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From the article: > In the U.S., prices rose close to 3% in the year ending Jan. 2, according to NielsenIQ, roughly double the overall rate of inflation. The

From the article: > In the U.S., prices rose close to 3% in the year ending Jan. 2, according to NielsenIQ, roughly double the overall rate of inflation. The study found that food prices are rising faster than inflation. 3% is high, and 1.5% over inflation is also concerning, but I think a lot of people are jumping to conclusions based on the headline. Those inflation numbers would go unnoticed by most during normal times. We’re only seeing these headlines because inflation is a popular media topic right now.

AuthorizedCust 6y ago
Do we have a way of seeing periodic media obsessions? Seems like a good AI challenge, although would require a good corpus. I saw another analysis suggesting a 75% drop in media coverage of Biden vs. Trump, at this same point in each’s presidency. That’s a useful statistic that I have a hard time finding in a comprehensive way.
- sandworm101 6y ago
  >> Do we have a way of seeing periodic media obsessions? We have dozens. Countless companies have tools to show you how things are happening on social media, and all the big new outlets mirror their content to social media. At the most simple level, basic word counts can track how issues appear and disappear. When you hear about a 75% drop in coverage of "Biden v. Trump" that is almost certainly taken from the number of times those two names are included in news reports. Counting words or highlighting the use of new words does not require AI.
  - AuthorizedCust 6y ago
    Topic modeling is a better technique than simple word counts. Topic modeling can use ML.
evrydayhustling 6y ago
Disagree that this is alarmism. The question is whether the way inflation is being measured matches the way we use it to make decisions. Graphs like AEI's Chart of the Century [1] have been highlighting for years that inflation numbers are inappropriately averaging decreasing costs for discretionary purchases, while costs for essentials like healthcare and education grow out of control. When food also starts outpacing the average (historically it has paralleled wages in the USA), you really have to ask what inflation is measuring. Low inflation is essential to justifying the monetary easing policies that have been sustaining the stock market through the pandemic... so it is important for everyone to keep an eye on how dialog changes around these numbers. [1] https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/chart-of-the-day-or-century-3/ https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/chart-of-the-day-or-century-3...
- bradleyjg 6y ago
  Education and healthcare have pathological cost growth in large part because they aren’t subject to ordinary market pressures (the consumers are either over a barrel and can’t say no or aren’t paying in the first place). We need to fix them but it would be a mistake to let those pathologies drive monetary policy.
  - evrydayhustling 6y ago
    I don't have many proactive opinions about monetary policy, but it's worth noting that health care and education together make up 25% of US dollar-valued GDP and significantly more than that of GDP growth. If their pathologies enable them to successfully suck up spare dollars, that is a meaningful hole in the bucket for efforts meant to impact other behaviors.
- PragmaticPulp 6y ago
  The food inflation number was isolated in the article to be around 3%. Much of that increase can be traced back to increased shipping costs during COVID lockdown. Monetary policy isn’t the only or even the primary driver of inflation. In this case, the inflation comes from increases demand on a portion of the food supply chain (shipping services). The alarmism in the comment section largely comes from people misreading the headline. The article is about soaring food costs in developing nations, but the comment section is treating the headline as if it’s about US food prices.
  - evrydayhustling 6y ago
    The article also discussed the fact that US prices are temporarily buffered by the supply chain but that big providers like GM are discussing price increases do to sustained cost increases. This is alongside existing practices like shrinkflation that make it harder for a CPI to accurately benchmark costs. It makes sense that articles and readers are looking for leading indicators.
  - nonidentified 6y ago
    > Monetary policy isn’t the only or even the primary driver of inflation. After two degrees in economics, my perception is that monetary policy is definitely considered a primary driver of inflation, probably THE primary driver. But this is probably irrelevant - see below. > In this case, the inflation comes from increases demand on a portion of the food supply chain (shipping services). Yes, for example: "in North America... a shortage of both shipping containers and truck drivers". > The alarmism in the comment section largely comes from people misreading the headline. To me, it feels alarmist for Bloomberg to consistently say "inflation" instead of "price increases" throughout the article. A temporary problem with supply/demand is not the same as inflation. Food prices will almost certainly fall back to their normal trajectory within a year or two, once supply/demand normalizes, whereas if there was truly inflation that would almost certainly NOT occur.

AuthorizedCust 6y ago

Do we have a way of seeing periodic media obsessions? Seems like a good AI challenge, although would require a good corpus. I saw another analysis suggesting a 75% drop in media coverage of Biden vs. Trump, at this same point in each’s presidency. That’s a useful statistic that I have a hard time finding in a comprehensive way.

sandworm101 6y ago
>> Do we have a way of seeing periodic media obsessions? We have dozens. Countless companies have tools to show you how things are happening on social media, and all the big new outlets mirror their content to social media. At the most simple level, basic word counts can track how issues appear and disappear. When you hear about a 75% drop in coverage of "Biden v. Trump" that is almost certainly taken from the number of times those two names are included in news reports. Counting words or highlighting the use of new words does not require AI.
- AuthorizedCust 6y ago
  Topic modeling is a better technique than simple word counts. Topic modeling can use ML.

evrydayhustling 6y ago

Disagree that this is alarmism. The question is whether the way inflation is being measured matches the way we use it to make decisions. Graphs like AEI's Chart of the Century [1] have been highlighting for years that inflation numbers are inappropriately averaging decreasing costs for discretionary purchases, while costs for essentials like healthcare and education grow out of control. When food also starts outpacing the average (historically it has paralleled wages in the USA), you really have to ask what inflation is measuring. Low inflation is essential to justifying the monetary easing policies that have been sustaining the stock market through the pandemic... so it is important for everyone to keep an eye on how dialog changes around these numbers. [1] https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/chart-of-the-day-or-century-3/ https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/chart-of-the-day-or-century-3...

bradleyjg 6y ago
Education and healthcare have pathological cost growth in large part because they aren’t subject to ordinary market pressures (the consumers are either over a barrel and can’t say no or aren’t paying in the first place). We need to fix them but it would be a mistake to let those pathologies drive monetary policy.
- evrydayhustling 6y ago
  I don't have many proactive opinions about monetary policy, but it's worth noting that health care and education together make up 25% of US dollar-valued GDP and significantly more than that of GDP growth. If their pathologies enable them to successfully suck up spare dollars, that is a meaningful hole in the bucket for efforts meant to impact other behaviors.
PragmaticPulp 6y ago
The food inflation number was isolated in the article to be around 3%. Much of that increase can be traced back to increased shipping costs during COVID lockdown. Monetary policy isn’t the only or even the primary driver of inflation. In this case, the inflation comes from increases demand on a portion of the food supply chain (shipping services). The alarmism in the comment section largely comes from people misreading the headline. The article is about soaring food costs in developing nations, but the comment section is treating the headline as if it’s about US food prices.
- evrydayhustling 6y ago
  The article also discussed the fact that US prices are temporarily buffered by the supply chain but that big providers like GM are discussing price increases do to sustained cost increases. This is alongside existing practices like shrinkflation that make it harder for a CPI to accurately benchmark costs. It makes sense that articles and readers are looking for leading indicators.
- nonidentified 6y ago
  > Monetary policy isn’t the only or even the primary driver of inflation. After two degrees in economics, my perception is that monetary policy is definitely considered a primary driver of inflation, probably THE primary driver. But this is probably irrelevant - see below. > In this case, the inflation comes from increases demand on a portion of the food supply chain (shipping services). Yes, for example: "in North America... a shortage of both shipping containers and truck drivers". > The alarmism in the comment section largely comes from people misreading the headline. To me, it feels alarmist for Bloomberg to consistently say "inflation" instead of "price increases" throughout the article. A temporary problem with supply/demand is not the same as inflation. Food prices will almost certainly fall back to their normal trajectory within a year or two, once supply/demand normalizes, whereas if there was truly inflation that would almost certainly NOT occur.