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China will be able to temporarily convert its commercial industrial factory output into wartime use and just spam drones at Taiwan. All of the infrastructure is

by xenihn 6y ago

China will be able to temporarily convert its commercial industrial factory output into wartime use and just spam drones at Taiwan. All of the infrastructure is already there, a switch just needs to be flipped. The US did the same in WW2, though instead of drones back then, it was planes, tanks, and munitions.

echelon 6y ago
The US has nukes now. The fight wouldn't last long enough to make use of those factories.
- Koiwai 6y ago
  Implying preemptive nuclear strike, nice. China also has nuke you know, there is even a term for it: "mutually assured destruction".
  - echelon 6y ago
    Please don't jump to conclusions. I wasn't implying advanced strike. The assumption was that both parties were already at war. per, > convert its commercial industrial factory output into wartime use and just spam drones at Taiwan. I also assume they'd use tactical nukes or munitions.
    - Koiwai 6y ago
      You failed to understand China also has nuke, if you intend to nuke a Country with nuke, do it preemptively, or don't.
      - adriancr 6y ago
        You're failing to understand game theory here. What good are nukes if you are not willing to use them and let others take what they want. By having a very real threat of nuclear escalation you keep others at bay. That's how the US was kept out of cuba, that's how Russia was kept out of western europe. Here, it's a very real threat of escalation: - if China invades, US escalates conventionally and wipes out what it can. (conventional US missiles are not that far from tactical nukes, US navy will easily wipe out Chinese navy) - Then China can escalate further by attacking US forces via land-to-sea missiles, aircrafts, etc, a few sunk aircraft carriers and you'll see the US out for blood. - tactical nukes will likely be used by any side if it loses too badly. - US could always do some risky air-strikes against Chinese leadership and close the war that way (or nukes start flying) - China can't really reach the US mainland that easily and US has quite a few anti-missile forces off japan and on the mainland. - at this point, it's survive who is best prepared. I'm assuming US will come off a lot better then China.
        Koiwai 6y ago
        For the record, there is no China "invades" Taiwan, it's merely reclaiming it. US does NOT recognize Taiwan as a independent nation. Taiwan doesn't have nukes, and China would not use nuke against them. Once US intervenes, game changes.
        adriancr 6y ago
        > there is no China "invades" Taiwan, it's merely reclaiming it different words, same meaning... In effect, China sending in military is an invasion... They will likely sell it as 'glorious reunification' 1984 style While US does not recognize Taiwan it does guarantee it de facto. Not recognizing it is due to cold war politics where US needed China against Russia, that's no longer the case.
        Koiwai 6y ago
        > that's no longer the case. US still haven't established formal diplomatic relation with Taiwan, like all UNSC countries, your argument is simply invalid.
        adriancr 6y ago
        > US still haven't established formal diplomatic relation with Taiwan, like all UNSC countries, your argument is simply invalid. Here's the result of an invasion by people that have looked into this more: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zs1ahNtj498 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zs1ahNtj498 Here's info on US relationship with taiwan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan%E2%80%93United_States_relations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan%E2%80%93United_States_r... > On July 14, 1982 the Republican Reagan Administration gave specific assurances to Taiwan that the United States did not accept China's claim to sovereignty over the island (Six Assurances),[37][39] > Despite friendly relations with China, United States President George W. Bush was asked on 25 April 2001, "if Taiwan were attacked by China, do we (The U.S.) have an obligation to defend the Taiwanese?" He responded, "Yes, we do...and the Chinese must understand that. The United States would do whatever it took to help Taiwan defend herself."[43] He made it understood that "though we (China and the U.S.) have common interests, the Chinese must understand that there will be some areas where we disagree."[43] Also, you have to be aware that Mao wanted to invade Taiwan but US got in the way then too (ignoring the complete incompetence and inability to launch naval invasion)
  - adriancr 6y ago
    Its not preemptive if China invades taiwan. It's similar to cuba had the US invaded nukes would have been flying. In this case you would see chinese invasion force wiped out and blockade, after which nukes will definitely be flying.
  - Ancapistani 6y ago
    MAD does not apply to China. They have a very limited second-strike capability at this point, especially considering the ranges to the US mainland. They have ~50 ICBMs capable of reaching the US mainland, of which half are in silos. The other half are road-mobile, which means they’re relying on being able to move them around quickly and hide them to provide the ability to retaliate. They have seven SSBNs, one of which is a Xia-class which isn’t capable of launching SLBMs with significant range. The remaining six Jin-class SSBNs are notoriously noisy, which means they are relatively easy to locate and destroy.
- est 6y ago
  > The US has nukes now As if China has not?

by xenihn 6y ago

echelon 6y ago

The US has nukes now. The fight wouldn't last long enough to make use of those factories.

