5 ms·

The Lockdowns Weren’t Worth It

28 points by mrfusion 6y ago

byhemechi 6y ago
The lockdowns didn't work because americans were involved and instead of staying home for 2 weeks got in their cars and stood on government steps with guns. Clearly when the population realises that "muh freedom" isn't really a valid excuse and just stays put, it works fine (see: australia, new zealand)
- babesh 6y ago
  False. The outbreaks did not coincide with those protests with guns. Would you blame the BLM protests which were far larger? The last and largest outbreak based on cases seemed to coincide with the holidays. Perhaps you should blame Dr. Fauci for telling people not to wear masks during the first outbreak?
- wisdomdata 6y ago
  At what cost? we've saved a few 80 year olds, but lost hundreds of younger people via suicide and created a huge long tail of mental health problems along with poor educational outcomes (Australian here).
  - boatmansloth 6y ago
    Do you have data the Australian Institute for Health and Welfare doesn't have? https://www.aihw.gov.au/suicide-self-harm-monitoring/data/covid-19 https://www.aihw.gov.au/suicide-self-harm-monitoring/data/co... In NSW suicide fell by 5% last year: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/23/nsw-suicide-rate-falls-by-remarkable-5-in-2020-lifeline-finds https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/23/nsw-s... There was also a dip in Victoria: https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/suicides-in-victoria-dip-despite-fears-pandemic-would-drive-increase-20210118-p56uwp.html https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/suicides-in-vict...
  - ElCapitanMarkla 6y ago
    Don’t try brush it off as a few 80 year olds. Over half a million people have needlessly died in the states. How’s the mental well being of those half a million families, how’s the mental well being of the millions more who were sick and thought they were going to die.
Mandatum 6y ago
Paywall bypass: https://archive.fo/0bFdT https://archive.fo/0bFdT
mikewarot 6y ago
>This time last year we had no idea how difficult it would be to control the virus. There we plans and procedures in place, which were actively subverted by multiple levels of leadership, across the planet, for political reasons.
kuahyeow 6y ago
> Yet not a single government has published a cost-benefit analysis to justify lockdown policies Enjoy, here's a stackful of documents showing https://covid19.govt.nz/updates-and-resources/legislation-and-key-documents/proactive-release/ https://covid19.govt.nz/updates-and-resources/legislation-an... how a robust health response works.
ggm 6y ago
Not a space HN can display it's best face. Polarised views of the same underlying information makes it too hard.
BXLE_1-1-BitIs1 6y ago
Taiwan did better than just about everybody else without lockdowns. Workplaces and schools stayed active. The magic trick: universal masking. Plus plastic partitions between people during mealtimes. Plus putting up quarantined people in hotels where they received daily health worker visits, meals and a stipend. In my hometown, I'm seeing workplace outbreaks exploding because infected workers are quarantined at home where their families get infected. The other lockdown idiocy is confining people indoors when the safest place is outdoors (Crowded downtown sidewalks excepted where you really need to wear a wask).
- mc32 6y ago
  Who was footing the hotel bills while patients were in quarantine?
  - rdtwo 6y ago
    Same entity that’s footing the bill for 1m dollar hospital stays in the us
    - mc32 6y ago
      So previously there was a considerable subsidy but since Sept it’s been curtailed.
- vondur 6y ago
  I don’t know if masks are that effective. They’ve been ubiquitous here in SoCal for months and yet we’ve had some of the highest infection rates in the country. I suppose if everyone were using N95 masks that probably would have worked.
  - AlotOfReading 6y ago
    If you're wearing a close fitting mask properly and maintaining reasonable social distance, what transmission vector would there be such that they're ineffective? Fomites have been repeatedly rejected as a major vector so what's left?
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
hiperlink 6y ago
In my opinion if the lockdown has helped keeping the death ratio per 100000 person at around 1 as was the case for e.g. New Zeeland (if I recall correctly), then it's worth it - from the value of human life point of view. Then there are economic/capitalist point of views for which I don't care. Especially if the lockdown could save some loved ones. But this is just an opinion.

