2 ms·

Notably the survey paper you linked is about outperformance in specific tasks. That's not AGI.

• Veedrac 6y ago
  ‘Full Automation of Labor (All Human Jobs)’ pretty clearly encompases AGI.
  • nl 6y ago
    Not a single respondant thought "Full Automation of Labor" was possible in 50 years. The average prediction was nearly 125 years.
    • Veedrac 6y ago
      The bars are quartiles, so 25% of the probability mass is for ~53 years away or closer. Note that timelines for the HLMI variant of the question[1], which was asked to more people, had more like a 50% aggregate probability for 50 years away, per Figure 1. [1] “High-level machine intelligence” (HLMI) is achieved when unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers.