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China cannot itself sustain a blockade of Taiwan if the US intervenes. It will be blockaded itself, as the US can within 48hrs blockade all commercial traffic

China cannot itself sustain a blockade of Taiwan if the US intervenes. It will be blockaded itself, as the US can within 48hrs blockade all commercial traffic in and out of china. China doesn't have much oil by itself, and it needs imports to properly feed its population. It will end up like those scenarios, where the sieging forces, get sieged and cut off itself. Its navy is a near-shore force, and just can't project force outside the China sea. They can completely control the part of China sea near about 200-400km near its shore, but it will be unable to go any further than that. It might end up like a Japan, 1941 scenario. They might be able to score some early surprise wins, but on the long term they are doomed to lose the war. Ps. While china is experiencing a boom like the 50s and 60s in the USA (lots of infrastructure being built), China's demographic is aging, and we might see a scenario that the current boom will just slow down, and itself end up in a situation like Japan in the 90s, or USA itself in the 70s. It will reach a peak in the next 10 years (economically) and start leveling off to more normal rates of growth.

Koiwai 6y ago
And at the end US nukes China, and still the good guy. Joke aside, the real question is: will US wage war on China for Taiwan. I think it's highly unlikely.
- ardit33 6y ago
  I think they will absolutely intervene. The sentiment in the US against china is really negative...
  - Koiwai 6y ago
    Will US "win" if they intervened? likely, was that worth the risk? I don't think so. On the other hand, given current US political status, they might actually want a war despite the risk. "Negative sentiment" is not cause, it's propaganda for the possible declaration of war.
    - adriancr 6y ago
      You are confusing who is attacking who. If China invades Taiwan, US will defend it* You would need to ask China if it's worth the trouble. * that is if China doesn't fail as miserably as it did with Vietnam where it declared victory after retreating
  - fermienrico 6y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Chinese_sentiment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Chinese_sentiment US and Europe align within a few % when it comes to anti-China sentiments. US is 7th after Japan, Australia, Sweden, Denmark, UK and South Korea.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
rococode 6y ago
Is it realistic to expect the US to have the capability to block its northern borders? I can't imagine Russia siding with the US in the event of a serious conflict, and even ignoring Kazakhstan and Mongolia (which the US will likely find hard to influence), China and Russia have many miles of shared borders. Russia's oil production is in the same order of magnitude as Saudi Arabia and the US and to my understanding is artificially limited to play nice with OPEC. I think the more interesting scenario is tech embargoes taking away the "building blocks" (e.g. chips) and stalling their tech production. But China is well aware of their deficiency in this area and they've been pushing hard towards what they call "self-reliance" [1]. As for food, I can't imagine the conflict escalating to such a level of hostility and disregard for human life that the world allows the US to blockade China into starvation. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-10-31/bloomberg-new-economy-self-reliance-is-china-s-endgame https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-10-31/bloomb... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3012888/chinas-push-self-reliance-meets-reality-global-trade-networks https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3012888/ch...
- ardit33 6y ago
  It is only one rail line and some roads... it takes a couple of B2s to destroy the link. The US doesn't have to hit china itself (to avoid any nuclear escalation). It will hit the silk road in the secondary countries where it passes (eg. Kazakhstan). Siberia is huge and the Russian - China link is very inefficient. Also, China is in bad terms with almost every other neighbor it has (territory disputes with almost every one).. and they will be glad to see it humbled a notch or two and will not help.
  - est 6y ago
    > It will hit the silk road in the secondary countries where it passes (eg. Kazakhstan) China would be more than happy to help those countries with better "air defence".
roenxi 6y ago
Predicting that China can control Taiwan if it wants to is a pretty easy one, as predictions go. Predicting that the US can easily dominate China is more in the vein of the ignorance at the start of WWI [0]. The world will not unite against China in the delusional understanding that the US is good and China is bad. China will not roll over and get flattened like an Afghanistan or an Iraq. Nobody knows what will happen, but it will probably be horrific. [0] https://www.uniassignment.com/essay-samples/history/attitudes-to-the-first-world-war-history-essay.php https://www.uniassignment.com/essay-samples/history/attitude...
Ekaros 6y ago
Would USA even blockade China? At this point it really would be mutual destruction. The retail market in USA would suffer, bringing most of the rest likely down with it...
- dnautics 6y ago
  Not really. The us's #1 trading partner is currently mexico, as of 2020. Why do you think all the techies are moving to Texas y aprendiendo español quien es el nuevo mandarín https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/kenroberts/2020/02/05/its-official-mexico-is-no-1-us-trade-partner-for-first-time-despite-overall-us-trade-decline/amp/ https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/kenroberts... The us also is generally less dependent on foreign trade than most other countries. Huge domestic market.

