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Sometimes Elon time is spot on even if it is very optimistic. There was an interview with him in 2008 saying he thought Tesla could deliver 500,000 vehicles a y

by SEJeff 6y ago

Sometimes Elon time is spot on even if it is very optimistic. There was an interview with him in 2008 saying he thought Tesla could deliver 500,000 vehicles a year by 2020 and they basically made that even with the pandemic. My hot take was that they skydiver maneuver and landing flip would be the hardest part for starship. They've actually done that part perfectly three times now, but haven't fully nailed the landing bit.

ncallaway 6y ago
> My hot take was that they skydiver maneuver and landing flip would be the hardest part for starship. I mostly agree with this. I put both the landing flip maneuver and the heat-shield system on about the same level of difficulty for Starship. I think they've worked through the hinkiest bits of the landing flip with SN10 (though with some raptor relight stability being potentially a long-ish tail of improving). I'm curious to see how their heat-shielding mechanism works out. If they can built a heat shield system that works for orbital re-entry and is rapidly refurbishable, I'll be very happy that Starship will be able to meet the extreme goals SpaceX has created for it.
- nickik 6y ago
  Surprisingly the delay actually happened because of the structures. Not the landing. It took them way longer then anybody thought to produce the large tanks. If you look at timeline when they started in Boca, they thought they could do hops way sooner.
_ph_ 6y ago
Indeed. Before the first test flight, I was skeptical whether they can control the aerodynamic flight with those flaps. While they demonstrated their capabilities to control a rocket with the engines with the F9. But the one thing that seems to be rock stable is the aerodynamic control in the belly-down flight phase. The only issues were with the soft landing phase and that was related to fuel and engine problems. So I am absolutely not worried that SpaceX is going to figure that out soon. For me, there is only one big thing left to show: whether a starship with heat tiling can withstand the reentry.

by SEJeff 6y ago

ncallaway 6y ago

> My hot take was that they skydiver maneuver and landing flip would be the hardest part for starship. I mostly agree with this. I put both the landing flip maneuver and the heat-shield system on about the same level of difficulty for Starship. I think they've worked through the hinkiest bits of the landing flip with SN10 (though with some raptor relight stability being potentially a long-ish tail of improving). I'm curious to see how their heat-shielding mechanism works out. If they can built a heat shield system that works for orbital re-entry and is rapidly refurbishable, I'll be very happy that Starship will be able to meet the extreme goals SpaceX has created for it.

nickik 6y ago
Surprisingly the delay actually happened because of the structures. Not the landing. It took them way longer then anybody thought to produce the large tanks. If you look at timeline when they started in Boca, they thought they could do hops way sooner.

_ph_ 6y ago

Indeed. Before the first test flight, I was skeptical whether they can control the aerodynamic flight with those flaps. While they demonstrated their capabilities to control a rocket with the engines with the F9. But the one thing that seems to be rock stable is the aerodynamic control in the belly-down flight phase. The only issues were with the soft landing phase and that was related to fuel and engine problems. So I am absolutely not worried that SpaceX is going to figure that out soon. For me, there is only one big thing left to show: whether a starship with heat tiling can withstand the reentry.