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If the EU cannot show there's a big exit cost it may not last too much longer. Economic growth is so lackluster all across the EU, including new entrants, that
by auganov 6y ago
If the EU cannot show there's a big exit cost it may not last too much longer.
Economic growth is so lackluster all across the EU, including new entrants, that few people (who looked at the data) genuinely believe EU membership is a GDP booster. EU's next best bet is to play into the fear that exiting will bring about economic ruin. This works particularly well on newer members who may not be on good terms with core EU countries. Their fear wouldn't necessarily be missing out on benefits but getting slapped with sanctions.
- viraptor 6y agoWe already saw the big exit cost. Tariffs will apply where trade deals are missing. I'm not sure who you expect to use sanctions - EU won't slap anyone with sanctions just because they left EU. Have a look at https://sanctionsmap.eu/ https://sanctionsmap.eu/ for situations where sanctions have been applied.
- auganov 6y agoThere's nothing interesting going on with UK's economy. Seems pretty indistinct from the rest of Europe. No, I do not think EU would really do major sanctions, but I do think it's something some fear and I do think it's a fear the EU plays into. Many in ex-Soviet and ex-Soviet-satellite countries see EU membership as the guarantor of access and lasting ties with not just Western Europe but the "free world" in general (as in not being part of the Russia/China/Iran/+ club). Even in the UK you see some semblance of this sentiment despite being rather ridiculous. In countries that have a fairly recent history of being excluded for no good reason it seems all the more compelling.