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This analysis aligns with some of my thinking on the subject, and it's the first time I've read quarantine seriously discussed let alone presented to congress.
by dirtyid 6y ago
This analysis aligns with some of my thinking on the subject, and it's the first time I've read quarantine seriously discussed let alone presented to congress. I've mused about quarantine policy before since it's a historic parallel of ROC closure policy (关闭政策) where ROC navy declared "closure" of ALL Chinese ports and attempted to control PRC shipping between 1949 and 1979. The policy was largely ineffective, suspended after 30 years and not abolished until early 90s. Along with ROC based U2 Black Cat squadron that conducted surveillance over mainland from 60s-70s, there is historic precedence for PRC to rationalize reciprocating similar strategies under a quarantine framework. I would not be surprised salami slicing will eventually encroach past median line as force balance shifts more towards PRC favour, PLAF will aim conduct unfettered flight over Taiwanese proper, PAP coast guard start interdicting shipping into Taiwan, which will setup pieces for escalation into blockade when timing dictates. History rhymes. Potentially prefaced via staged Tonkin style provocation that attributes Taiwan as aggressor, providing everyone opportunity to sit out. Really the fixation with DDAY style invasion needs to die, modernized PLA forces of 2035 has different capabilities as 2000, and greyscale warfare is something China has consistently utilized since reforms.
- hollerith 6y agoHas China ever interdicted a ship going to or from Taiwan? 3 minutes with a search engine didn't yield an example.
- dirtyid 6y agoPRC hasn't blockaded Taiwan due to lack of capability until even 2010s. Taiwan military was credible threat against mainland due US weapons sales in 90s and PLA being broken legacy forces. Emphasis was on peaceful reunion as a matter of impotence and policy until "peaceful" was dropped last year. PLA has modernized sufficiently and developed enough industrial capacity that Taiwan can't deter PRC conventionally could going forward, so I expect increasing pressure.