3 ms·

It looks incredibly bad for nations to be playing 'vaccine nationalism' and banning exports of anything, especially life medicine, to other nations. It looks po

by jariel 6y ago

It looks incredibly bad for nations to be playing 'vaccine nationalism' and banning exports of anything, especially life medicine, to other nations. It looks possibly very petty and incompetent. The vaccine maker will claim that their commercial obligations are to Australia, the EU is literally overriding commercial deals for nationalist reasons, very bad, and exposes their own failure to negotiate a good deal, especially on home turf. The only upside is the PR to some local citizens who want to feel that 'The EU is doing their job protecting us'. Successful nations are not resorting to this. The EU is way behind and it's a really look. The UK is 33% vaccinated and is going to fully open up in a few months, once they are full-blown open, then the clock is ticking on Von Der Leyen's job and the credibility of the EU because every day that goes by while US/UK are full steam ahead is a slap in the face. If the EU is 6 months behind fully opening up then the consequences - were there actually any way for EU citizens to do anything about it - would be severe. Since the EU political system is shielded from populism like 'elections' and certainly 'referendums' they're probably safe. I suggest the elites will band together and put all the blame on Von Der Leyen. But it may not come to that, production is ramping up it may not be so bad. This is the biggest crisis of our era so the headline optics are really important, and the underlying materiality of lock-downs are felt by every citizen in the country. Imagine 60 million people under duress, looking next door, seeing how everything is open and happy? That's a political nightmare. The vaccination data is here [1] At the current rate, UK is open in a few months, US a bit thereafter. EU won't be able to open for technically 2 years (!!) so it's going to really depend on how vaccinations ramp up. Every politician is sweating. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations Edit: I should add, Italy blocking shipments to Australia is a completely different kind of communication than for example Trump, saying, earlier in the pandemic that he would 'prioritize Americans'. The later is a tough, but reasonable sounding policy. But actively blocking shipments especially when agreements have been made - it's bad. Honestly, if it were a remotely 'poorer country' like Brazil or whatever ... it would be even worse. It's just bad however you cut it. The headline you want is 'we'll be done by August' etc..

Isinlor 6y ago
UK banned export of some 100 medicines that could be possible treatment for COVID early last year. USA never intended to export vaccines under Trump administration, Biden is upholding it. The only difference really is that our EU politicians had big words, but when the rubber hit the read went the same route as everyone else. To be honest, EU politicians were naive. We should have banned all exports very early on as everyone else did and then graciously allow exports on case by case basis to the level we have now. It would have been a lot better optics, but the same practical outcome.
- jariel 6y ago
  The EU is not 'behind' because of it's naive generosity to other nations. An export ban would have made hardly any difference as production would have probably been aligned around the fact. The EU is not 'naive' - it is 'failing' perhaps the most important test since it's inception. Being a 'few months behind' US/UK/China etc. will mostly ok, but if it's more than 6 months behind, then this failure will resonate for decades. Fair or not fair, right or wrong, the facts will be immaterial to the headlines that will ring for a very, very long time.
  - Isinlor 6y ago
    EU is not distributing vaccines. This is up to the states. For example Denmark is doing quite well, but Bulgaria is doing quite bad. So to repeat, healthcare is not a responsibility of the EU.
    - jariel 6y ago
      The end-point of distribution is besides the point. It's not part of the discussion and is not even a problem anywhere really. The EU is definitely the entity responsible for acquiring the vaccines on behalf of nation states - this is what is failing. The 'delay' is not due to Denmark inability to field nurses, it's in the EU's ability to secure product - for whatever reason. And in the end, it won't matter. If the EU ends up 6 months behind other nations 'there will be no excuses'. I think that they'll probably catch up, but there's a real possibility they don't.
clort 6y ago
I don't think the UK is 33% vaccinated by the way. The UK might have given a half dose to 33% of the population and this might do quite a lot to dent the severity of the disease and its spread but this is not full vaccination by any means. Further down on the page that you linked, there is a chart showing rates of full vaccination which says that the UK is 1.3% fully vaccinated.
- g_p 6y ago
  Based on the UK's approach to "first dose first", and the results of their early data from those who have been vacinated with one dose, the results are promising. Given the public policy goal is to prevent hospitals being overwhelmed due to admissions with the virus (and the commensurate decline into ICU on a ventilator etc.) the vaccine is doing two things - firstly it's reducing the number of people catching the virus. Secondly, it's reducing the number of people being hospitalised with Covid. That then has a follow-on impacat that there's a reduction in deaths (though that data isn't complete yet for the AZ vaccine, given timeframes, and the need to wait long enough before measuring mortality outcomes). With good results from a single dose, even after a period of time, in a sense these people are "vaccinated". If the UK needs to re-vaccinate everyone with a booster twice once every 180 days (for example), that's "only" 378k vaccine doses per day, and they can deliver at well above that rate. If the supply increases as projected, there is potential for as many as 4m doses a week to be getting administered by April, with everyone having their first dose by June. Pressure is then reduced on hospitals (as long as the vaccine is effective against prevalent strains) as you roll out subsequent doses - the 1st dose figures seem promising. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-data-show-vaccines-reduce-severe-covid-19-in-older-adults https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-data-show-vaccines-re... for over 80s https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3790399 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3790399 for healthcare workers under 65

