4 ms·

You build a big grid. Wind won't be light everywhere. Load is lower at night, so lack of sunlight is less of an issue. Maybe people start placing battery packs

You build a big grid. Wind won't be light everywhere. Load is lower at night, so lack of sunlight is less of an issue. Maybe people start placing battery packs in their homes. Battery technology has seen large investments over the past decade and performance is better than ever. When demand is high, inexpensive natural gas can be turned on quickly. There are a lot of options, almost all of them less expensive than nuclear. That's my point, traditionally nuclear was good for baseline and renewable doesn't have a comparable equivalent apart from hydro. But other renewables like wind are getting to be so efficient and inexpensive, that I don't see how building an excess of it can't compete with nuclear.

nitrogen 6y ago
Load is lower at night Only in warm climates.
- whoooooo123 6y ago
  Yes, and also load is higher in the winter, when there's less wind and sunshine.
  - hyper_dynamics 6y ago
    Less wind in the winter is surely not true for countries in Europe.
godelski 6y ago
> Battery technology has seen large investments over the past decade and performance is better than ever. Battery technology still has a bit to go before it can perform this task though. Even if we don't account for freak weather events (which are becoming more common). > When demand is high, inexpensive natural gas can be turned on quickly. Is this a good option though? I think the only good argument against nuclear is cost, so I agree with that. But if we consider the cost of emissions, storage (these aren't counted in solar and wind and don't make for fair comparisons to base loads like coal, gas, or nuclear), or other factors that fall under "tragedy of the commons" (i.e. putting sources on even playing fields) the prices become more comparable (depending how you weigh factors). But it really does come down to how much you value the cost of climate and human lives (since nuclear is about 50x safer than natural gas). Cost is a good argument, but we have to define our priors because "cost" means different things to different people. I for one would rather pay more for electricity and save human lives and reduce emissions. Just at $50/ton tax (low) would make it competitive[0], assuming that we couldn't regain economies of scale. [0] https://www.axios.com/nuclear-energy-could-be-competitive-but-it-requires-pricing-carbon-78fd8c75-a534-4baa-a12b-452e8ce17c9c.html https://www.axios.com/nuclear-energy-could-be-competitive-bu...
- kristopolous 6y ago
  Battery technology isn't as far off as you think. We're talking power station level storage, as in it doesn't have to be light, cheap and consumer durable. Risks of fire or toxicity from consumers doing dumb things doesn't have to be worried about for instance. A pet gnawing at it and getting sick? Not happening. So not unobtainium but expensivium can be used. Also operating environments can be dictated, such as temperature, humidity, water cooling or say if the battery technology required a contraption the size of a house, etc. And lastly it doesn't have to be produced at scale. The lead time for some power station equipment is already months to years. Clunky awkward manufacturing is production ready. There's many more possibilities given those possibilities. Right now it's Li-ion and nicad at installation sites but look for that changing soon
  - godelski 6y ago
    The problem with intermittent power and batteries is that you don't have to equal the capacity of an on demand or base load system, you have to have higher capacity. This does vary dramatically between different areas. For example, Nevada doesn't have the same requirements as New England. Nevada has fairly consistent seasons and isn't as subject to storms, thus they don't need much excessive storage. On the other hand New England suffers frequent heavy seasonal storms and long winters that make storage more difficult. Even more so when we are talking about the frequency of these events increasing due to climate change. The problem is complicated. > A pet gnawing at it and getting sick? Not happening. Power outages are often caused by animals. 11% are from squirrels[0]. SQUIRRELS! > Also operating environments can be dictated, such as temperature, humidity, water cooling or say if the battery technology required a contraption the size of a house, etc. This just adds to the nuance from above. Because now you need to power your containment. This needs priority over powering homes actually. So now you need more excess and more backups because this is going to be expensive if it fails and take a long time to get back up. A lot can be reduced if people start building battery systems in their homes. But most people don't have $5k-$15k to drop on a powerwall. But that is shifting the burden to consumers and I'm not sure that's a fair comparison because this consumer cost isn't included in our pricing comparisons. Though this would be a much more robust system (assuming we ignore increase in risk of fire) and greatly reduce damage done by events like what we saw in Texas, even if there is a lot of human error involved. Climate and power is an extremely difficult topic. Anyone saying otherwise is uninformed. [0] https://gesrepair.com/what-are-the-most-common-causes-of-power-outages/ https://gesrepair.com/what-are-the-most-common-causes-of-pow...
fomine3 6y ago
That's why nuclear is important for island and industrial country like Japan. Island country is difficult to develop well-balanced renewables because of the grid is small and difficult to connect to other countries' grid. Sadly Japan is now very difficult to build new nuclear plants for obvious reason. I suspect that that's why Japan gov and Toyota is going to develop Hydrogen.

