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Here's my favorite unemployment indicator: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 It's the percent of w
by nostromo 6y ago
Here's my favorite unemployment indicator:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060
It's the percent of working age (25-54) adults in the labor force. The unemployment rate has lots of oddities that can make the economy seem better (or worse) than it often is. Note for example the long, slow, decline from 2008 to 2015, long after the recession was officially over -- and how we've currently erased almost all gains since that nadir.
- lotsofpulp 6y agoI find change in wages and underemployment to be better indicators than unemployment.
- TrueGeek 6y agoWhy is “working age” assumed to end at 54?
- treyfitty 6y agoIt's a vestige of the old manufacturing days.
- lotsofpulp 6y agoI wonder what the statistics are on 50+ year olds losing their jobs and/or experiencing a reduction in income. Either for cost cutting reasons (old employees are costlier to employ) or due to injuries and health issues. I would assume the probability of loss or reduction in income is significant for many people once they reach 50+.
- scrose 6y agoThe site refers to it as the ‘prime working age’ and breaks down the other age categories elsewhere. Check it out at https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2015/08/the-composition-effect-in-the-labor-force-participation-rate https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2015/08/the-composition-effe...
- panda888888 6y agoIsn't some of this due to demographic/societal changes? For example, it used to be quite rare to go to graduate school. Now, something like 10-15% of the US population has an advanced degree, and I bet many of those people were in school after age 25.
- mjfl 6y agowhy was it so low in the 1950s?
- jlnthws 6y agoWomen at home I guess.
- tonyedgecombe 6y agoIt would be interesting to see the same graph just for men.
- seafoam 6y agohttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300025 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300025 It is not a pretty picture
- nojito 6y agoThat’s not the same graph because that includes retirees.
- seafoam 6y agoRetirees are not what is driving the trend : https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11324230 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11324230
- nojito 6y agoOf course it is. 55+ is at 38% 20+ is at 69% 18% of the pop is 65 and older https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPPOP65UPTOZSUSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPPOP65UPTOZSUSA
- TheCoelacanth 6y agoLabor force participation rate is (number unemployed + number employed)/population, so it's more of a measure of how many people want to be working than of how many people actually are working. Employment rate is better for seeing how many people are and aren't working. Adults 25-54: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 Was near an all-time high until last February mainly due to women joining the workforce, though with a sharp drop in the past year. Males 25-54: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LREM25MAUSA156S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LREM25MAUSA156S Was down about 8 points from the peak in the 60s in 2019, then dropped another 5 points in 2020. Still slightly more likely to be employed than women in the same age range.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]