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Russia and China compete. What the OP forgets is that there are plenty of countries such Iran that traditionally used to be US aligned but that have been left w

Russia and China compete. What the OP forgets is that there are plenty of countries such Iran that traditionally used to be US aligned but that have been left with no choice to take whathever deal China has to offer. The population isn't particularly happy about it either, but they don't really feel like they have a choice. Have you not noticed that there is a 1Trillion development contract with Iran and that there isn't a single Muslim country that has a beef with China's Uighur policy? Also Xinjiang is an oil and gas and generally natural resource rich area. Another reason why China won't give it up. Same with Tibet actually. China has actually been filling up with Oil by bartering without actually processing the customs required. So technically the oil never transferred ownership to China and therefore its not in breach of sanctions but for all practical definitions the Oil is now in Chinese hands as reserves. There's also that tiny detail that when China started their nuclear weapons program, Taiwan also had one and that the USA used their global influence and the CIA to shut it down. The reason the power balance is in shambles is that the US focused very strongly on keeping its allies weak and now its coming back to bite everyone. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39252502 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39252502 EDIT: Analysis: Iran slips record volume of oil into China, reaches out to Asian clients for trade resumption https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-iran-asia-analysis-idUSKBN2B00OL https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-iran-asia-analysis-id...

dogma1138 6y ago
The US shutting down the Taiwanese nuclear program wasn’t them keeping their allies weak, it was them saving them from an invasion and us from a nuclear war. Nuclear deterrence won’t work at that scale it’s also why Israel is worried about an Iranian bomb. Deterrence works when both sides are at least somewhat equal in size and population, China can take 100’s of nukes and still survive in some form or another you ain’t going to kill 1.5 billion people, Taiwan on the other hand is an island that can be taken out in a single strike.
- leereeves 6y ago
  That seems quite insane: "100 million Chinese people might die if we invade Taiwan, but those are acceptable losses." I suspect the Chinese leadership aren't that crazy, and if Taiwan had nukes, China would not invade.
  - dogma1138 6y ago
    The point is that people assume that nuclear deterrence can be achieved by snapping fingers. China would invade well before Taiwan gets to the point of second strike capability and even a proper first strike. Taiwan can be essentially evaporated in a first strike, there will be little to no advanced warning and unless they station their nukes off the island they will never be able to build a sufficient deterrence.
- nine_k 6y ago
  It only takes a dozen good megaton nukes to destroy, say, 80% of Chinese industrial potential, which is concentrated in a few large cities. A lot of population is also concentrated in a few major cities, especially the most educated and qualified population. (Same applies to US, Russia, and many other countries.) That is, yes, Chinese nation won't be obliterated; most people would survive. But the resulting chaos would be nothing like the country before that. It would be up for grabs for the strongest local groups, and whatever international / foreign forces which would inevitably come with humanitarian aid. Most importantly, the powers that be can't hope to retain the control of the country, to say nothing of their own quality of life (and maybe the life itself). This is why nuclear deterrence works.
  - dogma1138 6y ago
    So now we are jumping to megaton nukes? You do realize that the current Minutemen warheads in the US arsenal are ~300kt each right? Most nations don’t have multi megaton nukes standing at the ready, and Taiwan could never get to that point in the first place. Getting to one nuke sure maybe, getting to dozens warheads you claim are needed and the 100’s in reality that would be needed, a robust delivery system and a first and second strike capability... are you kidding me? Nuclear deterrence works well with near peers, it doesn’t work when one side can’t take a single hit and the other can.
throwaway4good 6y ago
The US play their game. It may describe Taiwan as an allied but in reality they are just a piece on the chess board of varying importance. In the 80es mainland China was a key pawn to be played against the Soviets. Today containment of China is the big goal. And Taiwan plays an important role in preventing Chinese access to the pacific, and also in the US China tech war. But ultimately it may be sacrificed (again).
- threatofrain 6y ago
  This time Taiwan is a vulnerability for US that the US would rather not have, but it's still a vulnerability. If China suddenly takes Taiwan, the US may be forced into war or see massive infrastructure and economic disruption.
  - nine_k 6y ago
    I suppose a major economic disruption is inevitable in any hot war scenario, at the very least because TSMC is going to be destroyed in this case, by the Taiwanese themselves, or their allies. To say nothing of not buying the inexpensive goods made in China anymore.

dogma1138 6y ago

The US shutting down the Taiwanese nuclear program wasn’t them keeping their allies weak, it was them saving them from an invasion and us from a nuclear war. Nuclear deterrence won’t work at that scale it’s also why Israel is worried about an Iranian bomb. Deterrence works when both sides are at least somewhat equal in size and population, China can take 100’s of nukes and still survive in some form or another you ain’t going to kill 1.5 billion people, Taiwan on the other hand is an island that can be taken out in a single strike.

leereeves 6y ago
That seems quite insane: "100 million Chinese people might die if we invade Taiwan, but those are acceptable losses." I suspect the Chinese leadership aren't that crazy, and if Taiwan had nukes, China would not invade.
- dogma1138 6y ago
  The point is that people assume that nuclear deterrence can be achieved by snapping fingers. China would invade well before Taiwan gets to the point of second strike capability and even a proper first strike. Taiwan can be essentially evaporated in a first strike, there will be little to no advanced warning and unless they station their nukes off the island they will never be able to build a sufficient deterrence.
nine_k 6y ago
It only takes a dozen good megaton nukes to destroy, say, 80% of Chinese industrial potential, which is concentrated in a few large cities. A lot of population is also concentrated in a few major cities, especially the most educated and qualified population. (Same applies to US, Russia, and many other countries.) That is, yes, Chinese nation won't be obliterated; most people would survive. But the resulting chaos would be nothing like the country before that. It would be up for grabs for the strongest local groups, and whatever international / foreign forces which would inevitably come with humanitarian aid. Most importantly, the powers that be can't hope to retain the control of the country, to say nothing of their own quality of life (and maybe the life itself). This is why nuclear deterrence works.
- dogma1138 6y ago
  So now we are jumping to megaton nukes? You do realize that the current Minutemen warheads in the US arsenal are ~300kt each right? Most nations don’t have multi megaton nukes standing at the ready, and Taiwan could never get to that point in the first place. Getting to one nuke sure maybe, getting to dozens warheads you claim are needed and the 100’s in reality that would be needed, a robust delivery system and a first and second strike capability... are you kidding me? Nuclear deterrence works well with near peers, it doesn’t work when one side can’t take a single hit and the other can.

throwaway4good 6y ago

The US play their game. It may describe Taiwan as an allied but in reality they are just a piece on the chess board of varying importance. In the 80es mainland China was a key pawn to be played against the Soviets. Today containment of China is the big goal. And Taiwan plays an important role in preventing Chinese access to the pacific, and also in the US China tech war. But ultimately it may be sacrificed (again).

threatofrain 6y ago
This time Taiwan is a vulnerability for US that the US would rather not have, but it's still a vulnerability. If China suddenly takes Taiwan, the US may be forced into war or see massive infrastructure and economic disruption.
- nine_k 6y ago
  I suppose a major economic disruption is inevitable in any hot war scenario, at the very least because TSMC is going to be destroyed in this case, by the Taiwanese themselves, or their allies. To say nothing of not buying the inexpensive goods made in China anymore.