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Let’s be honest, it’s not up to the UK alone. The EU still has strong world influence and they will try to stop it at any cost.

viraptor 6y ago
Why do you think so? What do you think EU has to gain from UK doing badly? And I mean in practice, economically - we're way past the time "told you so" is relevant.
- auganov 6y ago
  If the EU cannot show there's a big exit cost it may not last too much longer. Economic growth is so lackluster all across the EU, including new entrants, that few people (who looked at the data) genuinely believe EU membership is a GDP booster. EU's next best bet is to play into the fear that exiting will bring about economic ruin. This works particularly well on newer members who may not be on good terms with core EU countries. Their fear wouldn't necessarily be missing out on benefits but getting slapped with sanctions.
  - viraptor 6y ago
    We already saw the big exit cost. Tariffs will apply where trade deals are missing. I'm not sure who you expect to use sanctions - EU won't slap anyone with sanctions just because they left EU. Have a look at https://sanctionsmap.eu/ https://sanctionsmap.eu/ for situations where sanctions have been applied.
    - auganov 6y ago
      There's nothing interesting going on with UK's economy. Seems pretty indistinct from the rest of Europe. No, I do not think EU would really do major sanctions, but I do think it's something some fear and I do think it's a fear the EU plays into. Many in ex-Soviet and ex-Soviet-satellite countries see EU membership as the guarantor of access and lasting ties with not just Western Europe but the "free world" in general (as in not being part of the Russia/China/Iran/+ club). Even in the UK you see some semblance of this sentiment despite being rather ridiculous. In countries that have a fairly recent history of being excluded for no good reason it seems all the more compelling.

viraptor 6y ago

Why do you think so? What do you think EU has to gain from UK doing badly? And I mean in practice, economically - we're way past the time "told you so" is relevant.

auganov 6y ago
If the EU cannot show there's a big exit cost it may not last too much longer. Economic growth is so lackluster all across the EU, including new entrants, that few people (who looked at the data) genuinely believe EU membership is a GDP booster. EU's next best bet is to play into the fear that exiting will bring about economic ruin. This works particularly well on newer members who may not be on good terms with core EU countries. Their fear wouldn't necessarily be missing out on benefits but getting slapped with sanctions.
- viraptor 6y ago
  We already saw the big exit cost. Tariffs will apply where trade deals are missing. I'm not sure who you expect to use sanctions - EU won't slap anyone with sanctions just because they left EU. Have a look at https://sanctionsmap.eu/ https://sanctionsmap.eu/ for situations where sanctions have been applied.
  - auganov 6y ago
    There's nothing interesting going on with UK's economy. Seems pretty indistinct from the rest of Europe. No, I do not think EU would really do major sanctions, but I do think it's something some fear and I do think it's a fear the EU plays into. Many in ex-Soviet and ex-Soviet-satellite countries see EU membership as the guarantor of access and lasting ties with not just Western Europe but the "free world" in general (as in not being part of the Russia/China/Iran/+ club). Even in the UK you see some semblance of this sentiment despite being rather ridiculous. In countries that have a fairly recent history of being excluded for no good reason it seems all the more compelling.