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> The problem is (a) the stock market is full of idiots that won't listen to real engineers like us So you are a real engineer and Musk is not? > begin to und

• dheera 6y ago
  > So you are a real engineer and Musk is not? Real engineers don't bullshit. Real engineers understand that there is a certain responsibility that comes with people trusting their lives to their engineering skills. Real engineers can give you confidences on everything in hard numbers with data. Real engineers can provide realistic estimates of timelines. Real engineers make mistakes sometimes, admit them candidly, and know perfectly well how to adjust those timelines based on past estimate errors and extrapolate adjusted project timeline estimates with basic math. Real engineers know the limits of systems and how to write spec sheets that describe them accurately. Real engineers don't always know the answer to every question, and know when to say "I don't know". It's managers, investors, analysts, and sometimes customers who don't want to listen to those extrapolations and estimates and uncertainty. And so many real engineers gradually become increasingly fake, because the other (corrupt) parts of the system spread their toxic thinking into the engineering. I have a lot of respect for Musk, who was a real engineer, probably REALLY wants to stay a real engineer, and is still mostly an engineer. But he is indeed forced to be a part-time <strike>bullshitter</strike> non-engineer by the system, which demands bullshit by its very incentive structure.
  • xiphias2 6y ago
    For Musk his bullshitting is still nowhere close to the competitors, who said for a long time that they can manufacture millions of electric cars if they really want to. When I told my friend about self driving Tesla who's a BMW fan, he said that BMW will just sell self driving cars when it's ready. Really? Without gathering any data? I'd say BMW is the bigger bullshitter. Elon needs to update the computers maybe, but everything else in the cars is ready for self driving im the near future.
    • dheera 6y ago
      > his bullshitting is still nowhere close to the competitors I mean, as I said, the whole stock market is full of bullshit. My point is the system is designed to incentivize bullshitting, so it's expected given the incentive system created. Companies that don't bullshit don't win, and if that's the loss function you define, bullshit is what you're going to get. > everything else in the cars is ready for self driving I disagree with this. I think significant hardware upgrades to Tesla cars will be necessary to achieve L4. Any attempts at L4 without those upgrades will result in a lot of accidents. I won't be surprised if they come out 5 years from now asking former Tesla owners to get their cars retrofitted with some new sensors if they want L4. L2 is achievable with their existing hardware and that's what they are doing.
      • Isinlor 6y ago
        They already evaluated retrofiring sensors. Doing it would cost about as much as a new car. They've made a bet that this sensor suite will be enough and I'm sure Musk got green light on it from his team. Time will tell if they were right. I personally agree with them that technologies like PseudoLIDAR will be sufficient. I believe that for a good human driver Tesla sensor suite would be sufficient to drive safely if you covered all windows. You could project the camera views on covered windows and keep the current bird eye visualization. The issue really is with control of the car. Deep Reinforcement learning sucks. Training Deep RL is unstable, hyper-parameter sensitive, even random-seed sensitive, and requires ridiculous amount of data for even the simplest applications. And after training it does not generalize.
    • brokenmachine 6y ago
      >everything else in the cars is ready for self driving im the near future Completely false.
    • abenga 6y ago
      They can get a license to use Waymo hardware/software in their cars, right?