nitrogen 6y ago

Load is lower at night Only in warm climates.

whoooooo123 6y ago
Yes, and also load is higher in the winter, when there's less wind and sunshine.
- hyper_dynamics 6y ago
  Less wind in the winter is surely not true for countries in Europe.

godelski 6y ago

> Battery technology has seen large investments over the past decade and performance is better than ever. Battery technology still has a bit to go before it can perform this task though. Even if we don't account for freak weather events (which are becoming more common). > When demand is high, inexpensive natural gas can be turned on quickly. Is this a good option though? I think the only good argument against nuclear is cost, so I agree with that. But if we consider the cost of emissions, storage (these aren't counted in solar and wind and don't make for fair comparisons to base loads like coal, gas, or nuclear), or other factors that fall under "tragedy of the commons" (i.e. putting sources on even playing fields) the prices become more comparable (depending how you weigh factors). But it really does come down to how much you value the cost of climate and human lives (since nuclear is about 50x safer than natural gas). Cost is a good argument, but we have to define our priors because "cost" means different things to different people. I for one would rather pay more for electricity and save human lives and reduce emissions. Just at $50/ton tax (low) would make it competitive[0], assuming that we couldn't regain economies of scale. [0] https://www.axios.com/nuclear-energy-could-be-competitive-but-it-requires-pricing-carbon-78fd8c75-a534-4baa-a12b-452e8ce17c9c.html https://www.axios.com/nuclear-energy-could-be-competitive-bu...

kristopolous 6y ago
Battery technology isn't as far off as you think. We're talking power station level storage, as in it doesn't have to be light, cheap and consumer durable. Risks of fire or toxicity from consumers doing dumb things doesn't have to be worried about for instance. A pet gnawing at it and getting sick? Not happening. So not unobtainium but expensivium can be used. Also operating environments can be dictated, such as temperature, humidity, water cooling or say if the battery technology required a contraption the size of a house, etc. And lastly it doesn't have to be produced at scale. The lead time for some power station equipment is already months to years. Clunky awkward manufacturing is production ready. There's many more possibilities given those possibilities. Right now it's Li-ion and nicad at installation sites but look for that changing soon
- godelski 6y ago
  The problem with intermittent power and batteries is that you don't have to equal the capacity of an on demand or base load system, you have to have higher capacity. This does vary dramatically between different areas. For example, Nevada doesn't have the same requirements as New England. Nevada has fairly consistent seasons and isn't as subject to storms, thus they don't need much excessive storage. On the other hand New England suffers frequent heavy seasonal storms and long winters that make storage more difficult. Even more so when we are talking about the frequency of these events increasing due to climate change. The problem is complicated. > A pet gnawing at it and getting sick? Not happening. Power outages are often caused by animals. 11% are from squirrels[0]. SQUIRRELS! > Also operating environments can be dictated, such as temperature, humidity, water cooling or say if the battery technology required a contraption the size of a house, etc. This just adds to the nuance from above. Because now you need to power your containment. This needs priority over powering homes actually. So now you need more excess and more backups because this is going to be expensive if it fails and take a long time to get back up. A lot can be reduced if people start building battery systems in their homes. But most people don't have $5k-$15k to drop on a powerwall. But that is shifting the burden to consumers and I'm not sure that's a fair comparison because this consumer cost isn't included in our pricing comparisons. Though this would be a much more robust system (assuming we ignore increase in risk of fire) and greatly reduce damage done by events like what we saw in Texas, even if there is a lot of human error involved. Climate and power is an extremely difficult topic. Anyone saying otherwise is uninformed. [0] https://gesrepair.com/what-are-the-most-common-causes-of-power-outages/ https://gesrepair.com/what-are-the-most-common-causes-of-pow...

fomine3 6y ago

That's why nuclear is important for island and industrial country like Japan. Island country is difficult to develop well-balanced renewables because of the grid is small and difficult to connect to other countries' grid. Sadly Japan is now very difficult to build new nuclear plants for obvious reason. I suspect that that's why Japan gov and Toyota is going to develop Hydrogen.