6 ms·

It doesn't matter how much legitimacy Italy/EU might have, this is just going to have very bad optics overall. A few wins for the local nationalists i.e. 'our

by jariel 6y ago

It doesn't matter how much legitimacy Italy/EU might have, this is just going to have very bad optics overall. A few wins for the local nationalists i.e. 'our people first' ... but it comes with just as much of a downside. Better just to get the vaccines moving.

fwsgonzo 6y ago
What's the downside? I don't have a clue about these things.
- jariel 6y ago
  It looks incredibly bad for nations to be playing 'vaccine nationalism' and banning exports of anything, especially life medicine, to other nations. It looks possibly very petty and incompetent. The vaccine maker will claim that their commercial obligations are to Australia, the EU is literally overriding commercial deals for nationalist reasons, very bad, and exposes their own failure to negotiate a good deal, especially on home turf. The only upside is the PR to some local citizens who want to feel that 'The EU is doing their job protecting us'. Successful nations are not resorting to this. The EU is way behind and it's a really look. The UK is 33% vaccinated and is going to fully open up in a few months, once they are full-blown open, then the clock is ticking on Von Der Leyen's job and the credibility of the EU because every day that goes by while US/UK are full steam ahead is a slap in the face. If the EU is 6 months behind fully opening up then the consequences - were there actually any way for EU citizens to do anything about it - would be severe. Since the EU political system is shielded from populism like 'elections' and certainly 'referendums' they're probably safe. I suggest the elites will band together and put all the blame on Von Der Leyen. But it may not come to that, production is ramping up it may not be so bad. This is the biggest crisis of our era so the headline optics are really important, and the underlying materiality of lock-downs are felt by every citizen in the country. Imagine 60 million people under duress, looking next door, seeing how everything is open and happy? That's a political nightmare. The vaccination data is here [1] At the current rate, UK is open in a few months, US a bit thereafter. EU won't be able to open for technically 2 years (!!) so it's going to really depend on how vaccinations ramp up. Every politician is sweating. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations Edit: I should add, Italy blocking shipments to Australia is a completely different kind of communication than for example Trump, saying, earlier in the pandemic that he would 'prioritize Americans'. The later is a tough, but reasonable sounding policy. But actively blocking shipments especially when agreements have been made - it's bad. Honestly, if it were a remotely 'poorer country' like Brazil or whatever ... it would be even worse. It's just bad however you cut it. The headline you want is 'we'll be done by August' etc..
  - Isinlor 6y ago
    UK banned export of some 100 medicines that could be possible treatment for COVID early last year. USA never intended to export vaccines under Trump administration, Biden is upholding it. The only difference really is that our EU politicians had big words, but when the rubber hit the read went the same route as everyone else. To be honest, EU politicians were naive. We should have banned all exports very early on as everyone else did and then graciously allow exports on case by case basis to the level we have now. It would have been a lot better optics, but the same practical outcome.
    - jariel 6y ago
      The EU is not 'behind' because of it's naive generosity to other nations. An export ban would have made hardly any difference as production would have probably been aligned around the fact. The EU is not 'naive' - it is 'failing' perhaps the most important test since it's inception. Being a 'few months behind' US/UK/China etc. will mostly ok, but if it's more than 6 months behind, then this failure will resonate for decades. Fair or not fair, right or wrong, the facts will be immaterial to the headlines that will ring for a very, very long time.
      - Isinlor 6y ago
        EU is not distributing vaccines. This is up to the states. For example Denmark is doing quite well, but Bulgaria is doing quite bad. So to repeat, healthcare is not a responsibility of the EU.
        jariel 6y ago
        The end-point of distribution is besides the point. It's not part of the discussion and is not even a problem anywhere really. The EU is definitely the entity responsible for acquiring the vaccines on behalf of nation states - this is what is failing. The 'delay' is not due to Denmark inability to field nurses, it's in the EU's ability to secure product - for whatever reason. And in the end, it won't matter. If the EU ends up 6 months behind other nations 'there will be no excuses'. I think that they'll probably catch up, but there's a real possibility they don't.
- kemiller2002 6y ago
  People/Politicians etc. have a long memory. If you think of it as a "treat others how you would like to be treated," eventually it will come down to a situation where Italy or some other EU nation will need assistance. In a "my people first" scenario, it's always easy to find a reason why you should not help someone else while justifying that your aid is needed by your people. By blocking the vaccine, they are setting themselves up to be retaliated against sometime in the future.
  - heavenlyblue 6y ago
    > have a long memory I would argue generally it’s agreed that humans have short memory.
kyriakos 6y ago
USA does the same don't see any impact there
- s1artibartfast 6y ago
  A notable difference is that the US declared this policy upfront, while the EU is doing it late in the game. Astrazeneca may have made other supply chain decisions to build infrastructure outside the EU had they known this.
  - Tehnix 6y ago
    > Astrazeneca would have may have made other supply chain decisions to build infrastructure outside the EU had they known this. They absolutely would not. There is so much that goes into the regulations at play here (GxP specifically in Europe, similar to FDA in USA) and building out capacity takes years. They were struggling enough with restructuring their existing production towards this vaccine. It's an incredibly complex system, for good reason, but it does mean it's extremely slow moving.
    - s1artibartfast 6y ago
      I disagree. Manufacturing planning is slow and complex, but not on the scale of years for the covid vaccine. AZ has a complex internal and CMO supply chain with over 20 sites around the world, much of which has be brought online within the last 6 months [1]. For example, much of the European shortfall is tied to expected production at the Belgian CMO partner NOVASEP. AZ first partnered with them in June 2020 and product was expected to be shipping 6 months later in Q1 2021 Over the last 12 months AZ has made a number of similar decisions for retooling or expanding existing facilities, as well as partnering with CMOs based on their distribution plans, which are now disrupted. Had they known about an EU export ban upfront, they may have negotiated different quantiles with ex-EU partners, or engaged additional Ex-EU partners. https://bioprocessintl.com/bioprocess-insider/global-markets/astrazeneca-manufacturing-should-take-lions-share-of-credit-for-vaccine-success/ https://bioprocessintl.com/bioprocess-insider/global-markets...
throwaway3699 6y ago
"Our people first" is much more than nationalist chest thumping. When a plane is crashing from the sky, you put your own mask on before helping your neighbour, otherwise you risk both parties getting hurt (not just one).
- qart 6y ago
  India has been giving away planeloads of vaccines. Presumably, they are going to get used by healthcare workers and other supporting industries in those countries. I don't mind if I have to wait a couple of months longer for my turn.
- zpeti 6y ago
  Yes but it doesn’t help that you just complained loudly about the Uk breaking international law, then you go and break private company contracts with eu law to obviously cover your own backside in failed negotiations. This is the EUs bullying negotiation strategy which they employ everywhere spectacularly failing.
  - Dogeke 6y ago
    AstraZeneca is the one breaching the contract, the EU export ban will help the private company fulfil its contractual obligations it signed with the EU.
    - thu2111 6y ago
      AstraZeneca is not breaching its contract with the EU. That appears to be propaganda: note that the article doesn't actually state what part of the contract is being breached, and the link in the first paragraph that superficially looks like it would support this claim goes to an article that's not about contracts at all, in fact the word contract doesn't appear anywhere in that article. The EU accidentally leaked its own contract with AstraZeneca after trying to redact it. It showed that AZ were correct about the wording of the contract and the EU had been lying. There is no real disagreement about that anymore: the EU is on the wrong side of that dispute which is why there's been a lot of posturing but no court cases. BTW several EU countries have stockpiles of the AZ vaccine they aren't using because their citizens aren't turning up for appointments or volunteering to be vaxxed.

