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PRC-ROC is unfinished civil war with a literal countdown timer (2049). Reality is reunification with Taiwan is the ultimate political get-out-jail-free card for
by dirtyid 6y ago
PRC-ROC is unfinished civil war with a literal countdown timer (2049). Reality is reunification with Taiwan is the ultimate political get-out-jail-free card for any Chinese leadership. It doesn't matter if PRC is democratic or authoritarian, taking Taiwan will supersede and overshadow any large domestic issue that could undermine legitimacy. And PRC will face many in the coming years. If she successfully negotiates them, then missing the 2049 deadline itself will be overwhelming issue determining legitimacy. PRC moving on Taiwan is inevitable, even the mildest forceful reunion option (quarantine) could lead to total-war because that's just how escalation spirals.
- Rule35 6y agoThis is the USA's Poland.
- wbsun 6y agoWhy 2049 is a deadline? Mind elaborating? I don't think there is any agreement on when a reunion must happen.
- dirtyid 6y agoCentennial anniversary of founding of PRC. 2049 has been been implied as the latest deadline in enough official political communications over decades that reunification by then is a matter of legitimacy, especially on subjects like sovereignty that CCP is firm on.
- _cs2017_ 6y agoThis type of "deadline" to invade Taiwan has been "discovered" repeatedly. For example, look at this article from 2017/10/05 in https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3268316 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3268316: "According to a book published on Tuesday titled "The Chinese Invasion Threat" by Project 2049 think tank fellow Ian Easton, Beijing has finalized a secret plan to invade Taiwan by 2020, according to classified documents from the Chinese military obtained by the author, reported the Washington Free Beacon." Much as I love Taiwan, let's not pretend this is anything other than propaganda. Only goes to show that bullshit can be produced by pro-Taiwan analysts just as well as by pro-Beijing analysts.