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I want us to get back to reality and fundamentals. These days it feels like the entire fabric of society is falling apart.

vmception 6y ago
ironic writing this right before $2 trillion is about to get distributed to the people by Congress, while the Federal Reserve is still buying corporate bonds across the entire curve and mortgages using money created at the time of transaction.
booleandilemma 6y ago
"In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine." https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/831517-in-the-short-run-the-market-is-a-voting-machine https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/831517-in-the-short-run-the...
- jl2718 6y ago
  But... “the markets will remain irrational longer than you will remain solvent”
  - eafkuor 6y ago
    Doesn't this only apply to short selling? How does that apply if you are just buying stock to hold long term?
    - jl2718 6y ago
      Surely short selling is more relevant, but the ‘weighing’ machine is basically irrelevant compared to speculation. For instance, what companies paid the most dividends over the last 20 years? Are those the companies with the highest valuations over that time? How long of a time horizon do you need to show cash flow value from an investment versus speculative gains? I’m going to pull out my crystal ball and predict that today’s biggest companies in market cap will have below-average dividend performance for the next 20 years compared to the rest of the S&P.
rjbwork 6y ago
It's not going to happen for a while yet. There is more money chasing fewer opportunities so we see equity asset inflation. This is exacerbated by increasing industrial centralization and the longest period of low interest rates on record, causing the average retail investors' only logical choice to be to put it in the market - be that index funds or individual "meme stocks". And if you don't? Inflation will slowly eat away at the money you've worked hard for. Classic TINA and "No Good Choices"/Catch-22. But hey, I've 4x'd and 2x'd my GME bets on both spikes so who am I to talk, really?
- ericmcer 6y ago
  It is kind of miserable though, either invest in a very shaky market, or watch inflation chew through your savings. It would be a fun game if working 40-50 hours a week wasn't the cost of a ticket to play.
  - ManifestTendy 6y ago
    I believe this is an argument for the coin. Pick your poison, really.

vmception 6y ago

ironic writing this right before $2 trillion is about to get distributed to the people by Congress, while the Federal Reserve is still buying corporate bonds across the entire curve and mortgages using money created at the time of transaction.

booleandilemma 6y ago

"In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine." https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/831517-in-the-short-run-the-market-is-a-voting-machine https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/831517-in-the-short-run-the...

jl2718 6y ago
But... “the markets will remain irrational longer than you will remain solvent”
- eafkuor 6y ago
  Doesn't this only apply to short selling? How does that apply if you are just buying stock to hold long term?
  - jl2718 6y ago
    Surely short selling is more relevant, but the ‘weighing’ machine is basically irrelevant compared to speculation. For instance, what companies paid the most dividends over the last 20 years? Are those the companies with the highest valuations over that time? How long of a time horizon do you need to show cash flow value from an investment versus speculative gains? I’m going to pull out my crystal ball and predict that today’s biggest companies in market cap will have below-average dividend performance for the next 20 years compared to the rest of the S&P.

rjbwork 6y ago

It's not going to happen for a while yet. There is more money chasing fewer opportunities so we see equity asset inflation. This is exacerbated by increasing industrial centralization and the longest period of low interest rates on record, causing the average retail investors' only logical choice to be to put it in the market - be that index funds or individual "meme stocks". And if you don't? Inflation will slowly eat away at the money you've worked hard for. Classic TINA and "No Good Choices"/Catch-22. But hey, I've 4x'd and 2x'd my GME bets on both spikes so who am I to talk, really?

ericmcer 6y ago
It is kind of miserable though, either invest in a very shaky market, or watch inflation chew through your savings. It would be a fun game if working 40-50 hours a week wasn't the cost of a ticket to play.
- ManifestTendy 6y ago
  I believe this is an argument for the coin. Pick your poison, really.