by jariel 6y ago

Isinlor 6y ago

UK banned export of some 100 medicines that could be possible treatment for COVID early last year. USA never intended to export vaccines under Trump administration, Biden is upholding it. The only difference really is that our EU politicians had big words, but when the rubber hit the read went the same route as everyone else. To be honest, EU politicians were naive. We should have banned all exports very early on as everyone else did and then graciously allow exports on case by case basis to the level we have now. It would have been a lot better optics, but the same practical outcome.

jariel 6y ago
The EU is not 'behind' because of it's naive generosity to other nations. An export ban would have made hardly any difference as production would have probably been aligned around the fact. The EU is not 'naive' - it is 'failing' perhaps the most important test since it's inception. Being a 'few months behind' US/UK/China etc. will mostly ok, but if it's more than 6 months behind, then this failure will resonate for decades. Fair or not fair, right or wrong, the facts will be immaterial to the headlines that will ring for a very, very long time.
- Isinlor 6y ago
  EU is not distributing vaccines. This is up to the states. For example Denmark is doing quite well, but Bulgaria is doing quite bad. So to repeat, healthcare is not a responsibility of the EU.
  - jariel 6y ago
    The end-point of distribution is besides the point. It's not part of the discussion and is not even a problem anywhere really. The EU is definitely the entity responsible for acquiring the vaccines on behalf of nation states - this is what is failing. The 'delay' is not due to Denmark inability to field nurses, it's in the EU's ability to secure product - for whatever reason. And in the end, it won't matter. If the EU ends up 6 months behind other nations 'there will be no excuses'. I think that they'll probably catch up, but there's a real possibility they don't.

clort 6y ago

I don't think the UK is 33% vaccinated by the way. The UK might have given a half dose to 33% of the population and this might do quite a lot to dent the severity of the disease and its spread but this is not full vaccination by any means. Further down on the page that you linked, there is a chart showing rates of full vaccination which says that the UK is 1.3% fully vaccinated.

g_p 6y ago
Based on the UK's approach to "first dose first", and the results of their early data from those who have been vacinated with one dose, the results are promising. Given the public policy goal is to prevent hospitals being overwhelmed due to admissions with the virus (and the commensurate decline into ICU on a ventilator etc.) the vaccine is doing two things - firstly it's reducing the number of people catching the virus. Secondly, it's reducing the number of people being hospitalised with Covid. That then has a follow-on impacat that there's a reduction in deaths (though that data isn't complete yet for the AZ vaccine, given timeframes, and the need to wait long enough before measuring mortality outcomes). With good results from a single dose, even after a period of time, in a sense these people are "vaccinated". If the UK needs to re-vaccinate everyone with a booster twice once every 180 days (for example), that's "only" 378k vaccine doses per day, and they can deliver at well above that rate. If the supply increases as projected, there is potential for as many as 4m doses a week to be getting administered by April, with everyone having their first dose by June. Pressure is then reduced on hospitals (as long as the vaccine is effective against prevalent strains) as you roll out subsequent doses - the 1st dose figures seem promising. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-data-show-vaccines-reduce-severe-covid-19-in-older-adults https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-data-show-vaccines-re... for over 80s https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3790399 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3790399 for healthcare workers under 65