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Name any researcher at either of those organisations who publically have stated human level AGI is possible within 50 years. It's an aspiration, but not someth
by nl 6y ago
Name any researcher at either of those organisations who publically have stated human level AGI is possible within 50 years.
It's an aspiration, but not something anyone believes on the horizon.
- nl 6y agoNotably the survey paper you linked is about outperformance in specific tasks. That's not AGI.
- Veedrac 6y ago‘Full Automation of Labor (All Human Jobs)’ pretty clearly encompases AGI.
- nl 6y agoNot a single respondant thought "Full Automation of Labor" was possible in 50 years. The average prediction was nearly 125 years.
- Veedrac 6y agoThe bars are quartiles, so 25% of the probability mass is for ~53 years away or closer. Note that timelines for the HLMI variant of the question[1], which was asked to more people, had more like a 50% aggregate probability for 50 years away, per Figure 1. [1] “High-level machine intelligence” (HLMI) is achieved when unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers.