10 ms·

I think that the errors you are making are that EE does not do away with expected utility, and expected utility is not a strict requirement for the development

by mrow84 6y ago

I think that the errors you are making are that EE does not do away with expected utility, and expected utility is not a strict requirement for the development of a theory to describe economic outcomes. 1) It seems to me that it is only utility, rather than its expectation, that is the concept you are treating as necessary. There are an infinity of ways to reduce a distribution of utility-weighted outcomes to a single summary, albeit not with the same simplicity (and perhaps value) as the expectation. 2) All of the phenomena you list could be described by some mechanism other than the agents involved computing expected utilities - whether or not this is a useful or effective description is beside the point, it is possible. (Expected) Utility is not required to describe these phenomena. 3) The basic EE claim is that the ergodic hypothesis, roughly that the temporal and ensemble distributions are the same, is false in the context of these economic systems. This has nothing to do with whether or not you can associate utility values with states, nor whether it is possible to compute expected utilities, but instead is a claim about how, and from where, those utilities should be measured, in particular when considering problems like optimising long-term returns.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
kgwgk 6y ago
1) If the expectation is there it's because the expected value of the utilities for a probability distribution over outcomes allows for an ordering of the available choices which is consistent with the preferences over outcomes. Is that true for any other among that infinity of ways of producing a summary? 3) Ok. Some people seem to think that EE disproves EUT somehow, though. That's the context of the comment your reply to.
- mrow84 6y ago
  The comment I replied to was discussing the necessity of the concept of expected utility for the success of any economic theory. My points were with reference to that - I am only claiming that it is not a requirement for a reasonable economic theory, for the reason I stated. There are other syntheses that might better describe actual economic behaviour. More generally, there are two aspects of the value of EUT being discussed: 1) Does expected utility theory describe observed economic behaviour. There is evidence that it does not, and my previous points concern that fact. 2) Can expected utility theory be used to design a system that will produce optimal outcomes. EE confronts this question, and claims that, in the usual formulation of EUT, it cannot (because the ergodic hypothesis does not apply). As others have mentioned, in practice some people do account for non-ergodic behaviour. Others, however, do not, and being explicit about the limitations of any given model rarely hurts anything except people's egos.
  - kgwgk 6y ago
    I think he pointed to the need of having something similar to expected utility maximization in the context of a theory of rational decision making. I guess it's true that one can also have economic theories which are not compatible with rational decision making as understood in EUT so they could be completely different. > claims that, in the usual formulation of EUT, it cannot EE claims that, but it's a baseless claim. The growth optimization arguments used by EE can be perfectly used (and have been used) in the usual formulation of EUT. If the agent has a preference for growth that can be described with a utility function. (I agree that EUT doesn't explain all behaviour. EE even less, being even more restrictive.)
    - mrow84 6y ago
      > EE claims that, but it's a baseless claim. The growth optimization arguments used by EE can be perfectly used (and have been used) in the usual formulation of EUT. The disagreement seems to boil down to what is considered the "usual" formulation of EUT. My understanding of the basic formulation is in accordance with that in the paper, namely that one typically assumes single-period uncertainties either explicitly or in effect (e.g. assume they are IID), and time is treated by discounting - but I admit I am no expert. That it is possible to extend that formulation is, I think, not in doubt, but we should be able to agree that what I have described above does, implicitly, make an ergodic assumption, and thus the EE critique would apply. You may contest my description of what the basic formulation is, and, as I suggested, lack of clarity about that does seem to be driving a lot of the discussion. These discussions are typically made more problematic by the fact that practitioners often use more advanced methods than the basic theory, to overcome such problems whilst remaining within the same broad intellectual frame. It seems to me that the claim of EE is that the basic theory itself should be replaced because it fails to account for many important real-world phenomena, so that even the "what is the basic formulation" question would become moot.
      - kgwgk 6y ago
        __ The basic formulation of EUT __ EUT is a theory of decision making under uncertainty. If an agent preferences are rational (as in they verify a number of properties) his preferences can be described assigning a number to each outcome. If the outcome is uncertain, the utility is the weighted average of the outcomes utilities. For example, for outcomes A, B, C and D there will be four numbers U(A), U(B), U(C), U(D) such that if U(A)>U(B) the agent prefers A to B if the agent is indifferent between C and D Say that A is "in the beach, it's sunny", B is "in the beach, it's raining", C is "at home, it's sunny" and D is "at home, it's raining". With the equations above, if I'm in the beach I prefer that it's sunny. If I'm at home, I'm indifferent to rain. Let's make a couple of additional assumptions U(A)>U(C) and U(B)<U(D). If it's sunny, I prefer to be at the beach. If it's raining, I prefer to be at home. Let's say that my preferences are described by the following values: U(A)=10, U(B)=-20 and U(C)=U(D)=0. If the probability of rain tomorrow is 50% do I prefer to go to the beach or to stay at home? EUT allows me to calculate U(beach)=0.5 U(A)+0.5 U(B)=-5 and U(home)=0 (it doesn't depend on the weather). I prefer to stay at home. What is the probability of rain that makes me I'm indifferent between going to the beach or staying at home? U(beach)=(1-x) U(A)+x U(B)=10-30 x = U(home)=0 => x=1/3 __ Remarks __ The probability doesn't have to be "right" for the theory to work. It only has to be a faithful description of the expectations of the agent. If I believe that the chance of rain is higher than 1 in 3 is rational that I stay at home. Would Ole Peters say that this use of probabilities to make decisions is incorrect because it assumes that I'm interacting with a copy of myself in parallel universe? I suspect so. Would you say that there is a problem with EUT up to this point?

