https://www.prb.org/low-fertility-countries-tfr/ https://www.prb.org/low-fertility-countries-tfr/ [2] https://www.rrq.gouv.qc.ca/en/programmes/soutien_enfants/paiement/Pages/montant.aspx https://www.rrq.gouv.qc.ca/en/programmes/soutien_enfants/pai... [3] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-006-x/2018001/article/54976-eng.htm https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-006-x/2018001/article... [4] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4255510/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4255510/ [5] https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/events/pdf/expert/4/population-fertilitylevels.pdf https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/events/pdf... [6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility
  - waterlooman 6y ago
    I am not sure what you are showing other than that you believe our population growth from mass immigration needs to continue despite the negative outcomes. In 1985 our population was 25 million, and today it is now 38 million. Most of that population growth can be attributed to mass immigration. But we have no new cities or towns. We are simply crowding ourselves out of the minimal amount of cities and arable land along a southern strip that we can inhabit. Also I don't think Japan is a negative example of population decline. They are an example of a country being able to maintain its standard of living, productivity, and its economy despite a stagnant population. I strongly believe that if population growth through mass immigration continues (and mostly likely will), standards will continue to worsen across most of the country.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]