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> It's a bit hard to imagine the domestic opinion in China supporting a hot war with Taiwan. Have you talked to any Chinese people who are not from Shanghai/Be

> It's a bit hard to imagine the domestic opinion in China supporting a hot war with Taiwan. Have you talked to any Chinese people who are not from Shanghai/Beijing and are not educated in an American university?

rtpg 6y ago
Have you? Most people aren't like "yeah let's go slaughter a bunch of people" in general. It's basically the null hypothesis! And the "common person" understands who will be on the frontlines in any war, and who will be completely out of danger.
- fermienrico 6y ago
  I’ve spent months in China and often rural areas. What you’re saying is definitely not true, I’m not sure how to convince you though. I don’t remember specific stories. Nationalism is helluva drug. Just look at the HK situation.
  - Apocryphon 6y ago
    If you offer anecdata you need to actually offer anecdotes because they at least provide additional color and texture to a discussion. Did rural Chinese evince willingness to go to war with Taiwan? Did they say they would be fine with civilian casualties of fellow Han Chinese and others speaking the same languages as them, with the same culture as them? Did they say anything similar about Hong Kong? For all of the depredations happening in the latter, the bodycount is quite low, which would not be the case in a war with Taiwan.
    - fermienrico 6y ago
      I recall indirect discussions with the locals. Basically job related "Would you ever move to Taiwan or Hong Kong?" and even "Would you move to United States?". This is to fresh graduates (~1-2 years into the job). The answer I got was resounding no, with further explanations involving the progress of China and how amazing the government is at getting rid of corruption and removing obstacles for private enterprises. You could sense a tremendous amount of optimism and nationalism lurking behind their opinions. I could not open any discussion criticizing CCP, that wouldn't have gone well. Also discussed military strength, fighter pilots (oh they really wanted to be one of those guys) and some discussion around religion or lack thereof. FWIW, these were outskirts of industrial towns in China. In Sichuan region mostly which is pretty different than Beijing , Shanghai and Shenzhen.
  - rtpg 6y ago
    (I am not an expert on any of this) HK is a police action, a difference in degrees with what countries in Europe and the US do from a layperson's perspective. Like "dealing with rioting people who are trying to subvert the system". Now one could say "_in reality_ it's the same cuz of all the agreements with HK etc." And I'm inclined to agree. But the optics of police arresting rioters vs.... what? dropping bombs on military forces? Images of boat inspections + being turned away? Even the US, it could barely stomach the idea of a ground invasion of Syria, despite _all_ the sort of things that would make it easy to sell to people (despite the absolute atrocity that it would be). China has much less experience selling wars to people, and all the "disadvantages" that come with pop culture covering war, and on top of that it's not even the "heathens" halfway around the world!
    - kenneth 6y ago
      A key difference is that Taiwan independence is a LOT more important to the US' strategic interests than who runs Syria. Taiwan independence matters to the USA in that it helps contain China. Syria, despite Russia's meddling, has no such importance to the US.
  - Koiwai 6y ago
    China rural area is kinda like red states in the US.
- nsonha 6y ago
  Americans didn't get headlines that read like that when the US send troops to Vietnam, Afganistan etc (maybe they did and the US started those wars anyway). And Chinese press is much more censored.
  - Apocryphon 6y ago
    Wasn't the Vietnam War broadcast live on television?
    - nsonha 6y ago
      Has it not happened anyway?
      - Apocryphon 6y ago
        Sure. Though one could argue that a Sino-Taiwanese war would be at least different because both sides involved would be largely co-ethnics of the same culture, and a fraternal war is more complex than imperial wars. That said, the most civil wars end up pretty bloody anyway.
        nsonha 6y ago
        > both sides involved would be largely co-ethnics of the same culture That's the Vietnam War, it's pretty similar, just instead of the North Vietnam alliance (with USSR and PRC), now it's just PRC
        petre 6y ago
        Different than what, the Korean war? Vietnam? The American secession war? Just brainwash the people with propaganda and they'll support it.
        Apocryphon 6y ago
        Those were all existential civil wars, though. Those wars threatened core territory and were very much in the face of the people involved. Those wars determined the fates of those nations far more than securing one wayward province. And both the ACW and the Vietnam War had its share of war protesters and resisters who were morally opposed or didn't see a reason to get involved. An aggressive war on Taiwan would couple the conflicted feelings of a fraternal struggle with the civilian comfort of America's Cold War and War on Terror imperial adventures. Would middle class Chinese in the big coastal cities be completely fine with seeing or at least hearing about people pretty much just like them getting bombed across the Strait? Or would they view it as an unnecessary, gratuitous, extravagant, waste of life and treasure?

