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This makes perfect sense given the market conditions. The real question is how quickly will the two drivers is this be resolved, namely: - when will the evictio
by ryan_j_naughton 6y ago
This makes perfect sense given the market conditions. The real question is how quickly will the two drivers is this be resolved, namely:
- when will the eviction moratorium expire?
- when will rental demand in urban centers begin to rise again.
My forecast is that the eviction moratorium will be more predictable than the demand returning. Once vaccination rates get high enough in late spring / early summer, I don't think the eviction moratorium would hold up in court as the public health necessity will have gone away.
In contrast, the return of workers to in person work is TBD. Will finance jobs return to face time culture -- absolutely. I even know some hedge fund workers who are going into the office a few days a week now (in full PPE). But I'm less certain about marketing jobs, software jobs, etc. And throwing the supply / demand equilibrium out of wack by a significant permanent shift to remote work in some industries could be sufficient to cause rent to stay depressed in urban centers.
On the other hand, people are so starved for human interaction and the most lively place for that is a bustling city. Thus, I hope people pour back into cities when the pandemic is waning as an exuberante expression of a desire to convene with our fellow humans.
- cylinder 6y agoWe are back in offices in Sydney for a while now. I think Singapore too. Most flexibly and tech the slowest to return. Trust me things get back to normal quickly, it's just about momentum