by jariel 6y ago

fwsgonzo 6y ago

What's the downside? I don't have a clue about these things.

jariel 6y ago
It looks incredibly bad for nations to be playing 'vaccine nationalism' and banning exports of anything, especially life medicine, to other nations. It looks possibly very petty and incompetent. The vaccine maker will claim that their commercial obligations are to Australia, the EU is literally overriding commercial deals for nationalist reasons, very bad, and exposes their own failure to negotiate a good deal, especially on home turf. The only upside is the PR to some local citizens who want to feel that 'The EU is doing their job protecting us'. Successful nations are not resorting to this. The EU is way behind and it's a really look. The UK is 33% vaccinated and is going to fully open up in a few months, once they are full-blown open, then the clock is ticking on Von Der Leyen's job and the credibility of the EU because every day that goes by while US/UK are full steam ahead is a slap in the face. If the EU is 6 months behind fully opening up then the consequences - were there actually any way for EU citizens to do anything about it - would be severe. Since the EU political system is shielded from populism like 'elections' and certainly 'referendums' they're probably safe. I suggest the elites will band together and put all the blame on Von Der Leyen. But it may not come to that, production is ramping up it may not be so bad. This is the biggest crisis of our era so the headline optics are really important, and the underlying materiality of lock-downs are felt by every citizen in the country. Imagine 60 million people under duress, looking next door, seeing how everything is open and happy? That's a political nightmare. The vaccination data is here [1] At the current rate, UK is open in a few months, US a bit thereafter. EU won't be able to open for technically 2 years (!!) so it's going to really depend on how vaccinations ramp up. Every politician is sweating. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations Edit: I should add, Italy blocking shipments to Australia is a completely different kind of communication than for example Trump, saying, earlier in the pandemic that he would 'prioritize Americans'. The later is a tough, but reasonable sounding policy. But actively blocking shipments especially when agreements have been made - it's bad. Honestly, if it were a remotely 'poorer country' like Brazil or whatever ... it would be even worse. It's just bad however you cut it. The headline you want is 'we'll be done by August' etc..
- Isinlor 6y ago
  UK banned export of some 100 medicines that could be possible treatment for COVID early last year. USA never intended to export vaccines under Trump administration, Biden is upholding it. The only difference really is that our EU politicians had big words, but when the rubber hit the read went the same route as everyone else. To be honest, EU politicians were naive. We should have banned all exports very early on as everyone else did and then graciously allow exports on case by case basis to the level we have now. It would have been a lot better optics, but the same practical outcome.
  - jariel 6y ago
    The EU is not 'behind' because of it's naive generosity to other nations. An export ban would have made hardly any difference as production would have probably been aligned around the fact. The EU is not 'naive' - it is 'failing' perhaps the most important test since it's inception. Being a 'few months behind' US/UK/China etc. will mostly ok, but if it's more than 6 months behind, then this failure will resonate for decades. Fair or not fair, right or wrong, the facts will be immaterial to the headlines that will ring for a very, very long time.
    - Isinlor 6y ago
      EU is not distributing vaccines. This is up to the states. For example Denmark is doing quite well, but Bulgaria is doing quite bad. So to repeat, healthcare is not a responsibility of the EU.
      - jariel 6y ago
        The end-point of distribution is besides the point. It's not part of the discussion and is not even a problem anywhere really. The EU is definitely the entity responsible for acquiring the vaccines on behalf of nation states - this is what is failing. The 'delay' is not due to Denmark inability to field nurses, it's in the EU's ability to secure product - for whatever reason. And in the end, it won't matter. If the EU ends up 6 months behind other nations 'there will be no excuses'. I think that they'll probably catch up, but there's a real possibility they don't.
kemiller2002 6y ago
People/Politicians etc. have a long memory. If you think of it as a "treat others how you would like to be treated," eventually it will come down to a situation where Italy or some other EU nation will need assistance. In a "my people first" scenario, it's always easy to find a reason why you should not help someone else while justifying that your aid is needed by your people. By blocking the vaccine, they are setting themselves up to be retaliated against sometime in the future.
- heavenlyblue 6y ago
  > have a long memory I would argue generally it’s agreed that humans have short memory.

