4 ms·

>How many years of secure operation? I don't believe this is a way of validating the security of a blockchain. Consider the turkey problem as stated in "THE BL

>How many years of secure operation? I don't believe this is a way of validating the security of a blockchain. Consider the turkey problem as stated in "THE BLACK SWAN" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb: "A Turkey is fed for 1000 days by a butcher. Every day confirms to the turkey (and the turkey's economics department, and its risk management department and its analytics department ...) that in fact the butcher loves turkeys. Every day brings more confidence to the statement. Until one day the Turkey is ripe for Thanks Giving". You may very well be correct but I don't think length of time without a fatal error is a valid metric. For me personally, I am in the Bitcoin proof-of-stake camp however I would be lying if I didn't say I also have a position in Ethereum.

iameli 6y ago
Sure, totally fair - days of continued operation would be but one metric of thousands we could use to evaluate the efficacy/security/decentralization of a blockchain. My concern is that no matter which criteria we pick, and no matter how well PoW alternatives perform according to those criteria, miners will never vote to migrate. Bitcoin proof-of-stake would be great, but my concern applies equally to any potential eco-friendly alternatives, whether or not they've yet been invented. I work in the Ethereum ecosystem but my continued support is entirely dependent on the PoS migration... and the same factors that make me nervous about Bitcoin make me nervous for eth2. But I hope they pull it off.
dalmo3 6y ago
Consider the Lindy Effect, also popularized by Taleb: "The Lindy effect is a theorized phenomenon by which the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy." Bitcoin has survived bugs, attacks, forks, bans, smearing... and it all just made it stronger. Antifragile, although very volatile.

iameli 6y ago

Sure, totally fair - days of continued operation would be but one metric of thousands we could use to evaluate the efficacy/security/decentralization of a blockchain. My concern is that no matter which criteria we pick, and no matter how well PoW alternatives perform according to those criteria, miners will never vote to migrate. Bitcoin proof-of-stake would be great, but my concern applies equally to any potential eco-friendly alternatives, whether or not they've yet been invented. I work in the Ethereum ecosystem but my continued support is entirely dependent on the PoS migration... and the same factors that make me nervous about Bitcoin make me nervous for eth2. But I hope they pull it off.

dalmo3 6y ago

Consider the Lindy Effect, also popularized by Taleb: "The Lindy effect is a theorized phenomenon by which the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy." Bitcoin has survived bugs, attacks, forks, bans, smearing... and it all just made it stronger. Antifragile, although very volatile.