Koiwai 6y ago
Implying preemptive nuclear strike, nice. China also has nuke you know, there is even a term for it: "mutually assured destruction".
- echelon 6y ago
  Please don't jump to conclusions. I wasn't implying advanced strike. The assumption was that both parties were already at war. per, > convert its commercial industrial factory output into wartime use and just spam drones at Taiwan. I also assume they'd use tactical nukes or munitions.
  - Koiwai 6y ago
    You failed to understand China also has nuke, if you intend to nuke a Country with nuke, do it preemptively, or don't.
    - adriancr 6y ago
      You're failing to understand game theory here. What good are nukes if you are not willing to use them and let others take what they want. By having a very real threat of nuclear escalation you keep others at bay. That's how the US was kept out of cuba, that's how Russia was kept out of western europe. Here, it's a very real threat of escalation: - if China invades, US escalates conventionally and wipes out what it can. (conventional US missiles are not that far from tactical nukes, US navy will easily wipe out Chinese navy) - Then China can escalate further by attacking US forces via land-to-sea missiles, aircrafts, etc, a few sunk aircraft carriers and you'll see the US out for blood. - tactical nukes will likely be used by any side if it loses too badly. - US could always do some risky air-strikes against Chinese leadership and close the war that way (or nukes start flying) - China can't really reach the US mainland that easily and US has quite a few anti-missile forces off japan and on the mainland. - at this point, it's survive who is best prepared. I'm assuming US will come off a lot better then China.
      - Koiwai 6y ago
        For the record, there is no China "invades" Taiwan, it's merely reclaiming it. US does NOT recognize Taiwan as a independent nation. Taiwan doesn't have nukes, and China would not use nuke against them. Once US intervenes, game changes.
        adriancr 6y ago
        > there is no China "invades" Taiwan, it's merely reclaiming it different words, same meaning... In effect, China sending in military is an invasion... They will likely sell it as 'glorious reunification' 1984 style While US does not recognize Taiwan it does guarantee it de facto. Not recognizing it is due to cold war politics where US needed China against Russia, that's no longer the case.
        Koiwai 6y ago
        > that's no longer the case. US still haven't established formal diplomatic relation with Taiwan, like all UNSC countries, your argument is simply invalid.
        adriancr 6y ago
        > US still haven't established formal diplomatic relation with Taiwan, like all UNSC countries, your argument is simply invalid. Here's the result of an invasion by people that have looked into this more: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zs1ahNtj498 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zs1ahNtj498 Here's info on US relationship with taiwan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan%E2%80%93United_States_relations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan%E2%80%93United_States_r... > On July 14, 1982 the Republican Reagan Administration gave specific assurances to Taiwan that the United States did not accept China's claim to sovereignty over the island (Six Assurances),[37][39] > Despite friendly relations with China, United States President George W. Bush was asked on 25 April 2001, "if Taiwan were attacked by China, do we (The U.S.) have an obligation to defend the Taiwanese?" He responded, "Yes, we do...and the Chinese must understand that. The United States would do whatever it took to help Taiwan defend herself."[43] He made it understood that "though we (China and the U.S.) have common interests, the Chinese must understand that there will be some areas where we disagree."[43] Also, you have to be aware that Mao wanted to invade Taiwan but US got in the way then too (ignoring the complete incompetence and inability to launch naval invasion)
- adriancr 6y ago
  Its not preemptive if China invades taiwan. It's similar to cuba had the US invaded nukes would have been flying. In this case you would see chinese invasion force wiped out and blockade, after which nukes will definitely be flying.
- Ancapistani 6y ago
  MAD does not apply to China. They have a very limited second-strike capability at this point, especially considering the ranges to the US mainland. They have ~50 ICBMs capable of reaching the US mainland, of which half are in silos. The other half are road-mobile, which means they’re relying on being able to move them around quickly and hide them to provide the ability to retaliate. They have seven SSBNs, one of which is a Xia-class which isn’t capable of launching SLBMs with significant range. The remaining six Jin-class SSBNs are notoriously noisy, which means they are relatively easy to locate and destroy.
est 6y ago
> The US has nukes now As if China has not?