4 ms·

All numbers are Biden-Trump in 2020: People under 30: 60-36. White men: 38-61 Black women: 90-9 So there are definitely some strong predictors there. Sourc

• evgen 6y ago
  If only the researchers were as smart as you apparently think you are and somehow remembered to control for these very obvious factors. Oh yeah, they did.
  • gamegoblin 6y ago
    I was not commenting on the main article about the research, but instead on the comment by user karaterobot that I am responding to which -- if I am interpreting it correctly -- asks the question how good one can guess purely based on those 3 demographic axes. As you note, the researcher's predictor appears to do better than random even controlling for these obvious demographic skews, which is fascinating.
    • stkdump 6y ago
      Actually, you have to answer something more from the other side: for a randomly picked person (voter), i.e. considering the distribution of race, gender and age in the population: how likely is a guess just based on these factors correct. The number you come up with might actually not be as far from 50% as you would expect.