4 ms·

Seems irrational given the probabilities. Do you stop driving non-Tesla cars? That should give you a bigger bump in expected mortality (obviously depending on y

Seems irrational given the probabilities. Do you stop driving non-Tesla cars? That should give you a bigger bump in expected mortality (obviously depending on your relative mileage)

rualca 6y ago
> Seems irrational given the probabilities. Two Boeing 737max out of a total close to 400 crashed in the span of around a year before being grounded. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX_groundings https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX_groundings The FAA predicted that the Boeing 737max would cause about 15 crashes during the next 30 years.
- CydeWeys 6y ago
  The right figure to look at is the number of fatalities per million miles traveled. Those 400 covered an awful lot of distance over that year (but also, not all of them were yet flying at the beginning of the year).
  - rualca 6y ago
    > The right figure to look at is the number of fatalities per million miles traveled. The right figure to look at is how many plane crashes there are with other commercial flight planes of the same class due to design defects covered up like Boeig did, which is zero.
    - CydeWeys 6y ago
      The comment I was addressing was "Do you stop driving non-Tesla cars? That should give you a bigger bump in expected mortality (obviously depending on your relative mileage)". You seem to have mistakenly believe that I'm defending Boeing here. I'm not. The following two things can be simultaneously true: The 737 MAX is less safe than other aircraft, and the 737 MAX is still safer than driving. Look at how many car crashes leading to fatalities there were over those two years and it's a lot more than the mere 2 with the 737 MAX. The point still stands; the only reasonable way to make comparisons here is not by absolute number, but per passenger distance traveled. Any other comparison isn't correctly normalizing the things being compared.
      - rualca 6y ago
        > The comment I was addressing was "Do you stop driving non-Tesla cars? I'm not. That's your personal decision, and one you feel you meet to be vocal about on public forums. Others feel the exact opposite, and flying Boeing is a risk not worth taking due to the company's track record. Think about it for a second: your decision comes down to either fly with company A or company B, who have pretty identical offers, and company B flies planes with known safety problems. Not a hard decision.

Seems irrational given the probabilities. Do you stop driving non-Tesla cars? That should give you a bigger bump in expected mortality (obviously depending on your relative mileage)

rualca 6y ago

> Seems irrational given the probabilities. Two Boeing 737max out of a total close to 400 crashed in the span of around a year before being grounded. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX_groundings https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX_groundings The FAA predicted that the Boeing 737max would cause about 15 crashes during the next 30 years.

CydeWeys 6y ago
The right figure to look at is the number of fatalities per million miles traveled. Those 400 covered an awful lot of distance over that year (but also, not all of them were yet flying at the beginning of the year).
- rualca 6y ago
  > The right figure to look at is the number of fatalities per million miles traveled. The right figure to look at is how many plane crashes there are with other commercial flight planes of the same class due to design defects covered up like Boeig did, which is zero.
  - CydeWeys 6y ago
    The comment I was addressing was "Do you stop driving non-Tesla cars? That should give you a bigger bump in expected mortality (obviously depending on your relative mileage)". You seem to have mistakenly believe that I'm defending Boeing here. I'm not. The following two things can be simultaneously true: The 737 MAX is less safe than other aircraft, and the 737 MAX is still safer than driving. Look at how many car crashes leading to fatalities there were over those two years and it's a lot more than the mere 2 with the 737 MAX. The point still stands; the only reasonable way to make comparisons here is not by absolute number, but per passenger distance traveled. Any other comparison isn't correctly normalizing the things being compared.
    - rualca 6y ago
      > The comment I was addressing was "Do you stop driving non-Tesla cars? I'm not. That's your personal decision, and one you feel you meet to be vocal about on public forums. Others feel the exact opposite, and flying Boeing is a risk not worth taking due to the company's track record. Think about it for a second: your decision comes down to either fly with company A or company B, who have pretty identical offers, and company B flies planes with known safety problems. Not a hard decision.