5 ms·

Maybe you should write an article about that, and put it up on HN, given that it's such a common point of contention/misunderstanding.

Hammershaft 6y ago
There are people more knowledgeable then me who have made these points better than I could, I'd recommend Vaclav Smil as a great source on this. The problem is that his material makes for grim reading, and I think many people researching this subject are drawn to techno optimism even when the numbers don't add up because the subject as a whole is so grim.
- samvher 6y ago
  Do you have specific recommendations among his writings?
  - Hammershaft 6y ago
    http://vaclavsmil.com/2017/05/08/energy-and-civilization-a-history/ http://vaclavsmil.com/2017/05/08/energy-and-civilization-a-h... I also recommend looking through his list of books on the sidebar.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
ourlordcaffeine 6y ago
The whole "baseline" thing is partly a myth, and there is an article about that https://energypost.eu/dispelling-nuclear-baseload-myth-nothing-renewables-cant-better/ https://energypost.eu/dispelling-nuclear-baseload-myth-nothi...
enaaem 6y ago
This is a good one http://www.withouthotair.com http://www.withouthotair.com. It looks at whole energy plans. Not just wether technology X is cool.
- pfdietz 6y ago
  Isn't that the site that argues the UK cannot get by with renewables, but assumes large amounts of biomass are needed to be grown locally?
  - philipkglass 6y ago
    It's from 2007 and will not get an update since the author has died. I do like it for taking a quantitative approach even though the assumptions used are increasingly outdated. Here's the summary page where the author asked if the UK could supply its energy needs from renewables alone: http://www.withouthotair.com/c18/page_103.shtml http://www.withouthotair.com/c18/page_103.shtml The answer was "not quite." However, he assumed that utility scale solar farms would be using 10% efficient panels. 20% are now widely available. So let's make these two quick edits: - Assume that solar farms provide double the energy from doubled panel efficiency. - Drop biomass, because it's unneeded with better solar farms. With these changes the renewable energy supply of 206 kWh/person/day exceeds modeled demand of 195 kWh/person/day. Making some other simple updates like assuming that car transportation is mostly electrified would further increase the margin of safety.

Hammershaft 6y ago

There are people more knowledgeable then me who have made these points better than I could, I'd recommend Vaclav Smil as a great source on this. The problem is that his material makes for grim reading, and I think many people researching this subject are drawn to techno optimism even when the numbers don't add up because the subject as a whole is so grim.

samvher 6y ago
Do you have specific recommendations among his writings?
- Hammershaft 6y ago
  http://vaclavsmil.com/2017/05/08/energy-and-civilization-a-history/ http://vaclavsmil.com/2017/05/08/energy-and-civilization-a-h... I also recommend looking through his list of books on the sidebar.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]

ourlordcaffeine 6y ago

The whole "baseline" thing is partly a myth, and there is an article about that https://energypost.eu/dispelling-nuclear-baseload-myth-nothing-renewables-cant-better/ https://energypost.eu/dispelling-nuclear-baseload-myth-nothi...

enaaem 6y ago

This is a good one http://www.withouthotair.com http://www.withouthotair.com. It looks at whole energy plans. Not just wether technology X is cool.

pfdietz 6y ago
Isn't that the site that argues the UK cannot get by with renewables, but assumes large amounts of biomass are needed to be grown locally?
- philipkglass 6y ago
  It's from 2007 and will not get an update since the author has died. I do like it for taking a quantitative approach even though the assumptions used are increasingly outdated. Here's the summary page where the author asked if the UK could supply its energy needs from renewables alone: http://www.withouthotair.com/c18/page_103.shtml http://www.withouthotair.com/c18/page_103.shtml The answer was "not quite." However, he assumed that utility scale solar farms would be using 10% efficient panels. 20% are now widely available. So let's make these two quick edits: - Assume that solar farms provide double the energy from doubled panel efficiency. - Drop biomass, because it's unneeded with better solar farms. With these changes the renewable energy supply of 206 kWh/person/day exceeds modeled demand of 195 kWh/person/day. Making some other simple updates like assuming that car transportation is mostly electrified would further increase the margin of safety.