5 ms·

You're lamenting the short-term downside, but you ignore the long-term upside. If it hadn't been for the crypto boom, GPUs would not be where they are today.

smolder 6y ago
I find that really unlikely. Machine learning, rendering, and other massively parallel workloads were plenty to keep gpus advancing. All the crypto boom did is create shortages and raise prices. At best we got some additional chip fabrication capacity, but crypto continues to eat that.
- paulgb 6y ago
  > At best we got some additional chip fabrication capacity, but crypto continues to eat that. That’s the funny thing about this genre of arguments (Bitcoin improves GPU tech; Bitcoin subsidizes clean energy) — even if true, the gains will only be realized if there’s a crypto price crash, since otherwise mining absorbs the gains that it is responsible for by definition.
  - incrudible 6y ago
    Not at all, the refinement in semiconductor production is a permanent benefit into the future for every computing application. GPU mining has only caused temporary shortages three times in the past 10 years. Prices don't need to crash either, due to difficulty adjustment the profit will trend towards marginal cost, which can only be reduced with better technology.
    - paulgb 6y ago
      Improvements in semiconductor manufacturing would happen either way eventually; to the extent that Bitcoin accelerates them it is (by definition) by creating the demand that necessitates them.
      - incrudible 6y ago
        It's not zero-sum. These improvements are externalities, they are permanent and apply to all other uses of computing. Similarly, one can point out all the advances that the Apollo program brought that are unrelated to space travel. COVID brought in lots of scientific insights that will bear fruit regardless of whether we have to deal with any other coronaviruses in the future.
        paulgb 6y ago
        Sure, and smoking is responsible for advances in lung cancer research. It's the broken-window fallacy, though. The resources that were reallocated to lung cancer research due to smoking could have been used for other things.
        incrudible 6y ago
        > It's the broken-window fallacy, though. The broken window fallacy does not consider the benefits from improvements of technology that may result from destruction. Suppose that smashing a bunch of windows would lead to permanent improvements in glassmaking efficiency. In that case, the benefits in the long run would far outweigh the short term costs. Of course, that's not a given with any form of destruction, but I am arguing that it is the case with cryptocurrency.
        paulgb 6y ago
        The fallacy does account for that. In a counterfactual where the windows were not broken, the effort spent improving the efficiency of glassmaking would have been directed (by the invisible hand) to improving the efficiency of something else.
        incrudible 6y ago
        It doesn't account for that. If it did, it would assume improving the efficiency of one thing is equally valuable to improving the efficiency of any other thing, which is absurd. Like I said, not all destruction is destined to create excess value, but some destruction is, and I am arguing that this is the case here specifically. A counterfactual where this money would've been spent on something even more beneficial doesn't really matter. It wasn't spent that way and it could also have been spent in numerous other ways that are even less beneficial.
- incrudible 6y ago
  > Machine learning, rendering, and other massively parallel workloads were plenty to keep gpus advancing. I think the opposite is true. Now that we have cheap GPU accelerators, the machine learning revolution is taking place. But where does that cheap GPU accelerator come from? Clearly, the more frivolous "gaming demand" was paving the way for machine learning, not the other way around. It's similar for mining. > All the crypto boom did is create shortages and raise prices. Rising prices are a signal to the market that production needs to be increased, which lowers prices in the long term. Shortages are short term.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

smolder 6y ago

I find that really unlikely. Machine learning, rendering, and other massively parallel workloads were plenty to keep gpus advancing. All the crypto boom did is create shortages and raise prices. At best we got some additional chip fabrication capacity, but crypto continues to eat that.

paulgb 6y ago
> At best we got some additional chip fabrication capacity, but crypto continues to eat that. That’s the funny thing about this genre of arguments (Bitcoin improves GPU tech; Bitcoin subsidizes clean energy) — even if true, the gains will only be realized if there’s a crypto price crash, since otherwise mining absorbs the gains that it is responsible for by definition.
- incrudible 6y ago
  Not at all, the refinement in semiconductor production is a permanent benefit into the future for every computing application. GPU mining has only caused temporary shortages three times in the past 10 years. Prices don't need to crash either, due to difficulty adjustment the profit will trend towards marginal cost, which can only be reduced with better technology.
  - paulgb 6y ago
    Improvements in semiconductor manufacturing would happen either way eventually; to the extent that Bitcoin accelerates them it is (by definition) by creating the demand that necessitates them.
    - incrudible 6y ago
      It's not zero-sum. These improvements are externalities, they are permanent and apply to all other uses of computing. Similarly, one can point out all the advances that the Apollo program brought that are unrelated to space travel. COVID brought in lots of scientific insights that will bear fruit regardless of whether we have to deal with any other coronaviruses in the future.
      - paulgb 6y ago
        Sure, and smoking is responsible for advances in lung cancer research. It's the broken-window fallacy, though. The resources that were reallocated to lung cancer research due to smoking could have been used for other things.
        incrudible 6y ago
        > It's the broken-window fallacy, though. The broken window fallacy does not consider the benefits from improvements of technology that may result from destruction. Suppose that smashing a bunch of windows would lead to permanent improvements in glassmaking efficiency. In that case, the benefits in the long run would far outweigh the short term costs. Of course, that's not a given with any form of destruction, but I am arguing that it is the case with cryptocurrency.
        paulgb 6y ago
        The fallacy does account for that. In a counterfactual where the windows were not broken, the effort spent improving the efficiency of glassmaking would have been directed (by the invisible hand) to improving the efficiency of something else.
        incrudible 6y ago
        It doesn't account for that. If it did, it would assume improving the efficiency of one thing is equally valuable to improving the efficiency of any other thing, which is absurd. Like I said, not all destruction is destined to create excess value, but some destruction is, and I am arguing that this is the case here specifically. A counterfactual where this money would've been spent on something even more beneficial doesn't really matter. It wasn't spent that way and it could also have been spent in numerous other ways that are even less beneficial.
incrudible 6y ago
> Machine learning, rendering, and other massively parallel workloads were plenty to keep gpus advancing. I think the opposite is true. Now that we have cheap GPU accelerators, the machine learning revolution is taking place. But where does that cheap GPU accelerator come from? Clearly, the more frivolous "gaming demand" was paving the way for machine learning, not the other way around. It's similar for mining. > All the crypto boom did is create shortages and raise prices. Rising prices are a signal to the market that production needs to be increased, which lowers prices in the long term. Shortages are short term.

deleted 6y ago

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