5 ms·

"Accuracy remained high (69%) even when controlling for age, gender, and ethnicity."

• callesgg 6y ago
  So your race accounts for less than 3% despite 89% of all black people voting left, that seams strange. I did not do the full math but just the ballpark numbers I entered in to my calculator says that it should account for about 11%. * 89% according to numbers from nbc Edit: So say I assume that every African American person I see votes left. 13% of the population is African American 89% of them actually vote left. 13% * 89% = 11% Then I simply guess on all non African American a 50/50 shot. I should then be right 50% + 11% = 61% of the time.
  • rayiner 6y ago
    The study looked at political orientation (liberal versus conservative or left versus right), not political affiliation (Democrat versus republican). 89% of African Americans vote Democrat for complex historical and sociological reasons. But they have a large diversity of political opinions: https://press.princeton.edu/ideas/the-roots-of-black-political-unity https://press.princeton.edu/ideas/the-roots-of-black-politic.... About 30% of Black people today identify as conservative, versus 10% in 1970. But Democratic Party affiliation has been in the 90% range throughout that whole period.
    • deleted 6y ago
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  • callesgg 6y ago
    Hum i take this back the calculation should be 0.13 * 0.89 + 0.87 * 0.5 = 55% total accuracy