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I should have said "endogenous." The difference between 2020, 2008, and 2001 is that in 2001 there was a substantial overinvestment in an unproven field, in 200
by roughly 6y ago
I should have said "endogenous." The difference between 2020, 2008, and 2001 is that in 2001 there was a substantial overinvestment in an unproven field, in 2008 there was a widespread underpricing of risk, and in 2020 a virus hit. 2020 doesn't say anything* about the broader economy - there's nothing "wrong" in the 2019 economy to inform 2020 or 2021 or beyond.
The difference is worth noting because an awful lot of the punditry's model for recessions is to assume there needs to be a structural adjustment that involves some amount of turmoil and there's nothing that should be done to prevent that. In this case, there's no reason to assume that, and no reason to assume that economic turmoil is either necessary or beneficial. A disaster happened, and we should view it like a structure fire, not a bankruptcy.
*except of course that a huge portion of the country has a precarious living situation, our health care system is a disaster, and our political system was wholly unprepared for any actual challenge. There's all kinds of deep foundational ills in the economy, but none of those would have caused a sudden severe spike in unemployment absent the pandemic.
- riffic 6y agothe concept of antifragility would like to have a word with your thesis.