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For Musk his bullshitting is still nowhere close to the competitors, who said for a long time that they can manufacture millions of electric cars if they really

For Musk his bullshitting is still nowhere close to the competitors, who said for a long time that they can manufacture millions of electric cars if they really want to. When I told my friend about self driving Tesla who's a BMW fan, he said that BMW will just sell self driving cars when it's ready. Really? Without gathering any data? I'd say BMW is the bigger bullshitter. Elon needs to update the computers maybe, but everything else in the cars is ready for self driving im the near future.

dheera 6y ago
> his bullshitting is still nowhere close to the competitors I mean, as I said, the whole stock market is full of bullshit. My point is the system is designed to incentivize bullshitting, so it's expected given the incentive system created. Companies that don't bullshit don't win, and if that's the loss function you define, bullshit is what you're going to get. > everything else in the cars is ready for self driving I disagree with this. I think significant hardware upgrades to Tesla cars will be necessary to achieve L4. Any attempts at L4 without those upgrades will result in a lot of accidents. I won't be surprised if they come out 5 years from now asking former Tesla owners to get their cars retrofitted with some new sensors if they want L4. L2 is achievable with their existing hardware and that's what they are doing.
- Isinlor 6y ago
  They already evaluated retrofiring sensors. Doing it would cost about as much as a new car. They've made a bet that this sensor suite will be enough and I'm sure Musk got green light on it from his team. Time will tell if they were right. I personally agree with them that technologies like PseudoLIDAR will be sufficient. I believe that for a good human driver Tesla sensor suite would be sufficient to drive safely if you covered all windows. You could project the camera views on covered windows and keep the current bird eye visualization. The issue really is with control of the car. Deep Reinforcement learning sucks. Training Deep RL is unstable, hyper-parameter sensitive, even random-seed sensitive, and requires ridiculous amount of data for even the simplest applications. And after training it does not generalize.
brokenmachine 6y ago
>everything else in the cars is ready for self driving im the near future Completely false.
abenga 6y ago
They can get a license to use Waymo hardware/software in their cars, right?

dheera 6y ago

> his bullshitting is still nowhere close to the competitors I mean, as I said, the whole stock market is full of bullshit. My point is the system is designed to incentivize bullshitting, so it's expected given the incentive system created. Companies that don't bullshit don't win, and if that's the loss function you define, bullshit is what you're going to get. > everything else in the cars is ready for self driving I disagree with this. I think significant hardware upgrades to Tesla cars will be necessary to achieve L4. Any attempts at L4 without those upgrades will result in a lot of accidents. I won't be surprised if they come out 5 years from now asking former Tesla owners to get their cars retrofitted with some new sensors if they want L4. L2 is achievable with their existing hardware and that's what they are doing.

Isinlor 6y ago
They already evaluated retrofiring sensors. Doing it would cost about as much as a new car. They've made a bet that this sensor suite will be enough and I'm sure Musk got green light on it from his team. Time will tell if they were right. I personally agree with them that technologies like PseudoLIDAR will be sufficient. I believe that for a good human driver Tesla sensor suite would be sufficient to drive safely if you covered all windows. You could project the camera views on covered windows and keep the current bird eye visualization. The issue really is with control of the car. Deep Reinforcement learning sucks. Training Deep RL is unstable, hyper-parameter sensitive, even random-seed sensitive, and requires ridiculous amount of data for even the simplest applications. And after training it does not generalize.

brokenmachine 6y ago

>everything else in the cars is ready for self driving im the near future Completely false.

abenga 6y ago

They can get a license to use Waymo hardware/software in their cars, right?