4 ms·

USA does the same don't see any impact there

s1artibartfast 6y ago
A notable difference is that the US declared this policy upfront, while the EU is doing it late in the game. Astrazeneca may have made other supply chain decisions to build infrastructure outside the EU had they known this.
- Tehnix 6y ago
  > Astrazeneca would have may have made other supply chain decisions to build infrastructure outside the EU had they known this. They absolutely would not. There is so much that goes into the regulations at play here (GxP specifically in Europe, similar to FDA in USA) and building out capacity takes years. They were struggling enough with restructuring their existing production towards this vaccine. It's an incredibly complex system, for good reason, but it does mean it's extremely slow moving.
  - s1artibartfast 6y ago
    I disagree. Manufacturing planning is slow and complex, but not on the scale of years for the covid vaccine. AZ has a complex internal and CMO supply chain with over 20 sites around the world, much of which has be brought online within the last 6 months [1]. For example, much of the European shortfall is tied to expected production at the Belgian CMO partner NOVASEP. AZ first partnered with them in June 2020 and product was expected to be shipping 6 months later in Q1 2021 Over the last 12 months AZ has made a number of similar decisions for retooling or expanding existing facilities, as well as partnering with CMOs based on their distribution plans, which are now disrupted. Had they known about an EU export ban upfront, they may have negotiated different quantiles with ex-EU partners, or engaged additional Ex-EU partners. https://bioprocessintl.com/bioprocess-insider/global-markets/astrazeneca-manufacturing-should-take-lions-share-of-credit-for-vaccine-success/ https://bioprocessintl.com/bioprocess-insider/global-markets...
    - pgeorgi 6y ago
      > Had they known about an EU export ban upfront Had the EU known that AZ has a different understanding of the contract both had signed (to put it as neutral as possible), the EU-side signature might not have happened. In that case, the EU could have invested more in other vaccine providers instead of that dud.
      - s1artibartfast 6y ago
        The contract was very clear on the obligations and expectations. It defined a process for AZ to notify the EU of shortfall, which AZ followed. AZ was required to put forth it's best efforts to meet the targets, which it did. The EU did not negotiate any exclusivity for EU production or penalties for missed targets, and it is crazy to think this was an accidental oversight by the EU legal team. The EU is clearly very interested in this "dud" because their few other vaccine investments were unlucky, performed worse, and didn't make it through trials
        pgeorgi 6y ago
        > The EU is clearly very interested in this "dud" because their few other vaccine investments were unlucky, performed worse, and didn't make it through trials https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html#distribution-tab https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccin... claims that 47M doses in total have been distributed across the EU. Of those, 8.7M are AZ. If that company continues to be such a high maintenance supplier (the others had production shortages as well, but _somehow_ they managed to not make a mess out of that that made EU bureaucrats consider it necessary to set up an export control instrument just for them) any effort to get AZ involved might have been better invested in supporting any of the others. For reference, the sums per product that I extracted from that data set (as of 2021-03-05): AstraZeneca 8.682.532 BBIBV-CorV 550.000 Moderna 3.069.953 Pfizer/BioNTech 34.366.485 Sputnik V 46.000 Unknown 604.275 -------------------------- Total 47.319.245
      - kcartlidge 6y ago
finiteseries 6y ago
0 countries are relying on vaccine exports from the US. 0 countries planned their rollouts around vaccine exports from the US. 0 countries’ planned rollouts have been upended by new US export controls. The impact will be more evident in a few months when the US begins playing vaccine diplomacy with under supplied EU countries.
- pgeorgi 6y ago
  > when the US begins playing vaccine diplomacy with under supplied EU countries. In a few months at least one of two things will have happened: 1. The EU managed to sort out its logistical issues 2. Russia and China already stepped in (as they already do in some places), leaving no room for Washingtonian vaccine diplomacy

A notable difference is that the US declared this policy upfront, while the EU is doing it late in the game. Astrazeneca may have made other supply chain decisions to build infrastructure outside the EU had they known this.

Tehnix 6y ago
> Astrazeneca would have may have made other supply chain decisions to build infrastructure outside the EU had they known this. They absolutely would not. There is so much that goes into the regulations at play here (GxP specifically in Europe, similar to FDA in USA) and building out capacity takes years. They were struggling enough with restructuring their existing production towards this vaccine. It's an incredibly complex system, for good reason, but it does mean it's extremely slow moving.
- s1artibartfast 6y ago
  I disagree. Manufacturing planning is slow and complex, but not on the scale of years for the covid vaccine. AZ has a complex internal and CMO supply chain with over 20 sites around the world, much of which has be brought online within the last 6 months [1]. For example, much of the European shortfall is tied to expected production at the Belgian CMO partner NOVASEP. AZ first partnered with them in June 2020 and product was expected to be shipping 6 months later in Q1 2021 Over the last 12 months AZ has made a number of similar decisions for retooling or expanding existing facilities, as well as partnering with CMOs based on their distribution plans, which are now disrupted. Had they known about an EU export ban upfront, they may have negotiated different quantiles with ex-EU partners, or engaged additional Ex-EU partners. https://bioprocessintl.com/bioprocess-insider/global-markets/astrazeneca-manufacturing-should-take-lions-share-of-credit-for-vaccine-success/ https://bioprocessintl.com/bioprocess-insider/global-markets...
  - pgeorgi 6y ago
    > Had they known about an EU export ban upfront Had the EU known that AZ has a different understanding of the contract both had signed (to put it as neutral as possible), the EU-side signature might not have happened. In that case, the EU could have invested more in other vaccine providers instead of that dud.
    - s1artibartfast 6y ago
      The contract was very clear on the obligations and expectations. It defined a process for AZ to notify the EU of shortfall, which AZ followed. AZ was required to put forth it's best efforts to meet the targets, which it did. The EU did not negotiate any exclusivity for EU production or penalties for missed targets, and it is crazy to think this was an accidental oversight by the EU legal team. The EU is clearly very interested in this "dud" because their few other vaccine investments were unlucky, performed worse, and didn't make it through trials
      - pgeorgi 6y ago
        > The EU is clearly very interested in this "dud" because their few other vaccine investments were unlucky, performed worse, and didn't make it through trials https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html#distribution-tab https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccin... claims that 47M doses in total have been distributed across the EU. Of those, 8.7M are AZ. If that company continues to be such a high maintenance supplier (the others had production shortages as well, but _somehow_ they managed to not make a mess out of that that made EU bureaucrats consider it necessary to set up an export control instrument just for them) any effort to get AZ involved might have been better invested in supporting any of the others. For reference, the sums per product that I extracted from that data set (as of 2021-03-05): AstraZeneca 8.682.532 BBIBV-CorV 550.000 Moderna 3.069.953 Pfizer/BioNTech 34.366.485 Sputnik V 46.000 Unknown 604.275 -------------------------- Total 47.319.245
    - kcartlidge 6y ago

finiteseries 6y ago

0 countries are relying on vaccine exports from the US. 0 countries planned their rollouts around vaccine exports from the US. 0 countries’ planned rollouts have been upended by new US export controls. The impact will be more evident in a few months when the US begins playing vaccine diplomacy with under supplied EU countries.

pgeorgi 6y ago
> when the US begins playing vaccine diplomacy with under supplied EU countries. In a few months at least one of two things will have happened: 1. The EU managed to sort out its logistical issues 2. Russia and China already stepped in (as they already do in some places), leaving no room for Washingtonian vaccine diplomacy