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Honestly I think the issue isn't with batteries or current technology. My lay view is that the technology to make PEVs attractive is already here. What is not h
by rsj_hn 6y ago
Honestly I think the issue isn't with batteries or current technology. My lay view is that the technology to make PEVs attractive is already here. What is not here is the eco-system.
* Can you get the car serviced at an independent mechanic or do you have to go to the dealer and pay whatever they decide to charge you? No amount of battery innovation will overcome $1000 bills to replace a door handle. Check out Rich Rebuild's youtube channel for a description of the service costs of keeping a Tesla running out of warranty: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nq5c4jGR2gM&t=302s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nq5c4jGR2gM&t=302s
* Is there a large eco-system of after-market parts and third party warranty issuers? This is required to drive repair costs down.
* Do we have good data on the lifetime of critical parts under actual use? This is required for consumers to estimate the operating costs over the life of the vehicle (whether or not they plan on selling it doesn't matter, as they will pay for those operating costs either in depreciation or in paying for repairs themselves)
* Is there a robust country-wide charge network that compete with gas stations?
* Is there a system to quickly get energy when you need it -- e.g. either very fast (10 min) charging or a swap-in battery system to give you a quick 100 miles of range.
These are not issues that require breakthroughs in solid state science. If the batteries don't last long, make it easier to service them or swap them out. If the range isn't so great, create a wider network of chargers. If the parts don't last as long, make them cheaper and easier to service by independent mechanics. Force a right to repair and diagnose for PEVs as we have for gas powered cars.
IOW, rather than waiting on breakthroughs in materials science, infrastructure upgrades can solve these issues, but lack of infrastructure can't be solved by breakthroughs in battery life. As long as Tesla is a monopoly provider of parts and service, and as long as the infrastructure isn't there, upping the power to weight ratio of batteries by 30% isn't going to do much to reduce ownership risk to consumers, and PEVs will remain a niche market dominated by wealthy consumers who can bear ownership cost risk better than middle class people.
* And of course, the electric grid needs a massive upgrade.
All of the above is well within the reach of existing tech. Whether it's financially feasible is another question.