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No, it's the 10% that kills people. They knew the O-rings were failing because they had analyzed previously discarded rockets. So the engineers said, "We got
by gwd 6y ago
No, it's the 10% that kills people. They knew the O-rings were failing because they had analyzed previously discarded rockets. So the engineers said, "We got lucky this time; eventually this is going to kill people." But after launching 4-5 times and having O-ring failures with no problems, management (and probably everyone) started thinking it wasn't really as dangerous as it was.
- bumby 6y agoThe percentage loses meaning without an expected number of opportunities to calculate the expected value. 10% risk x 1 flight might be deemed acceptable. 10% risk x 100 flights means you should plan on losing 10 shuttles. Neither statement about risk probability is wrong (0.001% vs 10%), but both are incomplete. The actual shuttle risk was calculated between 1/78 to 1/254, if I remember correctly