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> There is a large and robust literature to assess these type of damages even granting you that we have a robust model to assess damage (which on its face seem
by kryogen1c 6y ago
> There is a large and robust literature to assess these type of damages
even granting you that we have a robust model to assess damage (which on its face seems to be a wildly improbably claim) we do not have an accurate model that predicts WHAT damage will be done due to humanity's impact on weather change, so the resultant-cost benefit analysis still propagates that uncertainty forward.
> (search for Social Cost of Carbon)
i havent read it all because i just looked it up[0], but it directly contradicts your claim of our "robust data and damage models". section 5.1 "damage functions" is about how previous damage models are all incorrect.
side note: one of the paper authors is in references 30 times. idk if this is common or not, but it seems suspicious.
> The methodological challenges are discussed really well in the paper actually. Much of the damages calculated here aren't even climate but direct air pollution
wouldnt know, dont have access to anything but the abstract.
look, im not well read into the field of future predictive damage modeling. you may be right that the field has some definition, however i stand by my smell test. even ignoring everything relevent about health, damage, and climate, the start of the sentence "$1 of BTC" is enough to give pause. BTC price is up 30% in the last month and 470% in the last year. not exactly rigorous scientific measure.
[0] https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28472/w28472.pdf https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28472/w284...
- DennisP 6y agoBitcoin mining effort is proportional to the cost per bitcoin times the number of bitcoins awarded per block. Since the number per block is constant over each four-year period, it makes sense to talk about the cost per $1 of BTC.
- kryogen1c 6y agoBTC proof of work doesnt determine the BTC/$ conversion. the price is non-scientific, highly speculative, and highly volatile.
- DennisP 6y agoThe causation works in the other direction, due to the difficulty adjustment.
- kryogen1c 6y agoBTC/USD exchange rates are at best correlated with mining difficulty and 100% not causally related. this is patently false.
- ufo 6y agoThat's the reason why the paper is focusing on damages per dollar of mined bitcoin, instead of damages per mined bitcoin.