28 points by mrfusion 6y ago

The lockdowns didn't work because americans were involved and instead of staying home for 2 weeks got in their cars and stood on government steps with guns. Clearly when the population realises that "muh freedom" isn't really a valid excuse and just stays put, it works fine (see: australia, new zealand)

babesh 6y ago
False. The outbreaks did not coincide with those protests with guns. Would you blame the BLM protests which were far larger? The last and largest outbreak based on cases seemed to coincide with the holidays. Perhaps you should blame Dr. Fauci for telling people not to wear masks during the first outbreak?
wisdomdata 6y ago
At what cost? we've saved a few 80 year olds, but lost hundreds of younger people via suicide and created a huge long tail of mental health problems along with poor educational outcomes (Australian here).
- boatmansloth 6y ago
  Do you have data the Australian Institute for Health and Welfare doesn't have? https://www.aihw.gov.au/suicide-self-harm-monitoring/data/covid-19 https://www.aihw.gov.au/suicide-self-harm-monitoring/data/co... In NSW suicide fell by 5% last year: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/23/nsw-suicide-rate-falls-by-remarkable-5-in-2020-lifeline-finds https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/23/nsw-s... There was also a dip in Victoria: https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/suicides-in-victoria-dip-despite-fears-pandemic-would-drive-increase-20210118-p56uwp.html https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/suicides-in-vict...
- ElCapitanMarkla 6y ago
  Don’t try brush it off as a few 80 year olds. Over half a million people have needlessly died in the states. How’s the mental well being of those half a million families, how’s the mental well being of the millions more who were sick and thought they were going to die.

Mandatum 6y ago

Paywall bypass: https://archive.fo/0bFdT https://archive.fo/0bFdT

mikewarot 6y ago

>This time last year we had no idea how difficult it would be to control the virus. There we plans and procedures in place, which were actively subverted by multiple levels of leadership, across the planet, for political reasons.

kuahyeow 6y ago

> Yet not a single government has published a cost-benefit analysis to justify lockdown policies Enjoy, here's a stackful of documents showing https://covid19.govt.nz/updates-and-resources/legislation-and-key-documents/proactive-release/ https://covid19.govt.nz/updates-and-resources/legislation-an... how a robust health response works.

ggm 6y ago

Not a space HN can display it's best face. Polarised views of the same underlying information makes it too hard.

BXLE_1-1-BitIs1 6y ago

Taiwan did better than just about everybody else without lockdowns. Workplaces and schools stayed active. The magic trick: universal masking. Plus plastic partitions between people during mealtimes. Plus putting up quarantined people in hotels where they received daily health worker visits, meals and a stipend. In my hometown, I'm seeing workplace outbreaks exploding because infected workers are quarantined at home where their families get infected. The other lockdown idiocy is confining people indoors when the safest place is outdoors (Crowded downtown sidewalks excepted where you really need to wear a wask).

mc32 6y ago
Who was footing the hotel bills while patients were in quarantine?
- rdtwo 6y ago
  Same entity that’s footing the bill for 1m dollar hospital stays in the us
  - mc32 6y ago
    So previously there was a considerable subsidy but since Sept it’s been curtailed.
vondur 6y ago
I don’t know if masks are that effective. They’ve been ubiquitous here in SoCal for months and yet we’ve had some of the highest infection rates in the country. I suppose if everyone were using N95 masks that probably would have worked.
- AlotOfReading 6y ago
  If you're wearing a close fitting mask properly and maintaining reasonable social distance, what transmission vector would there be such that they're ineffective? Fomites have been repeatedly rejected as a major vector so what's left?

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

hiperlink 6y ago

In my opinion if the lockdown has helped keeping the death ratio per 100000 person at around 1 as was the case for e.g. New Zeeland (if I recall correctly), then it's worth it - from the value of human life point of view. Then there are economic/capitalist point of views for which I don't care. Especially if the lockdown could save some loved ones. But this is just an opinion.