4 ms·

The idea that the nation with the most lethal, best organized, and richest military in the region by orders of magnitude - the only military in the neighborhood

The idea that the nation with the most lethal, best organized, and richest military in the region by orders of magnitude - the only military in the neighborhood with nuclear weapons, and invincible submarine-launched nuclear weapons at that - faces any sort of existential threat from anyone is a bad joke. That you see this "argument" so often only speaks to the effectiveness of a decades-long PR campaign, and not any reality. Does Israel have enemies? Plenty, and justifiably so in many cases! But enemies and existential threats are not the same thing. There is no existential threat to Israel, certainly not any in the form of a foreign aggressor. Anyone even considering becoming a serious existential threat to Israel has to contend with the reality of attempting to get rid of it militarily, assuming they could even come close to doing so: the inevitable (and probably immediate) annihilation, Dr. Strangelove-style, of the entire region in retaliatory nuclear strikes. Israel has militarily guaranteed its continued existence, and wagging our fingers at each other on the internet cannot change anything about it. If anything, with an arsenal like that, you wonder whether other countries in the neighborhood might ask whether Israel is an existential threat to them. Who could tell them they're wrong?

refurb 6y ago
This seems like a really odd take. Iraq attempted to develop nuclear weapons back in the 80's. Iran is currently attempting to do so. Israel's enemies are often non-state actors that have already demonstrated they don't really care about their personal survival or civilian casualties (theirs or Israel's). You could argue that Israel is well equipped to control any existential threat by it's neighbors, but to argue such a threat doesn't exist is kind of silly.
- nickik 6y ago
  > Iran is currently attempting to do so. You know what Israel is also good at. Propaganda and creating fake intelligence. Israel has for almost 30 years now argued that Iran is just a year away from nuclear weapons and the US must instantly attack Iran. Iran had no plan to develop anything and wanted civilian nuclear power, complete controlled by France in terms of import and export of nuclear fuel. When this was blocked Iran moved said, well I guess we will invest in this ourself. Once they had the started capability to do so, again with no evidence of developing nuclear weapons Israel/US started the assassinate Iranian scientists, create one of the most aggressive sanctions programs in world history and a whole host of other things such as stuxnet. Despite multiple US intelligence agencies saying there was no evidence of a nuclear weapons program and many expert predicting Iran had no such plans. Iran eventually agree to the most extreme observation of their nuclear program that any nation has ever agree on in history of nuclear agreements. And this program was active for quite a while, and found no evidence what so ever that there had ever been a nuclear program. Basically all expert saying that it was practically impossible for them to have a nuclear weapons program with those safegurads in control. The US then left an international agreement, despite every other nation that was part of the agreement agree that Iran had behaved perfectly within the agreement. Iran was certified multiple times of having not engaged in any activity that was not allowed in the agreement. And even after the US left the agreement, Iran and the other nations still hold to the agreement and safeguards are still in place. So this idea that Iran is this big danger is simply propaganda pushed by Israel mostly and other US interests who hate Iran for various reasons. What really mind blowing about this whole 'Iran nuclear controversy' is that ironical Isreal IS ACTUALLY nuclear rough state. Iran is a signatory of the NPT while Israel is not. But of course them having them is just fine and proper, but anybody else getting them existential thread. But that argument of course is never allowed to be made the other way around. If there is a state of rebellious fanatics that repress large parts of their population that is a thread to the world, I know what state I would pick. And if I were the neighbour of such a state, I be very concerned. It is Israel actually that has invaded other countries repeatedly far more often then they were invaded. Just about right now that Biden might even consider even possible reopening negotiations, the propaganda machine is pumping out this garbage again.
  - fileyfood500 6y ago
