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We're coming up on a year of restrictions now, and many countries simply haven't seen much protest activity. Politics in some Asian and European countries is ve

We're coming up on a year of restrictions now, and many countries simply haven't seen much protest activity. Politics in some Asian and European countries is very much consensus-based, and if the main parties have converged on the idea of maintaining some level of social distancing, there isn’t much space for the populace to voice opposition to that. Large protests in those countries tend to be unlikely because 1) protests have been banned on epidemological grounds, and the authorities have made it clear that any protest will be swiftly suppressed by the police, and 2) QAnon and antivaxxer conspiracy theorists tend to be very visible at protests, and normal people are unwilling to be associated with that. So, the bulk of the population is not going to be willing to go out and protest.

dj_mc_merlin 6y ago
I live in the Netherlands, and there definitely has been a great deal of protesting and general mayhem. More than a dozen cities had large protests, vandalism.. we had a group chat where people told others about places where this was going to happen in my city, in our case to avoid them, but for others to coordinate. Mind you, heavy lockdown measures have only been here for a couple of months. I have no doubt if the government makes a step towards keeping it for years, the protests will reignite. Regarding 1), that stops absolutely nobody here. The city center is bustling with crowds, and protests for other issues still happen, there is no "police squashing". 2), that is a USA-centric view. There is little QAnon talk over here.
- Mediterraneo10 6y ago
  A lot of the news coverage of the Netherlands protests has been saying that they aren’t principled people disagreeing with COVID policy, but rather just young and marginalized people enjoying a chance to go wild and engage in vandalism. (Just like the 2005 French car-torchings were only very slightly based on minority grievances, and otherwise just young people going crazy.) Meanwhile, polls show that the Dutch population broadly supports the restrictions. As someone there in the country, do you feel this is inaccurate? And no, not an American-centric view. QAnon has become a very visible thing in anti-lockdown social media and protests here in Eastern Europe.
  - dj_mc_merlin 6y ago
    The news coverage of "rowdy" protests is always the same: "not real protesters, young people going crazy". Mostly regurgitations from the police chief and the mayor, who obviously have incentive to downplay the intentions of the protesters. They are not completely wrong, of course, but you should take what they say with a grain of salt. > As someone there in the country, do you feel this is inaccurate? It's split. Some support the current measures. Some do not. Privately, in my own experience, most are much more unhappy with the measures than they let on publicly. The common phrasing I hear from the hopefuls is "at least it might end soon". If it does not, they might have a change of mind. > QAnon has become a very visible thing in anti-lockdown social media and protests here in Eastern Europe. Yes, in Eastern Europe that might be true.. over here, I would be hard pressed to find someone who has even heard of it.
    - Ichthypresbyter 6y ago
      My view from the Netherlands is that days getting longer will be an issue. If the 9 pm curfew is still in effect when it's still light outside at 9 pm, it will be disobeyed much more widely. Currently it has been extended until the evening of March 30 (which is two days after the clocks go forward for spring). That evening, the sun will set at 8.11 pm in Amsterdam. A further (hypothetical) three-week extension would AIUI take it to the point where the curfew would come into effect before the streetlights came on.
      - dj_mc_merlin 6y ago
        Very good point! Due to the relaxing of rules around outside crowds and sports, I have good hope they will remove or at least extend the curfew past 9PM.
csnover 6y ago
Instead of looking for protests, perhaps a better (though still imperfect) signal to gauge sentiment about living under pandemic restrictions is to look at how much vaccine demand there is, and how aggressively some governments have acted to ease restrictions. After all, there aren’t constant protests in prisons, either, and I don’t think you’ll find many people saying they’re better off imprisoned than they were on the outside. (Yes, there are outliers—let’s not argue making the exception into the rule.) If most people were truly comfortable with the status quo, it seems pretty unlikely to me that there would be such overwhelming demand for vaccines, nor does it seem like there would be a constant push to (often prematurely) end pandemic restrictions in so many areas. I’ve been unable to find any poll asking people specifically about whether they enjoy the restrictions, so I can’t give a definitive answer, but the preponderance of evidence suggests that if people could wave a magic wand and make the pandemic go away tomorrow, they would. And that’s after only a year of relatively minor restrictions on daily life, not 5 or 10 or 50 years of being held in captivity.
- Marsymars 6y ago
  > And that’s after only a year of relatively minor restrictions on daily life, not 5 or 10 or 50 years of being held in captivity. Not to understate the restriction involved in being imprisoned, but “relatively minor restrictions on daily life” is really understating the experience of many people over the past year. I haven’t seen my parents, sibling, 1-year-old nephew, most of my friends, and any of my co-workers in over a year. I haven’t taken any vacation time because there’s nowhere to go and nothing to do. I’m fortunate that I’m comfortably employed, but none of my regular activities are happening, so my life is essentially in a holding pattern where every day is just some variation of working from home, cooking for myself, working out by myself, and reading.