kyriakos 6y ago

USA does the same don't see any impact there

s1artibartfast 6y ago
A notable difference is that the US declared this policy upfront, while the EU is doing it late in the game. Astrazeneca may have made other supply chain decisions to build infrastructure outside the EU had they known this.
- Tehnix 6y ago
  > Astrazeneca would have may have made other supply chain decisions to build infrastructure outside the EU had they known this. They absolutely would not. There is so much that goes into the regulations at play here (GxP specifically in Europe, similar to FDA in USA) and building out capacity takes years. They were struggling enough with restructuring their existing production towards this vaccine. It's an incredibly complex system, for good reason, but it does mean it's extremely slow moving.
  - s1artibartfast 6y ago
    I disagree. Manufacturing planning is slow and complex, but not on the scale of years for the covid vaccine. AZ has a complex internal and CMO supply chain with over 20 sites around the world, much of which has be brought online within the last 6 months [1]. For example, much of the European shortfall is tied to expected production at the Belgian CMO partner NOVASEP. AZ first partnered with them in June 2020 and product was expected to be shipping 6 months later in Q1 2021 Over the last 12 months AZ has made a number of similar decisions for retooling or expanding existing facilities, as well as partnering with CMOs based on their distribution plans, which are now disrupted. Had they known about an EU export ban upfront, they may have negotiated different quantiles with ex-EU partners, or engaged additional Ex-EU partners. https://bioprocessintl.com/bioprocess-insider/global-markets/astrazeneca-manufacturing-should-take-lions-share-of-credit-for-vaccine-success/ https://bioprocessintl.com/bioprocess-insider/global-markets...

throwaway3699 6y ago

"Our people first" is much more than nationalist chest thumping. When a plane is crashing from the sky, you put your own mask on before helping your neighbour, otherwise you risk both parties getting hurt (not just one).

qart 6y ago
India has been giving away planeloads of vaccines. Presumably, they are going to get used by healthcare workers and other supporting industries in those countries. I don't mind if I have to wait a couple of months longer for my turn.
zpeti 6y ago
Yes but it doesn’t help that you just complained loudly about the Uk breaking international law, then you go and break private company contracts with eu law to obviously cover your own backside in failed negotiations. This is the EUs bullying negotiation strategy which they employ everywhere spectacularly failing.
- Dogeke 6y ago
  AstraZeneca is the one breaching the contract, the EU export ban will help the private company fulfil its contractual obligations it signed with the EU.
  - thu2111 6y ago
    AstraZeneca is not breaching its contract with the EU. That appears to be propaganda: note that the article doesn't actually state what part of the contract is being breached, and the link in the first paragraph that superficially looks like it would support this claim goes to an article that's not about contracts at all, in fact the word contract doesn't appear anywhere in that article. The EU accidentally leaked its own contract with AstraZeneca after trying to redact it. It showed that AZ were correct about the wording of the contract and the EU had been lying. There is no real disagreement about that anymore: the EU is on the wrong side of that dispute which is why there's been a lot of posturing but no court cases. BTW several EU countries have stockpiles of the AZ vaccine they aren't using because their citizens aren't turning up for appointments or volunteering to be vaxxed.