    A reason Iran is threatening to Israel is because Iranian leaders don't recognize Israel's right to exist. I don't have data on when Iran will/can develop a nuclear weapon. There is a fear that they would make use of it though, which is definitely a problem. In contrast to Iran's stance, Israel does recognize Iran's right to exist, and while it is in possession of nuclear bombs, has not used them. Iran also provides funding and weapons to Hamas and Hezbollah, which are both internationally recognized terrorist groups on Israel's borders that launch rockets into the country. So while Israel is technologically ahead, Iran demonstrates intent to be an aggressor against Israel given the opportunity. In the interest of avoiding a war between Iran and Israel, where I argue there is no real winner when lives are lost, it's worth making sure Iran doesn't have the opportunity to start a war. Israel would much prefer to have peace. I agree with the concern about the 1 year claim. Iran definitely has the right to use civilian nuclear power, and I don't know the math behind the 1 year line. It may be that 1 year is the fastest possible amount of time that Iran could conceivably develop a nuke, in which case, I totally agree, it's propaganda to be citing that.
    - nickik 6y ago
      > A reason Iran is threatening to Israel is because Iranian leaders don't recognize Israel's right to exist. Neither do most nations in the region. Iran has stated multiple times that Iran would comply with the Arab peace process. > I don't have data on when Iran will/can develop a nuclear weapon. There is a fear that they would make use of it though, which is definitely a problem. And what is that fear based on? That they are crazy religious nuts who don't understand game theory? Very reasonable. This is just more propaganda, that one religious nation claims the other religious nations leaders are a bunch of suicide bombers. Expert consequences by people who actually study this is that even if Iran had nuclear weapons, they would not use it. This is exactly like when in the US the anti-Communist claimed the Communist whole nuke everybody. > Iran also provides funding and weapons to Hamas and Hezbollah, which are both internationally recognized terrorist groups on Israel's borders that launch rockets into the country. And Israel has invaded the Lebanon, is consistently stealing more land from Palestinians, is often bombing West Bank and Gaza. Israel has attacked the Iranian nuclear program and has bombed Iranian forces in Syria. Despite these forces being there based on invitation from the international recognized government of Syria. Why can this not be treated like any other conflict between two nations, where we use the same standards for both governments? > So while Israel is technologically ahead, Iran demonstrates intent to be an aggressor against Israel given the opportunity. In Israel has done the same thing and arguably has done far more. Not to mention the constant and public demands from Israel that the US should attack Iran and bomb them into the stone age. Seriously, go and actually listen to what Israeli politicians from the Likud and even further right wing groups say about what should be done to Iran. And listen to what people in the US government who are friends of Likud say. Bombing them into the stone age, preemptive war and so on. Btw, while Israel accepts that Iran as a country should exists, they do not think the Islamic Republic is legitimate and had a regime change policy for a long time. > In the interest of avoiding a war between Iran and Israel, where I argue there is no real winner when lives are lost, it's worth making sure Iran doesn't have the opportunity to start a war. Israel would much prefer to have peace. Israel has a funny way of showing they want peace in that case. > I agree with the concern about the 1 year claim. Iran definitely has the right to use civilian nuclear power, and I don't know the math behind the 1 year line. It may be that 1 year is the fastest possible amount of time that Iran could conceivably develop a nuke, in which case, I totally agree, it's propaganda to be citing that. As long as the safeguards are in place, Iran can't develop a nuke at all. And from Israels perspective that is exactly the problem. That is exactly why Israel and friends almost went ballistic when Obama showed that Iran could be a international partner with an agreement. Now the buggy-men about Iran nuclear is gone and that makes it impossible for them to ever get the US into a war with Iran. And they know Iran doesn't have the conventional military. What if if 'shock' Iran became a normal country in the international order. That must be prevented at any cost.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
dvh1990 6y ago
Israel can easily get disrupted if they let up. Right now, maybe you're right. But that can change.
- shahar2k 6y ago
  "disrupted" in the case of Israel though is an euphemism with some deep existential implications.
selfhoster11 6y ago
Their military is so well equipped and organized only because outside pressure from their neighbours forced them to do so. The very existential threat discussed by the parent comment was what put them where they are now.