by mrow84 6y ago

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

kgwgk 6y ago

1) If the expectation is there it's because the expected value of the utilities for a probability distribution over outcomes allows for an ordering of the available choices which is consistent with the preferences over outcomes. Is that true for any other among that infinity of ways of producing a summary? 3) Ok. Some people seem to think that EE disproves EUT somehow, though. That's the context of the comment your reply to.

mrow84 6y ago
The comment I replied to was discussing the necessity of the concept of expected utility for the success of any economic theory. My points were with reference to that - I am only claiming that it is not a requirement for a reasonable economic theory, for the reason I stated. There are other syntheses that might better describe actual economic behaviour. More generally, there are two aspects of the value of EUT being discussed: 1) Does expected utility theory describe observed economic behaviour. There is evidence that it does not, and my previous points concern that fact. 2) Can expected utility theory be used to design a system that will produce optimal outcomes. EE confronts this question, and claims that, in the usual formulation of EUT, it cannot (because the ergodic hypothesis does not apply). As others have mentioned, in practice some people do account for non-ergodic behaviour. Others, however, do not, and being explicit about the limitations of any given model rarely hurts anything except people's egos.
- kgwgk 6y ago
  I think he pointed to the need of having something similar to expected utility maximization in the context of a theory of rational decision making. I guess it's true that one can also have economic theories which are not compatible with rational decision making as understood in EUT so they could be completely different. > claims that, in the usual formulation of EUT, it cannot EE claims that, but it's a baseless claim. The growth optimization arguments used by EE can be perfectly used (and have been used) in the usual formulation of EUT. If the agent has a preference for growth that can be described with a utility function. (I agree that EUT doesn't explain all behaviour. EE even less, being even more restrictive.)
  - mrow84 6y ago
    > EE claims that, but it's a baseless claim. The growth optimization arguments used by EE can be perfectly used (and have been used) in the usual formulation of EUT. The disagreement seems to boil down to what is considered the "usual" formulation of EUT. My understanding of the basic formulation is in accordance with that in the paper, namely that one typically assumes single-period uncertainties either explicitly or in effect (e.g. assume they are IID), and time is treated by discounting - but I admit I am no expert. That it is possible to extend that formulation is, I think, not in doubt, but we should be able to agree that what I have described above does, implicitly, make an ergodic assumption, and thus the EE critique would apply. You may contest my description of what the basic formulation is, and, as I suggested, lack of clarity about that does seem to be driving a lot of the discussion. These discussions are typically made more problematic by the fact that practitioners often use more advanced methods than the basic theory, to overcome such problems whilst remaining within the same broad intellectual frame. It seems to me that the claim of EE is that the basic theory itself should be replaced because it fails to account for many important real-world phenomena, so that even the "what is the basic formulation" question would become moot.
    - kgwgk 6y ago
      __ The basic formulation of EUT __ EUT is a theory of decision making under uncertainty. If an agent preferences are rational (as in they verify a number of properties) his preferences can be described assigning a number to each outcome. If the outcome is uncertain, the utility is the weighted average of the outcomes utilities. For example, for outcomes A, B, C and D there will be four numbers U(A), U(B), U(C), U(D) such that if U(A)>U(B) the agent prefers A to B if the agent is indifferent between C and D Say that A is "in the beach, it's sunny", B is "in the beach, it's raining", C is "at home, it's sunny" and D is "at home, it's raining". With the equations above, if I'm in the beach I prefer that it's sunny. If I'm at home, I'm indifferent to rain. Let's make a couple of additional assumptions U(A)>U(C) and U(B)<U(D). If it's sunny, I prefer to be at the beach. If it's raining, I prefer to be at home. Let's say that my preferences are described by the following values: U(A)=10, U(B)=-20 and U(C)=U(D)=0. If the probability of rain tomorrow is 50% do I prefer to go to the beach or to stay at home? EUT allows me to calculate U(beach)=0.5 U(A)+0.5 U(B)=-5 and U(home)=0 (it doesn't depend on the weather). I prefer to stay at home. What is the probability of rain that makes me I'm indifferent between going to the beach or staying at home? U(beach)=(1-x) U(A)+x U(B)=10-30 x = U(home)=0 => x=1/3 __ Remarks __ The probability doesn't have to be "right" for the theory to work. It only has to be a faithful description of the expectations of the agent. If I believe that the chance of rain is higher than 1 in 3 is rational that I stay at home. Would Ole Peters say that this use of probabilities to make decisions is incorrect because it assumes that I'm interacting with a copy of myself in parallel universe? I suspect so. Would you say that there is a problem with EUT up to this point?