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AMD isn't a meme stock - I knew it was going to be a safe bet when it was at 5, but didn't have money to do anything with it. It is guaranteed to exist, as it

AMD isn't a meme stock - I knew it was going to be a safe bet when it was at 5, but didn't have money to do anything with it. It is guaranteed to exist, as it is the only x86 competitor to Intel, and IIRC their x86 license is non-transferable. It is nvidia's only main competitor. It does its job pretty well. Is it a blue chip in terms of stability? Clearly it is a bit more volatile. But it isn't dying anytime soon.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
perardi 6y ago
I give myself one good hard slap to the face every morning, because I bought AMD in the ~$5/share range, and then sold when it managed to get to ~$7/share because I didn’t think it was going anywhere. And then I go stand at the window and gaze longingly at my imaginary WRX parked outside. Sigh. If I only had known exactly how badly Intel would do…I bought the stock because I figured they’d get a little bump because of console sales, and then got impatient.
- camjohnson26 6y ago
  It’s all gambling. People need to stop expecting to strike it rich and just build wealth incrementally. Central banks have made that hard to do though with historically low interest rates and rising risks of inflation.
  - perardi 6y ago
    Mind you, the vast majority of my retirement money is in index funds and other boring investment vehicles. The AMD trade was (reasonable) fun money.
  - JoeAltmaier 6y ago
    Sounds like advice for a previous generation. Then, it contradicts itself by say why it won't work (correctly). Maybe its time to rethink those half-century-old memes like 'build wealth incrementally'.
    - camjohnson26 6y ago
      “This time it’s different” Nothing has changed except central bank policy encouraging rampant speculation. The bull market won’t last forever and every generation thinks the fundamentals don’t matter anymore, until suddenly they do. To be fair it is extremely hard to build wealth incrementally these days because of central bank policy, but it’s way better than yoloing life savings.
      - lotsofpulp 6y ago
        Is it possible the bull market reflects the realities of big businesses, and tech businesses especially, reaping the rewards of automation and scalability and near zero marginal costs?
        camjohnson26 6y ago
        Anything is possible. That's probably true for Apple and Amazon but those are the exception. That's definitely not true for Uber, who lost 8.5 Billion (!) from operations in 2019: https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001543151/f272e038-1c89-456c-acf8-cea0cffe544d.pdf https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001543151/f272e03... Not true for WeWork either: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1533523/000119312519220499/d781982ds1.htm#toc781982_10 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1533523/000119312519... Maybe those are exceptions too but seems like the most hyped companies have not brought marginal costs near zero.
        lotsofpulp 6y ago
        What does "most hyped" mean? Why does WeWork matter at all in this discussion? They got destroyed for having weak prospects when they tried to come near the public markets. I'm looking at this list of the S&P 500 companies, and they mostly have very solid earnings and fundamentals: https://fknol.com/list/market-cap-sp-500-index-companies.php https://fknol.com/list/market-cap-sp-500-index-companies.php I went through the top 100 companies, and the only one that is a "bet" is Tesla, except they have many, many cars on the road and have been delivering product that people want to buy. If anything, I'm even more bullish for all these huge companies, as absent any government action (which I doubt), who is going to take them on? They will continue to go vertical and eat each other's business, maybe. But that doesn't really affect you if you're holding the whole index fund ETF.
camjohnson26 6y ago
Respectfully those are meme stock arguments. A company can have all those things and be worth between 0 and 1 trillion, the question is whether the company is valued accurately by the markets and worth the price. Tesla is valued at what Apple was in 2019, but hasn’t made any profit ever without tax credits. AMD is at $100 billion, which seems high but could be worth it. Doesn’t matter if they mismanage cash and have to be acquired though.
- scsilver 6y ago
  This is starting to feel like a moral crusade when that investment reasoning is consided meme/speculative arguments. I know retirement planners who manage 200m in asse6s who have been in business for 30+ years who look at the same reasonings as that. You cant really find an undervalued stop without some sort of assumptions. Might as well just buy an index fund.
  - camjohnson26 6y ago
    It is a moral crusade to try to get people to understand risk. I can go all in on TSLA call options and make a killing and think I understand how markets work, but the risk I’m taking on by doing that is ridiculous. I’d like to know how those 30 year experience retirement planners did in 01 or 08. Bubbles happen because investors become comfortable taking huge risks that are unlikely to happen, but when they do they get crushed. Picking up pennies on front of a steamroller.
- unethical_ban 6y ago
  No, they're stock arguments. They're "fundamentals". Did I look at their balance sheet, no. But asking questions about their competition and likelihood of being around and healthy in a few years isn't meme. Even "Hey this has short 140% of float" isn't a meme stock thing. The definition of "meme" stock is it being a meme - is it getting hyped up on social media and reddit with inside jokes and collective action (as much as they pretend it isn't collective action).
  - camjohnson26 6y ago
jboog 6y ago
Because a company is going to exist doesn't mean it's going to jump 10x+ in value in a few years. I remember following the WSB AMD memery several years ago and no one really predicted what would actually happen over the ensuing years. Intel shit the bed on some key foundry investments and AMD had some chip breakthroughs to capitalize on their screwup. So yeah, some people ended up being right that AMD would do well but I never saw anyone predict WHY. ANd I can point you to many many that were predicted to do gangbusters and never amounted to anything, funny those always get forgotten.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

perardi 6y ago

I give myself one good hard slap to the face every morning, because I bought AMD in the ~$5/share range, and then sold when it managed to get to ~$7/share because I didn’t think it was going anywhere. And then I go stand at the window and gaze longingly at my imaginary WRX parked outside. Sigh. If I only had known exactly how badly Intel would do…I bought the stock because I figured they’d get a little bump because of console sales, and then got impatient.