refurb 6y ago

This seems like a really odd take. Iraq attempted to develop nuclear weapons back in the 80's. Iran is currently attempting to do so. Israel's enemies are often non-state actors that have already demonstrated they don't really care about their personal survival or civilian casualties (theirs or Israel's). You could argue that Israel is well equipped to control any existential threat by it's neighbors, but to argue such a threat doesn't exist is kind of silly.

nickik 6y ago
> Iran is currently attempting to do so. You know what Israel is also good at. Propaganda and creating fake intelligence. Israel has for almost 30 years now argued that Iran is just a year away from nuclear weapons and the US must instantly attack Iran. Iran had no plan to develop anything and wanted civilian nuclear power, complete controlled by France in terms of import and export of nuclear fuel. When this was blocked Iran moved said, well I guess we will invest in this ourself. Once they had the started capability to do so, again with no evidence of developing nuclear weapons Israel/US started the assassinate Iranian scientists, create one of the most aggressive sanctions programs in world history and a whole host of other things such as stuxnet. Despite multiple US intelligence agencies saying there was no evidence of a nuclear weapons program and many expert predicting Iran had no such plans. Iran eventually agree to the most extreme observation of their nuclear program that any nation has ever agree on in history of nuclear agreements. And this program was active for quite a while, and found no evidence what so ever that there had ever been a nuclear program. Basically all expert saying that it was practically impossible for them to have a nuclear weapons program with those safegurads in control. The US then left an international agreement, despite every other nation that was part of the agreement agree that Iran had behaved perfectly within the agreement. Iran was certified multiple times of having not engaged in any activity that was not allowed in the agreement. And even after the US left the agreement, Iran and the other nations still hold to the agreement and safeguards are still in place. So this idea that Iran is this big danger is simply propaganda pushed by Israel mostly and other US interests who hate Iran for various reasons. What really mind blowing about this whole 'Iran nuclear controversy' is that ironical Isreal IS ACTUALLY nuclear rough state. Iran is a signatory of the NPT while Israel is not. But of course them having them is just fine and proper, but anybody else getting them existential thread. But that argument of course is never allowed to be made the other way around. If there is a state of rebellious fanatics that repress large parts of their population that is a thread to the world, I know what state I would pick. And if I were the neighbour of such a state, I be very concerned. It is Israel actually that has invaded other countries repeatedly far more often then they were invaded. Just about right now that Biden might even consider even possible reopening negotiations, the propaganda machine is pumping out this garbage again.
- fileyfood500 6y ago
  A reason Iran is threatening to Israel is because Iranian leaders don't recognize Israel's right to exist. I don't have data on when Iran will/can develop a nuclear weapon. There is a fear that they would make use of it though, which is definitely a problem. In contrast to Iran's stance, Israel does recognize Iran's right to exist, and while it is in possession of nuclear bombs, has not used them. Iran also provides funding and weapons to Hamas and Hezbollah, which are both internationally recognized terrorist groups on Israel's borders that launch rockets into the country. So while Israel is technologically ahead, Iran demonstrates intent to be an aggressor against Israel given the opportunity. In the interest of avoiding a war between Iran and Israel, where I argue there is no real winner when lives are lost, it's worth making sure Iran doesn't have the opportunity to start a war. Israel would much prefer to have peace. I agree with the concern about the 1 year claim. Iran definitely has the right to use civilian nuclear power, and I don't know the math behind the 1 year line. It may be that 1 year is the fastest possible amount of time that Iran could conceivably develop a nuke, in which case, I totally agree, it's propaganda to be citing that.
  - nickik 6y ago
    > A reason Iran is threatening to Israel is because Iranian leaders don't recognize Israel's right to exist. Neither do most nations in the region. Iran has stated multiple times that Iran would comply with the Arab peace process. > I don't have data on when Iran will/can develop a nuclear weapon. There is a fear that they would make use of it though, which is definitely a problem. And what is that fear based on? That they are crazy religious nuts who don't understand game theory? Very reasonable. This is just more propaganda, that one religious nation claims the other religious nations leaders are a bunch of suicide bombers. Expert consequences by people who actually study this is that even if Iran had nuclear weapons, they would not use it. This is exactly like when in the US the anti-Communist claimed the Communist whole nuke everybody. > Iran also provides funding and weapons to Hamas and Hezbollah, which are both internationally recognized terrorist groups on Israel's borders that launch rockets into the country. And Israel has invaded the Lebanon, is consistently stealing more land from Palestinians, is often bombing West Bank and Gaza. Israel has attacked the Iranian nuclear program and has bombed Iranian forces in Syria. Despite these forces being there based on invitation from the international recognized government of Syria. Why can this not be treated like any other conflict between two nations, where we use the same standards for both governments? > So while Israel is technologically ahead, Iran demonstrates intent to be an aggressor against Israel given the opportunity. In Israel has done the same thing and arguably has done far more. Not to mention the constant and public demands from Israel that the US should attack Iran and bomb them into the stone age. Seriously, go and actually listen to what Israeli politicians from the Likud and even further right wing groups say about what should be done to Iran. And listen to what people in the US government who are friends of Likud say. Bombing them into the stone age, preemptive war and so on. Btw, while Israel accepts that Iran as a country should exists, they do not think the Islamic Republic is legitimate and had a regime change policy for a long time. > In the interest of avoiding a war between Iran and Israel, where I argue there is no real winner when lives are lost, it's worth making sure Iran doesn't have the opportunity to start a war. Israel would much prefer to have peace. Israel has a funny way of showing they want peace in that case. > I agree with the concern about the 1 year claim. Iran definitely has the right to use civilian nuclear power, and I don't know the math behind the 1 year line. It may be that 1 year is the fastest possible amount of time that Iran could conceivably develop a nuke, in which case, I totally agree, it's propaganda to be citing that. As long as the safeguards are in place, Iran can't develop a nuke at all. And from Israels perspective that is exactly the problem. That is exactly why Israel and friends almost went ballistic when Obama showed that Iran could be a international partner with an agreement. Now the buggy-men about Iran nuclear is gone and that makes it impossible for them to ever get the US into a war with Iran. And they know Iran doesn't have the conventional military. What if if 'shock' Iran became a normal country in the international order. That must be prevented at any cost.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

dvh1990 6y ago

Israel can easily get disrupted if they let up. Right now, maybe you're right. But that can change.

shahar2k 6y ago
"disrupted" in the case of Israel though is an euphemism with some deep existential implications.

selfhoster11 6y ago

Their military is so well equipped and organized only because outside pressure from their neighbours forced them to do so. The very existential threat discussed by the parent comment was what put them where they are now.