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It's really odd to me. 200 years ago, the population was about one billion. Now it approaches eight billion. If the trend really is lower over the next 100 year

It's really odd to me. 200 years ago, the population was about one billion. Now it approaches eight billion. If the trend really is lower over the next 100 years and it drops... don't we think it would eventually reverse again? Why do we want the population to be stable or always growing? Why would it be bad for it to be going down for a while?

toomuchtodo 6y ago
It would not reverse if woman have universal access to contraceptives and are empowered and educated. It’s a one way ratchet. https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-change-in-the-number-of-children-women-have https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-...
- neogodless 6y ago
  That's an assumption though, based on the current conditions and population. You can't extrapolate that same assumption to a future modernized world that has returned to one or two billion humans. Perhaps in that world, women happily choose to have more children than they are having now, for a variety of unforeseen reasons. Perhaps the world is just so great for everyone that women choose to bring additional children into the world, knowing just how much joy that children will experience. Perhaps children become a new popular hobby or some entertainment scheme we would find abhorrent in today's world. I don't believe there's anyway to know today that it's a one way ratchet forever.
adrianN 6y ago
Many parts of our economy assume perpetual growth. The easiest way to ensure growth is to increase the number of humans. Look at countries with shrinking birth rates for a glimpse of the problems an aging population can cause.
- jfk13 6y ago
  Perpetual growth based on an ever-increasing population is a recipe for eventual disaster. The earth's resources are not infinite. We may not be able to say precisely what its carrying capacity for humans is (and the answer would depend to some extent on the conditions in which the humans are prepared to live), but I am entirely confident that there is a limit.
  - rocgf 6y ago
    It definitely is, and believing anything else is delusional. With that said, would you like to be the politician to stop the madness, if that's even possible? Things will not change until we have a crisis.
rocgf 6y ago
Because our economy is somewhat of a Ponzi scheme, in which everything needs to keep growing forever. We are perpetually borrowing from the future, with the assumption that everything will be growing forever. As people get older, they start getting more expensive. If you don't have a larger generation coming from behind to provide for that ever-increasing older generation, then the costs have to be spread among fewer people.

toomuchtodo 6y ago

It would not reverse if woman have universal access to contraceptives and are empowered and educated. It’s a one way ratchet. https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-change-in-the-number-of-children-women-have https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-...

neogodless 6y ago
That's an assumption though, based on the current conditions and population. You can't extrapolate that same assumption to a future modernized world that has returned to one or two billion humans. Perhaps in that world, women happily choose to have more children than they are having now, for a variety of unforeseen reasons. Perhaps the world is just so great for everyone that women choose to bring additional children into the world, knowing just how much joy that children will experience. Perhaps children become a new popular hobby or some entertainment scheme we would find abhorrent in today's world. I don't believe there's anyway to know today that it's a one way ratchet forever.

adrianN 6y ago

Many parts of our economy assume perpetual growth. The easiest way to ensure growth is to increase the number of humans. Look at countries with shrinking birth rates for a glimpse of the problems an aging population can cause.

jfk13 6y ago
Perpetual growth based on an ever-increasing population is a recipe for eventual disaster. The earth's resources are not infinite. We may not be able to say precisely what its carrying capacity for humans is (and the answer would depend to some extent on the conditions in which the humans are prepared to live), but I am entirely confident that there is a limit.
- rocgf 6y ago
  It definitely is, and believing anything else is delusional. With that said, would you like to be the politician to stop the madness, if that's even possible? Things will not change until we have a crisis.

rocgf 6y ago

Because our economy is somewhat of a Ponzi scheme, in which everything needs to keep growing forever. We are perpetually borrowing from the future, with the assumption that everything will be growing forever. As people get older, they start getting more expensive. If you don't have a larger generation coming from behind to provide for that ever-increasing older generation, then the costs have to be spread among fewer people.