camjohnson26 6y ago
It’s all gambling. People need to stop expecting to strike it rich and just build wealth incrementally. Central banks have made that hard to do though with historically low interest rates and rising risks of inflation.
- perardi 6y ago
  Mind you, the vast majority of my retirement money is in index funds and other boring investment vehicles. The AMD trade was (reasonable) fun money.
- JoeAltmaier 6y ago
  Sounds like advice for a previous generation. Then, it contradicts itself by say why it won't work (correctly). Maybe its time to rethink those half-century-old memes like 'build wealth incrementally'.
  - camjohnson26 6y ago
    “This time it’s different” Nothing has changed except central bank policy encouraging rampant speculation. The bull market won’t last forever and every generation thinks the fundamentals don’t matter anymore, until suddenly they do. To be fair it is extremely hard to build wealth incrementally these days because of central bank policy, but it’s way better than yoloing life savings.
    - lotsofpulp 6y ago
      Is it possible the bull market reflects the realities of big businesses, and tech businesses especially, reaping the rewards of automation and scalability and near zero marginal costs?
      - camjohnson26 6y ago
        Anything is possible. That's probably true for Apple and Amazon but those are the exception. That's definitely not true for Uber, who lost 8.5 Billion (!) from operations in 2019: https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001543151/f272e038-1c89-456c-acf8-cea0cffe544d.pdf https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001543151/f272e03... Not true for WeWork either: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1533523/000119312519220499/d781982ds1.htm#toc781982_10 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1533523/000119312519... Maybe those are exceptions too but seems like the most hyped companies have not brought marginal costs near zero.
        lotsofpulp 6y ago
        What does "most hyped" mean? Why does WeWork matter at all in this discussion? They got destroyed for having weak prospects when they tried to come near the public markets. I'm looking at this list of the S&P 500 companies, and they mostly have very solid earnings and fundamentals: https://fknol.com/list/market-cap-sp-500-index-companies.php https://fknol.com/list/market-cap-sp-500-index-companies.php I went through the top 100 companies, and the only one that is a "bet" is Tesla, except they have many, many cars on the road and have been delivering product that people want to buy. If anything, I'm even more bullish for all these huge companies, as absent any government action (which I doubt), who is going to take them on? They will continue to go vertical and eat each other's business, maybe. But that doesn't really affect you if you're holding the whole index fund ETF.

camjohnson26 6y ago

Respectfully those are meme stock arguments. A company can have all those things and be worth between 0 and 1 trillion, the question is whether the company is valued accurately by the markets and worth the price. Tesla is valued at what Apple was in 2019, but hasn’t made any profit ever without tax credits. AMD is at $100 billion, which seems high but could be worth it. Doesn’t matter if they mismanage cash and have to be acquired though.

scsilver 6y ago
This is starting to feel like a moral crusade when that investment reasoning is consided meme/speculative arguments. I know retirement planners who manage 200m in asse6s who have been in business for 30+ years who look at the same reasonings as that. You cant really find an undervalued stop without some sort of assumptions. Might as well just buy an index fund.
- camjohnson26 6y ago
  It is a moral crusade to try to get people to understand risk. I can go all in on TSLA call options and make a killing and think I understand how markets work, but the risk I’m taking on by doing that is ridiculous. I’d like to know how those 30 year experience retirement planners did in 01 or 08. Bubbles happen because investors become comfortable taking huge risks that are unlikely to happen, but when they do they get crushed. Picking up pennies on front of a steamroller.
unethical_ban 6y ago
No, they're stock arguments. They're "fundamentals". Did I look at their balance sheet, no. But asking questions about their competition and likelihood of being around and healthy in a few years isn't meme. Even "Hey this has short 140% of float" isn't a meme stock thing. The definition of "meme" stock is it being a meme - is it getting hyped up on social media and reddit with inside jokes and collective action (as much as they pretend it isn't collective action).
- camjohnson26 6y ago

jboog 6y ago

Because a company is going to exist doesn't mean it's going to jump 10x+ in value in a few years. I remember following the WSB AMD memery several years ago and no one really predicted what would actually happen over the ensuing years. Intel shit the bed on some key foundry investments and AMD had some chip breakthroughs to capitalize on their screwup. So yeah, some people ended up being right that AMD would do well but I never saw anyone predict WHY. ANd I can point you to many many that were predicted to do gangbusters and never amounted to anything, funny those always get forgotten.