dj_mc_merlin 6y ago

I live in the Netherlands, and there definitely has been a great deal of protesting and general mayhem. More than a dozen cities had large protests, vandalism.. we had a group chat where people told others about places where this was going to happen in my city, in our case to avoid them, but for others to coordinate. Mind you, heavy lockdown measures have only been here for a couple of months. I have no doubt if the government makes a step towards keeping it for years, the protests will reignite. Regarding 1), that stops absolutely nobody here. The city center is bustling with crowds, and protests for other issues still happen, there is no "police squashing". 2), that is a USA-centric view. There is little QAnon talk over here.

Mediterraneo10 6y ago
A lot of the news coverage of the Netherlands protests has been saying that they aren’t principled people disagreeing with COVID policy, but rather just young and marginalized people enjoying a chance to go wild and engage in vandalism. (Just like the 2005 French car-torchings were only very slightly based on minority grievances, and otherwise just young people going crazy.) Meanwhile, polls show that the Dutch population broadly supports the restrictions. As someone there in the country, do you feel this is inaccurate? And no, not an American-centric view. QAnon has become a very visible thing in anti-lockdown social media and protests here in Eastern Europe.
- dj_mc_merlin 6y ago
  The news coverage of "rowdy" protests is always the same: "not real protesters, young people going crazy". Mostly regurgitations from the police chief and the mayor, who obviously have incentive to downplay the intentions of the protesters. They are not completely wrong, of course, but you should take what they say with a grain of salt. > As someone there in the country, do you feel this is inaccurate? It's split. Some support the current measures. Some do not. Privately, in my own experience, most are much more unhappy with the measures than they let on publicly. The common phrasing I hear from the hopefuls is "at least it might end soon". If it does not, they might have a change of mind. > QAnon has become a very visible thing in anti-lockdown social media and protests here in Eastern Europe. Yes, in Eastern Europe that might be true.. over here, I would be hard pressed to find someone who has even heard of it.
  - Ichthypresbyter 6y ago
    My view from the Netherlands is that days getting longer will be an issue. If the 9 pm curfew is still in effect when it's still light outside at 9 pm, it will be disobeyed much more widely. Currently it has been extended until the evening of March 30 (which is two days after the clocks go forward for spring). That evening, the sun will set at 8.11 pm in Amsterdam. A further (hypothetical) three-week extension would AIUI take it to the point where the curfew would come into effect before the streetlights came on.
    - dj_mc_merlin 6y ago
      Very good point! Due to the relaxing of rules around outside crowds and sports, I have good hope they will remove or at least extend the curfew past 9PM.

csnover 6y ago

Instead of looking for protests, perhaps a better (though still imperfect) signal to gauge sentiment about living under pandemic restrictions is to look at how much vaccine demand there is, and how aggressively some governments have acted to ease restrictions. After all, there aren’t constant protests in prisons, either, and I don’t think you’ll find many people saying they’re better off imprisoned than they were on the outside. (Yes, there are outliers—let’s not argue making the exception into the rule.) If most people were truly comfortable with the status quo, it seems pretty unlikely to me that there would be such overwhelming demand for vaccines, nor does it seem like there would be a constant push to (often prematurely) end pandemic restrictions in so many areas. I’ve been unable to find any poll asking people specifically about whether they enjoy the restrictions, so I can’t give a definitive answer, but the preponderance of evidence suggests that if people could wave a magic wand and make the pandemic go away tomorrow, they would. And that’s after only a year of relatively minor restrictions on daily life, not 5 or 10 or 50 years of being held in captivity.

Marsymars 6y ago
> And that’s after only a year of relatively minor restrictions on daily life, not 5 or 10 or 50 years of being held in captivity. Not to understate the restriction involved in being imprisoned, but “relatively minor restrictions on daily life” is really understating the experience of many people over the past year. I haven’t seen my parents, sibling, 1-year-old nephew, most of my friends, and any of my co-workers in over a year. I haven’t taken any vacation time because there’s nowhere to go and nothing to do. I’m fortunate that I’m comfortably employed, but none of my regular activities are happening, so my life is essentially in a holding pattern where every day is just some variation of working from home, cooking for myself, working out by myself, and reading.