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I think this is like asking "which batter will do better, the one who swings low and inside or the one who swings high and outside?". Ok, I don't really follow
by eagsalazar2 6y ago
I think this is like asking "which batter will do better, the one who swings low and inside or the one who swings high and outside?". Ok, I don't really follow baseball so maybe the metaphor is broken but my point is - it depends on what the situation requires and there is no way to predict that in advance. For any tendency or trait an individual demonstrates there will be times when that trait results in success or failure.
It is silly to generalize about which is "better" or more likely to succeed because an "ecosystem" will by design contain both so that as a whole the ecosystem is robust to a variety of unforeseen situations (or nothing happening).
In humans you have people who are specialists or generalists, bold or conservative, jay walkers or rule followers, finicky eaters or people who eat pizza that's been on the counter for a week, gamblers or savers, etc, etc. In every case there will be specific examples that make you think "damn I really wish I'd sunk my life savings into BTC 10 years ago!" but that doesn't make you "right" or "wrong" except in hindsight.
Humans (and other populations) should be judged on the spectrum of behaviors they exhibit and how that allows them to succeed in the specific distribution of challenges they face. Judging individuals seems pretty pointless, I guess, unless you are judging yourself and feeling unhappy with the specific tendencies genetics and your upbringing have dealt you. Anyway, just an interesting thing to consider.
- faeyanpiraat 6y agoThe point is that you can calculate odds of success. Yes, you cannot predict the future precisely, but if you can estimate, that there is an X chance that in the future 70% specialists and 30% generalists are required, and the population will be 50/50 generalist/specialist, then you can make an informed decision which path should you choose if your goal is money/job security. You may proven to be wrong, you may turn out not to be a good fit at all in your chosen role, but at least you took a calculated risk, instead of gambling.
- sokoloff 6y agoTo find differentiated success as a specialist in such a world, you need that imbalance of supply and demand and to have a relevant specialty. A specialist in buggy whip making or blood-letting can still likely suffer for a lack of demand for their specialty relative to the supply that they’re offering, even if the global demand for specialists is high.