Koiwai 6y ago

And at the end US nukes China, and still the good guy. Joke aside, the real question is: will US wage war on China for Taiwan. I think it's highly unlikely.

ardit33 6y ago
I think they will absolutely intervene. The sentiment in the US against china is really negative...
- Koiwai 6y ago
  Will US "win" if they intervened? likely, was that worth the risk? I don't think so. On the other hand, given current US political status, they might actually want a war despite the risk. "Negative sentiment" is not cause, it's propaganda for the possible declaration of war.
  - adriancr 6y ago
    You are confusing who is attacking who. If China invades Taiwan, US will defend it* You would need to ask China if it's worth the trouble. * that is if China doesn't fail as miserably as it did with Vietnam where it declared victory after retreating
- fermienrico 6y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Chinese_sentiment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Chinese_sentiment US and Europe align within a few % when it comes to anti-China sentiments. US is 7th after Japan, Australia, Sweden, Denmark, UK and South Korea.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]

rococode 6y ago

Is it realistic to expect the US to have the capability to block its northern borders? I can't imagine Russia siding with the US in the event of a serious conflict, and even ignoring Kazakhstan and Mongolia (which the US will likely find hard to influence), China and Russia have many miles of shared borders. Russia's oil production is in the same order of magnitude as Saudi Arabia and the US and to my understanding is artificially limited to play nice with OPEC. I think the more interesting scenario is tech embargoes taking away the "building blocks" (e.g. chips) and stalling their tech production. But China is well aware of their deficiency in this area and they've been pushing hard towards what they call "self-reliance" [1]. As for food, I can't imagine the conflict escalating to such a level of hostility and disregard for human life that the world allows the US to blockade China into starvation. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-10-31/bloomberg-new-economy-self-reliance-is-china-s-endgame https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-10-31/bloomb... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3012888/chinas-push-self-reliance-meets-reality-global-trade-networks https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3012888/ch...

ardit33 6y ago
It is only one rail line and some roads... it takes a couple of B2s to destroy the link. The US doesn't have to hit china itself (to avoid any nuclear escalation). It will hit the silk road in the secondary countries where it passes (eg. Kazakhstan). Siberia is huge and the Russian - China link is very inefficient. Also, China is in bad terms with almost every other neighbor it has (territory disputes with almost every one).. and they will be glad to see it humbled a notch or two and will not help.
- est 6y ago
  > It will hit the silk road in the secondary countries where it passes (eg. Kazakhstan) China would be more than happy to help those countries with better "air defence".

roenxi 6y ago

Predicting that China can control Taiwan if it wants to is a pretty easy one, as predictions go. Predicting that the US can easily dominate China is more in the vein of the ignorance at the start of WWI [0]. The world will not unite against China in the delusional understanding that the US is good and China is bad. China will not roll over and get flattened like an Afghanistan or an Iraq. Nobody knows what will happen, but it will probably be horrific. [0] https://www.uniassignment.com/essay-samples/history/attitudes-to-the-first-world-war-history-essay.php https://www.uniassignment.com/essay-samples/history/attitude...

Ekaros 6y ago

Would USA even blockade China? At this point it really would be mutual destruction. The retail market in USA would suffer, bringing most of the rest likely down with it...

dnautics 6y ago
Not really. The us's #1 trading partner is currently mexico, as of 2020. Why do you think all the techies are moving to Texas y aprendiendo español quien es el nuevo mandarín https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/kenroberts/2020/02/05/its-official-mexico-is-no-1-us-trade-partner-for-first-time-despite-overall-us-trade-decline/amp/ https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/kenroberts... The us also is generally less dependent on foreign trade than most other countries. Huge domestic market.