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I'm pretty confident it will make it over the line into viability eventually, but it's a really tough problem and it is going to take decades. There's still a l

by simonh 6y ago

I'm pretty confident it will make it over the line into viability eventually, but it's a really tough problem and it is going to take decades. There's still a lot about the engineering required we just don't fully understand, and it will take a lot of tests and investigation on a lot of different fronts to make meaningful progress. So I agree, we're in it for the long haul on this one.

pfdietz 6y ago
Why are you confident it will be viable? Remember, commercial viability means not just that it works, but that it's better than any competitor. Why is it that fusion will win this competition? It's the nature of most technologies to fail in the face of something better.
- runarberg 6y ago
  I was reading somewhere that the earliest point for commercial viability will be in the 2060s. By which point we can assume there have been build a lot of renewable energy infrastructure (or else the climate crisis is still in full effect; and I can’t really think about what kind of society will have evolved from that disaster). This should bring down the cost of renewables even more then today as economics of scales grow exponentially. Making the quest for comersial viability of fusion even tougher. I honestly wonder if fusion will ever be commercially viable. And if all these experiments will simply lead up to us realizing that: “cool, so fusion power is possible on Earth. Now what should we do with it?” But hey. Maybe it will be the energy of the future on Antarctica or the Moon or something instead.
- simonh 6y ago
  It just a best estimate, there’s no way to be sure at this stage. Plenty of smart people think it will and plenty think that it won’t. I think there are so many different promising alternative approaches that hope to solve this problem, that on balance I’m not prepared to bet against every single one of them not panning out. It’s just a guess though. I agree renewables might make it mostly moot, but there’s still the issue of base load. Storage might solve it, but if fusion can be made safe and cheap enough it could still have a niche. Then there’s Mars and the belt. There’s no guarantee we’ll colonise it permanently, but if we do fusion could be really useful as it’s far enough out that solar is significantly less efficient. Also fusion reactors could be handy power plants for spacecraft. Cheap reusable heavy lift systems may make all of this feasible. Finally, the future is a long, long time. If we don’t wipe ourselves out, eventually we will every technology that is viable will be achieved (not possible, viable).

by simonh 6y ago

pfdietz 6y ago

Why are you confident it will be viable? Remember, commercial viability means not just that it works, but that it's better than any competitor. Why is it that fusion will win this competition? It's the nature of most technologies to fail in the face of something better.

runarberg 6y ago
I was reading somewhere that the earliest point for commercial viability will be in the 2060s. By which point we can assume there have been build a lot of renewable energy infrastructure (or else the climate crisis is still in full effect; and I can’t really think about what kind of society will have evolved from that disaster). This should bring down the cost of renewables even more then today as economics of scales grow exponentially. Making the quest for comersial viability of fusion even tougher. I honestly wonder if fusion will ever be commercially viable. And if all these experiments will simply lead up to us realizing that: “cool, so fusion power is possible on Earth. Now what should we do with it?” But hey. Maybe it will be the energy of the future on Antarctica or the Moon or something instead.
simonh 6y ago
It just a best estimate, there’s no way to be sure at this stage. Plenty of smart people think it will and plenty think that it won’t. I think there are so many different promising alternative approaches that hope to solve this problem, that on balance I’m not prepared to bet against every single one of them not panning out. It’s just a guess though. I agree renewables might make it mostly moot, but there’s still the issue of base load. Storage might solve it, but if fusion can be made safe and cheap enough it could still have a niche. Then there’s Mars and the belt. There’s no guarantee we’ll colonise it permanently, but if we do fusion could be really useful as it’s far enough out that solar is significantly less efficient. Also fusion reactors could be handy power plants for spacecraft. Cheap reusable heavy lift systems may make all of this feasible. Finally, the future is a long, long time. If we don’t wipe ourselves out, eventually we will every technology that is viable will be achieved (not possible, viable).