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It's a bit hard to imagine the domestic opinion in China supporting a hot war with Taiwan. Unless the Taiwanese leadership decides to commit suicide by a cop an
by _cs2017_ 6y ago
It's a bit hard to imagine the domestic opinion in China supporting a hot war with Taiwan. Unless the Taiwanese leadership decides to commit suicide by a cop and declares full independence, I suspect the Chinese public would be very uncomfortable with civilian deaths in Taiwan.
Nationalistic fervor is strong, but the mainland Chinese consider the Taiwanese to be Chinese as well. So bombing Taiwanese targets would feel not very different from bombing Hunan or Sichuan province.
A blockade, on the other hand, would be far more acceptable domestically. And I fear that means a greater likelihood of the US involvement: the US public (and therefore the administration) may not have the stomach to defend Taiwan from an invasion, but they might feel they cannot stand by when American cargo ships are prevented from moving freely in the international waters.
On a side note, it's hard to believe that in the 21 century, when people are on the verge of manned flights to Mars, we still have a truckload of terrorial disputes all over the world (Taiwan and the rest of the mess in the South China Sea, the Northern Territories of Japan, Senkaku islands, the Chinese / Indian border, the Middle East, Crimea, etc.).
- r00fus 6y agoWhy is it hard to believe? That’s human nature. We fight over territory just like most other mammals. That we could rise above our very programming is exceptional (like the Mars lander), not the norm.
- geoalchimista 6y ago> It's a bit hard to imagine the domestic opinion in China supporting a hot war with Taiwan. Have you talked to any Chinese people who are not from Shanghai/Beijing and are not educated in an American university?
- rtpg 6y agoHave you? Most people aren't like "yeah let's go slaughter a bunch of people" in general. It's basically the null hypothesis! And the "common person" understands who will be on the frontlines in any war, and who will be completely out of danger.
- fermienrico 6y agoI’ve spent months in China and often rural areas. What you’re saying is definitely not true, I’m not sure how to convince you though. I don’t remember specific stories. Nationalism is helluva drug. Just look at the HK situation.
- Apocryphon 6y agoIf you offer anecdata you need to actually offer anecdotes because they at least provide additional color and texture to a discussion. Did rural Chinese evince willingness to go to war with Taiwan? Did they say they would be fine with civilian casualties of fellow Han Chinese and others speaking the same languages as them, with the same culture as them? Did they say anything similar about Hong Kong? For all of the depredations happening in the latter, the bodycount is quite low, which would not be the case in a war with Taiwan.
- fermienrico 6y agoI recall indirect discussions with the locals. Basically job related "Would you ever move to Taiwan or Hong Kong?" and even "Would you move to United States?". This is to fresh graduates (~1-2 years into the job). The answer I got was resounding no, with further explanations involving the progress of China and how amazing the government is at getting rid of corruption and removing obstacles for private enterprises. You could sense a tremendous amount of optimism and nationalism lurking behind their opinions. I could not open any discussion criticizing CCP, that wouldn't have gone well. Also discussed military strength, fighter pilots (oh they really wanted to be one of those guys) and some discussion around religion or lack thereof. FWIW, these were outskirts of industrial towns in China. In Sichuan region mostly which is pretty different than Beijing , Shanghai and Shenzhen.
- rtpg 6y ago(I am not an expert on any of this) HK is a police action, a difference in degrees with what countries in Europe and the US do from a layperson's perspective. Like "dealing with rioting people who are trying to subvert the system". Now one could say "_in reality_ it's the same cuz of all the agreements with HK etc." And I'm inclined to agree. But the optics of police arresting rioters vs.... what? dropping bombs on military forces? Images of boat inspections + being turned away? Even the US, it could barely stomach the idea of a ground invasion of Syria, despite _all_ the sort of things that would make it easy to sell to people (despite the absolute atrocity that it would be). China has much less experience selling wars to people, and all the "disadvantages" that come with pop culture covering war, and on top of that it's not even the "heathens" halfway around the world!
- SirHound 6y agoYou think Mars will be any different once a second country lands people there? It’s going to be a nightmare.
- BLKNSLVR 6y agoHaving read Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars Trilogy and watched the Mars docudrama on Netflix, I'm afraid you're probably right. Second country may be equivalent to second 'corporation'. I'm not sure what the ISS model is, but at least that has been working well for a while.
- dogma1138 6y agoThe current season of For All Mankind deals with this too, gonna get interesting.
- Apocryphon 6y agoAnd of course The Expanse has been showing us that even if Earth was to do away with nations, the space colonies will just create their own.
- SirHound 6y agoI think it'll be facisnating to see how long America can hold the pretence of its Mars colony being "American" before history repeats itself.
- nsonha 6y agoit's abit hard to imagine the domestic opinion in America... also is it hard to imagine a government doing something against its people's will?
- dirtyid 6y agoPRC-ROC is unfinished civil war with a literal countdown timer (2049). Reality is reunification with Taiwan is the ultimate political get-out-jail-free card for any Chinese leadership. It doesn't matter if PRC is democratic or authoritarian, taking Taiwan will supersede and overshadow any large domestic issue that could undermine legitimacy. And PRC will face many in the coming years. If she successfully negotiates them, then missing the 2049 deadline itself will be overwhelming issue determining legitimacy. PRC moving on Taiwan is inevitable, even the mildest forceful reunion option (quarantine) could lead to total-war because that's just how escalation spirals.
- Rule35 6y agoThis is the USA's Poland.
- wbsun 6y agoWhy 2049 is a deadline? Mind elaborating? I don't think there is any agreement on when a reunion must happen.
- dirtyid 6y agoCentennial anniversary of founding of PRC. 2049 has been been implied as the latest deadline in enough official political communications over decades that reunification by then is a matter of legitimacy, especially on subjects like sovereignty that CCP is firm on.
- _cs2017_ 6y agoThis type of "deadline" to invade Taiwan has been "discovered" repeatedly. For example, look at this article from 2017/10/05 in https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3268316 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3268316: "According to a book published on Tuesday titled "The Chinese Invasion Threat" by Project 2049 think tank fellow Ian Easton, Beijing has finalized a secret plan to invade Taiwan by 2020, according to classified documents from the Chinese military obtained by the author, reported the Washington Free Beacon." Much as I love Taiwan, let's not pretend this is anything other than propaganda. Only goes to show that bullshit can be produced by pro-Taiwan analysts just as well as by pro-Beijing analysts.
- Rule35 6y ago> Unless the Taiwanese leadership decides to commit suicide by a cop and declares full independence Suicide by cop is pretending to draw a weapon. Your example is closer to, in America, refusing to be breathalyzed and demanding to be tested at the station.