5 ms·

I keep reading this but I don't understand. In a naval embargo scenario, why wouldn't China simply get its oil from Russia? Delivered over land.

walrus01 6y ago
It's my understanding that nowhere near enough pipeline capacity exists, like, not even 10% of China's weekly/monthly oil consumption.
- throwaway4good 6y ago
  They would just get the oil by trucks. Sure it is more expensive than getting it by oil tankers. But possible. And it would be cheaper than the US cost of doing a naval embargo.
  - msh 6y ago
    There is nowhere near enought trucks in existance for that.
    - throwaway4good 6y ago
      Is that really correct?
      - msh 6y ago
        China imports according to google 7,620,760 barrels of oil a day. A similar lookup gives that the largest tanker trucks can carry 176 barrels of oil. So that would, if all capacity was by truck (I know it will not be) over 43000 truck loads pr day over very bad road conditions.
        Rule35 6y ago
        Russian oil is quite a ways West, around Kazakhstan, and China's population density is to the East. The trip would be around 5000km, and take a week on good roads. Perhaps double or triple this depending on the season, and maybe with a "Russia" multiplier. So multiply that 43,000 by 14 to 42, or more, and you're within a factor of ten of all (~16M according to Google) commercial trucks in the world, of which only some fraction are tanker trucks.
        throwaway4good 6y ago
        Interesting. But how is all that oil currently distributed within Russia and China?
- kortilla 6y ago
  But wouldn’t china be motivated and have the means to build all of that pipeline very quickly?
  - irrational 6y ago
    Seriously. This is China. No need for environmental impact studies. They built 2 hospitals in a matter of days. They can probably lay down a few tens of thousands of miles of pipe in a week.
    - rjzzleep 6y ago
      They've been building hundreds of thousands of kms of road per year. Although I don't know what the real numbers are. https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1189387.shtml https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1189387.shtml
    - nine_k 6y ago
      Chinese might. Russians? IDK. It won't be their war. And the oil wells of Russia are rather far from China border, in pretty inhospitable Siberia.
rjzzleep 6y ago
Russia and China compete. What the OP forgets is that there are plenty of countries such Iran that traditionally used to be US aligned but that have been left with no choice to take whathever deal China has to offer. The population isn't particularly happy about it either, but they don't really feel like they have a choice. Have you not noticed that there is a 1Trillion development contract with Iran and that there isn't a single Muslim country that has a beef with China's Uighur policy? Also Xinjiang is an oil and gas and generally natural resource rich area. Another reason why China won't give it up. Same with Tibet actually. China has actually been filling up with Oil by bartering without actually processing the customs required. So technically the oil never transferred ownership to China and therefore its not in breach of sanctions but for all practical definitions the Oil is now in Chinese hands as reserves. There's also that tiny detail that when China started their nuclear weapons program, Taiwan also had one and that the USA used their global influence and the CIA to shut it down. The reason the power balance is in shambles is that the US focused very strongly on keeping its allies weak and now its coming back to bite everyone. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39252502 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39252502 EDIT: Analysis: Iran slips record volume of oil into China, reaches out to Asian clients for trade resumption https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-iran-asia-analysis-idUSKBN2B00OL https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-iran-asia-analysis-id...
- dogma1138 6y ago
  The US shutting down the Taiwanese nuclear program wasn’t them keeping their allies weak, it was them saving them from an invasion and us from a nuclear war. Nuclear deterrence won’t work at that scale it’s also why Israel is worried about an Iranian bomb. Deterrence works when both sides are at least somewhat equal in size and population, China can take 100’s of nukes and still survive in some form or another you ain’t going to kill 1.5 billion people, Taiwan on the other hand is an island that can be taken out in a single strike.
  - leereeves 6y ago
    That seems quite insane: "100 million Chinese people might die if we invade Taiwan, but those are acceptable losses." I suspect the Chinese leadership aren't that crazy, and if Taiwan had nukes, China would not invade.

walrus01 6y ago

It's my understanding that nowhere near enough pipeline capacity exists, like, not even 10% of China's weekly/monthly oil consumption.

throwaway4good 6y ago
They would just get the oil by trucks. Sure it is more expensive than getting it by oil tankers. But possible. And it would be cheaper than the US cost of doing a naval embargo.
- msh 6y ago
  There is nowhere near enought trucks in existance for that.
  - throwaway4good 6y ago
    Is that really correct?
    - msh 6y ago
      China imports according to google 7,620,760 barrels of oil a day. A similar lookup gives that the largest tanker trucks can carry 176 barrels of oil. So that would, if all capacity was by truck (I know it will not be) over 43000 truck loads pr day over very bad road conditions.
      - Rule35 6y ago
        Russian oil is quite a ways West, around Kazakhstan, and China's population density is to the East. The trip would be around 5000km, and take a week on good roads. Perhaps double or triple this depending on the season, and maybe with a "Russia" multiplier. So multiply that 43,000 by 14 to 42, or more, and you're within a factor of ten of all (~16M according to Google) commercial trucks in the world, of which only some fraction are tanker trucks.
        throwaway4good 6y ago
        Interesting. But how is all that oil currently distributed within Russia and China?
kortilla 6y ago
But wouldn’t china be motivated and have the means to build all of that pipeline very quickly?
- irrational 6y ago
  Seriously. This is China. No need for environmental impact studies. They built 2 hospitals in a matter of days. They can probably lay down a few tens of thousands of miles of pipe in a week.
  - rjzzleep 6y ago
    They've been building hundreds of thousands of kms of road per year. Although I don't know what the real numbers are. https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1189387.shtml https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1189387.shtml
  - nine_k 6y ago
    Chinese might. Russians? IDK. It won't be their war. And the oil wells of Russia are rather far from China border, in pretty inhospitable Siberia.

rjzzleep 6y ago

Russia and China compete. What the OP forgets is that there are plenty of countries such Iran that traditionally used to be US aligned but that have been left with no choice to take whathever deal China has to offer. The population isn't particularly happy about it either, but they don't really feel like they have a choice. Have you not noticed that there is a 1Trillion development contract with Iran and that there isn't a single Muslim country that has a beef with China's Uighur policy? Also Xinjiang is an oil and gas and generally natural resource rich area. Another reason why China won't give it up. Same with Tibet actually. China has actually been filling up with Oil by bartering without actually processing the customs required. So technically the oil never transferred ownership to China and therefore its not in breach of sanctions but for all practical definitions the Oil is now in Chinese hands as reserves. There's also that tiny detail that when China started their nuclear weapons program, Taiwan also had one and that the USA used their global influence and the CIA to shut it down. The reason the power balance is in shambles is that the US focused very strongly on keeping its allies weak and now its coming back to bite everyone. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39252502 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39252502 EDIT: Analysis: Iran slips record volume of oil into China, reaches out to Asian clients for trade resumption https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-iran-asia-analysis-idUSKBN2B00OL https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-iran-asia-analysis-id...

dogma1138 6y ago
The US shutting down the Taiwanese nuclear program wasn’t them keeping their allies weak, it was them saving them from an invasion and us from a nuclear war. Nuclear deterrence won’t work at that scale it’s also why Israel is worried about an Iranian bomb. Deterrence works when both sides are at least somewhat equal in size and population, China can take 100’s of nukes and still survive in some form or another you ain’t going to kill 1.5 billion people, Taiwan on the other hand is an island that can be taken out in a single strike.
- leereeves 6y ago
  That seems quite insane: "100 million Chinese people might die if we invade Taiwan, but those are acceptable losses." I suspect the Chinese leadership aren't that crazy, and if Taiwan had nukes, China would not invade.