4 ms·

Demis Hassabis. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0962biiZa4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0962biiZa4, older https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qgd3OK5DZWI https

Demis Hassabis. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0962biiZa4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0962biiZa4, older https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qgd3OK5DZWI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qgd3OK5DZWI (NB ‘likely’ ≠ ‘>50%’, not sure what his percentage would be) I can give more but I did upstream link to a paper on this so it seems pretty pointless.

nl 6y ago
Do you have a timestamp for a specific quote? I can point at "Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality" https://venturebeat.com/2018/12/17/geoffrey-hinton-and-demis-hassabis-agi-is-nowhere-close-to-being-a-reality/ https://venturebeat.com/2018/12/17/geoffrey-hinton-and-demis... and "Martin Ford interviewed 23 of the most prominent men and women who are working in AI today, including DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis, Google AI Chief Jeff Dean, and Stanford AI director Fei-Fei Li. In an informal survey, Ford asked each of them to guess by which year there will be at least a 50 percent chance of AGI being built.... Ray Kurzweil, a futurist and director of engineering at Google, suggested that by 2029, there would be a 50 percent chance of AGI being built, and Rodney Brooks, roboticist and co-founder of iRobot, went for 2200. The rest of the guesses were scattered between these two extremes, with the average estimate being 2099 — 81 years from now." https://www.theverge.com/2018/11/27/18114362/ai-artificial-general-intelligence-when-achieved-martin-ford-book https://www.theverge.com/2018/11/27/18114362/ai-artificial-g...
- Veedrac 6y ago
  > Do you have a timestamp for a specific quote? I don't think there's a single timestamp for this since the exact question was never asked. But the gist is very explicit in his numerous talks (which note includes both the Future of Life Institute and Singularity Summit), and I think https://youtu.be/d-bvsJWmqlc?t=203 https://youtu.be/d-bvsJWmqlc?t=203 sums it up beyond reasonable doubt. > I can point at "Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality" This is a disaster of a headline, since while Hinton does, Hassabis never says that. > The rest of the guesses were scattered between these two extremes, with the average estimate being 2099 — 81 years from now. Which agrees with my point.

nl 6y ago

Do you have a timestamp for a specific quote? I can point at "Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality" https://venturebeat.com/2018/12/17/geoffrey-hinton-and-demis-hassabis-agi-is-nowhere-close-to-being-a-reality/ https://venturebeat.com/2018/12/17/geoffrey-hinton-and-demis... and "Martin Ford interviewed 23 of the most prominent men and women who are working in AI today, including DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis, Google AI Chief Jeff Dean, and Stanford AI director Fei-Fei Li. In an informal survey, Ford asked each of them to guess by which year there will be at least a 50 percent chance of AGI being built.... Ray Kurzweil, a futurist and director of engineering at Google, suggested that by 2029, there would be a 50 percent chance of AGI being built, and Rodney Brooks, roboticist and co-founder of iRobot, went for 2200. The rest of the guesses were scattered between these two extremes, with the average estimate being 2099 — 81 years from now." https://www.theverge.com/2018/11/27/18114362/ai-artificial-general-intelligence-when-achieved-martin-ford-book https://www.theverge.com/2018/11/27/18114362/ai-artificial-g...

Veedrac 6y ago
> Do you have a timestamp for a specific quote? I don't think there's a single timestamp for this since the exact question was never asked. But the gist is very explicit in his numerous talks (which note includes both the Future of Life Institute and Singularity Summit), and I think https://youtu.be/d-bvsJWmqlc?t=203 https://youtu.be/d-bvsJWmqlc?t=203 sums it up beyond reasonable doubt. > I can point at "Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality" This is a disaster of a headline, since while Hinton does, Hassabis never says that. > The rest of the guesses were scattered between these two extremes, with the average estimate being 2099 — 81 years from now. Which agrees with my point.