rtpg 6y ago

Have you? Most people aren't like "yeah let's go slaughter a bunch of people" in general. It's basically the null hypothesis! And the "common person" understands who will be on the frontlines in any war, and who will be completely out of danger.

fermienrico 6y ago
I’ve spent months in China and often rural areas. What you’re saying is definitely not true, I’m not sure how to convince you though. I don’t remember specific stories. Nationalism is helluva drug. Just look at the HK situation.
- Apocryphon 6y ago
  If you offer anecdata you need to actually offer anecdotes because they at least provide additional color and texture to a discussion. Did rural Chinese evince willingness to go to war with Taiwan? Did they say they would be fine with civilian casualties of fellow Han Chinese and others speaking the same languages as them, with the same culture as them? Did they say anything similar about Hong Kong? For all of the depredations happening in the latter, the bodycount is quite low, which would not be the case in a war with Taiwan.
  - fermienrico 6y ago
    I recall indirect discussions with the locals. Basically job related "Would you ever move to Taiwan or Hong Kong?" and even "Would you move to United States?". This is to fresh graduates (~1-2 years into the job). The answer I got was resounding no, with further explanations involving the progress of China and how amazing the government is at getting rid of corruption and removing obstacles for private enterprises. You could sense a tremendous amount of optimism and nationalism lurking behind their opinions. I could not open any discussion criticizing CCP, that wouldn't have gone well. Also discussed military strength, fighter pilots (oh they really wanted to be one of those guys) and some discussion around religion or lack thereof. FWIW, these were outskirts of industrial towns in China. In Sichuan region mostly which is pretty different than Beijing , Shanghai and Shenzhen.
- rtpg 6y ago
  (I am not an expert on any of this) HK is a police action, a difference in degrees with what countries in Europe and the US do from a layperson's perspective. Like "dealing with rioting people who are trying to subvert the system". Now one could say "_in reality_ it's the same cuz of all the agreements with HK etc." And I'm inclined to agree. But the optics of police arresting rioters vs.... what? dropping bombs on military forces? Images of boat inspections + being turned away? Even the US, it could barely stomach the idea of a ground invasion of Syria, despite _all_ the sort of things that would make it easy to sell to people (despite the absolute atrocity that it would be). China has much less experience selling wars to people, and all the "disadvantages" that come with pop culture covering war, and on top of that it's not even the "heathens" halfway around the world!
  - kenneth 6y ago
    A key difference is that Taiwan independence is a LOT more important to the US' strategic interests than who runs Syria. Taiwan independence matters to the USA in that it helps contain China. Syria, despite Russia's meddling, has no such importance to the US.
- Koiwai 6y ago
  China rural area is kinda like red states in the US.
nsonha 6y ago
Americans didn't get headlines that read like that when the US send troops to Vietnam, Afganistan etc (maybe they did and the US started those wars anyway). And Chinese press is much more censored.
- Apocryphon 6y ago
  Wasn't the Vietnam War broadcast live on television?
  - nsonha 6y ago
    Has it not happened anyway?
    - Apocryphon 6y ago
      Sure. Though one could argue that a Sino-Taiwanese war would be at least different because both sides involved would be largely co-ethnics of the same culture, and a fraternal war is more complex than imperial wars. That said, the most civil wars end up pretty bloody anyway.
      - nsonha 6y ago
        > both sides involved would be largely co-ethnics of the same culture That's the Vietnam War, it's pretty similar, just instead of the North Vietnam alliance (with USSR and PRC), now it's just PRC
      - petre 6y ago
        Different than what, the Korean war? Vietnam? The American secession war? Just brainwash the people with propaganda and they'll support it.
        Apocryphon 6y ago
        Those were all existential civil wars, though. Those wars threatened core territory and were very much in the face of the people involved. Those wars determined the fates of those nations far more than securing one wayward province. And both the ACW and the Vietnam War had its share of war protesters and resisters who were morally opposed or didn't see a reason to get involved. An aggressive war on Taiwan would couple the conflicted feelings of a fraternal struggle with the civilian comfort of America's Cold War and War on Terror imperial adventures. Would middle class Chinese in the big coastal cities be completely fine with seeing or at least hearing about people pretty much just like them getting bombed across the Strait? Or would they view it as an unnecessary, gratuitous, extravagant, waste of life and treasure?