6 ms·

As much as I'm bullish on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general in the longer term, this feels like too much, too quickly. I don't really expect this bull run t

As much as I'm bullish on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general in the longer term, this feels like too much, too quickly. I don't really expect this bull run to last that much longer.

matheusmoreira 6y ago
No economy survives a sudden injection of trillions of dollars. People are going to want their golden parachutes eventually and a mess will be left behind. Reminds me of government student loans.
- Finnucane 6y ago
  >No economy survives a sudden injection of trillions of dollars Really? Why not? The current package and the last one amount to about 10% of the total economy. That seems survivable, especially when the alternative is a lot of people not surviving.
  - matheusmoreira 6y ago
    Because if you inject trillions of dollars into the economy, people are going to notice and they will immediately move to capture as much of it as possible. No system remains honest when faced with such temptation. Student loans are responsible for destroying academic integrity. Schools raise tuition because the government is paying for it. Students will be left with the debt after graduation but by that point they are no longer the school's problem. They also do everything possible to prevent students from dropping out, including interfering with the work of teachers. School administrators are getting rich off of the trilions of dollars being injected into the economy. Meanwhile privileges such as tenure are being abolished because they don't serve the administrator's interests.
    - etrautmann 6y ago
      I think the situation with grade inflation and loans, and the set of incentives in higher ed is a little more nuanced that you're portraying here. Universities have always had to compete for students, and the argument that the incentives pushing for student retention would disappear if student loans didn't exist seems speculative and unsupported.
    - Finnucane 6y ago
      That’s a long walk back from ‘won’t survive.’
- dkjaudyeqooe 6y ago
  Well there were the trillions injected since 2008, then the 2017 tax cuts which inject about a trillion a year, then there was the 2 trillions last year. But this 1.7 trillion is surely the death knell.
  - matheusmoreira 6y ago
    They're getting free money from the government? I think I'm gonna raise their rent in order to get some of that action! No system will remain honest after you inject a trillion dollars into it. I'm sure all of those injections caused less-than-obvious consequences immediately afterwards.
    - alphabettsy 6y ago
      Raise rent? The “system” will suddenly become so massively dishonest that it will spell death for America?
    - foogazi 6y ago
      > They're getting free money from the government? I think I'm gonna raise their rent in order to get some of that action! Yes, after all these years landlords finally have their chance to raise the rent
- kemonocode 6y ago
  I know all too well the consequences of injecting a whole bunch of "empty" money into an economy as a Venezuelan. I can't tell you if it's the right call on the short term or not in the case of US, but I'm sure the real consequences will be felt for years, if not decades after the pandemic is over.
  - panarky 6y ago
    In the old days, a balanced portfolio consisted of stocks, bonds and maybe some real estate. Today, bonds yield very little, and as we've seen in recent weeks, they can decline in value rapidly with small increases in the interest rate. You can lose a lot of money buying bonds. Stocks are at all-time highs even though the economy isn't doing so well and many are unemployed. Are stocks a safe store of value right now? Companies are shifting to hybrid work-from-home models that require less office space. And not just tech companies, yesterday Target said they're not renewing the lease on an entire building in Minneapolis because of more flexible hybrid work. Is real estate a safe store of value? As trillions of borrowed and printed dollars and euros were pumped into economies the last year, gold was the worst performing asset of them all. So is gold a safe store of value? And inflation isn't the only enemy of wealth. Political disintegration destroys wealth much faster, just look what happened to the ruble after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The probability of that happening in a major western nation is low, but not zero, and higher now than 10 years ago. So if you're a high net worth individual looking at the twin threats of inflation and political disintegration, exactly how do you protect your wealth? It's easy to see how Bitcoin might be getting a 5% allocation from a lot of family offices right now.

As much as I'm bullish on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general in the longer term, this feels like too much, too quickly. I don't really expect this bull run to last that much longer.

matheusmoreira 6y ago

No economy survives a sudden injection of trillions of dollars. People are going to want their golden parachutes eventually and a mess will be left behind. Reminds me of government student loans.

Finnucane 6y ago
>No economy survives a sudden injection of trillions of dollars Really? Why not? The current package and the last one amount to about 10% of the total economy. That seems survivable, especially when the alternative is a lot of people not surviving.
- matheusmoreira 6y ago
  Because if you inject trillions of dollars into the economy, people are going to notice and they will immediately move to capture as much of it as possible. No system remains honest when faced with such temptation. Student loans are responsible for destroying academic integrity. Schools raise tuition because the government is paying for it. Students will be left with the debt after graduation but by that point they are no longer the school's problem. They also do everything possible to prevent students from dropping out, including interfering with the work of teachers. School administrators are getting rich off of the trilions of dollars being injected into the economy. Meanwhile privileges such as tenure are being abolished because they don't serve the administrator's interests.
  - etrautmann 6y ago
    I think the situation with grade inflation and loans, and the set of incentives in higher ed is a little more nuanced that you're portraying here. Universities have always had to compete for students, and the argument that the incentives pushing for student retention would disappear if student loans didn't exist seems speculative and unsupported.
  - Finnucane 6y ago
    That’s a long walk back from ‘won’t survive.’
dkjaudyeqooe 6y ago
Well there were the trillions injected since 2008, then the 2017 tax cuts which inject about a trillion a year, then there was the 2 trillions last year. But this 1.7 trillion is surely the death knell.
- matheusmoreira 6y ago
  They're getting free money from the government? I think I'm gonna raise their rent in order to get some of that action! No system will remain honest after you inject a trillion dollars into it. I'm sure all of those injections caused less-than-obvious consequences immediately afterwards.
  - alphabettsy 6y ago
    Raise rent? The “system” will suddenly become so massively dishonest that it will spell death for America?
  - foogazi 6y ago
    > They're getting free money from the government? I think I'm gonna raise their rent in order to get some of that action! Yes, after all these years landlords finally have their chance to raise the rent
kemonocode 6y ago
I know all too well the consequences of injecting a whole bunch of "empty" money into an economy as a Venezuelan. I can't tell you if it's the right call on the short term or not in the case of US, but I'm sure the real consequences will be felt for years, if not decades after the pandemic is over.
- panarky 6y ago
  In the old days, a balanced portfolio consisted of stocks, bonds and maybe some real estate. Today, bonds yield very little, and as we've seen in recent weeks, they can decline in value rapidly with small increases in the interest rate. You can lose a lot of money buying bonds. Stocks are at all-time highs even though the economy isn't doing so well and many are unemployed. Are stocks a safe store of value right now? Companies are shifting to hybrid work-from-home models that require less office space. And not just tech companies, yesterday Target said they're not renewing the lease on an entire building in Minneapolis because of more flexible hybrid work. Is real estate a safe store of value? As trillions of borrowed and printed dollars and euros were pumped into economies the last year, gold was the worst performing asset of them all. So is gold a safe store of value? And inflation isn't the only enemy of wealth. Political disintegration destroys wealth much faster, just look what happened to the ruble after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The probability of that happening in a major western nation is low, but not zero, and higher now than 10 years ago. So if you're a high net worth individual looking at the twin threats of inflation and political disintegration, exactly how do you protect your wealth? It's easy to see how Bitcoin might be getting a 5% allocation from a lot of family offices right now.