6 ms·

Taiwan would be foolish to believe such American promises. The USA made similar promises to Ukraine in the Budapest memorandum (under Clinton), and subsequently

by nickff 6y ago

Taiwan would be foolish to believe such American promises. The USA made similar promises to Ukraine in the Budapest memorandum (under Clinton), and subsequently did not fulfill its obligations (under Obama).

pas 6y ago
Could you be a bit more specific in what agreement the Obama admin did not honor? Which parts and how?
- asadhaider 6y ago
  The Wiki article of the memorandum, particularly the Breach section, contains dates and overview of info on this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit...
- nickff 6y ago
  There is a Wikipedia page on the Budapest memorandum, which outlines its content, and at least one breach: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur...
- wyuenho 6y ago
  He's implying Euromaiden in 2014 as a EU and US instigated event to erode Ukraine's political independence, thus, justifying Russia's invasion of the Crimea. We should know by now whenever region moves away from an authoritarian power's orbit is regarded by these powers' as some kind of foreign influence and subversive operation. They think it's impossible that the people themselves actually don't like authoritarian governments. It's the same in Russia, China, Iran, North Korea etc etc etc.
  - dannyw 6y ago
    Nothing special to authoritarian governments. Both the left and right in the USA like to believe it's foreign influence than half the country having (sometimes drastically) different views. The city/rural biases don't help either as you mostly see people with similar views to you.
    - wyuenho 6y ago
      This is a new phenomenon in the US, mostly because of party elder denial.
  - earthboundkid 6y ago
    "Euromaiden" is a funny typo.
  - sergeykish 6y ago
    Russia puppet was the reason of Euromaidan. Putins rating raised to 86% after Crimea annexation. Ukraine joined West in propaganda. It's just a fuel for informational autocracy.
mytailorisrich 6y ago
Europe and the US never wanted to be forced to intervene in Ukraine, hence why they were not in a rush to consider Ukraine's push to join NATO. The Budapest memorandum does not make any promises to help. Regarding Crimea, the breach is Russia's, not the West's.
- baybal2 6y ago
  > The Budapest memorandum does not make any promises to help. It does, go read the text
  - mytailorisrich 6y ago
    I have. So where does it?
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - pierrebai 6y ago
      I think it refers to this: Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used". Obviously, Russia did not use nuclear weapon... but maybe the fact that Russia has nuclear weapon and invaded Crimea means Ukraine is under threat of nuclear weapons...
      - mytailorisrich 6y ago
        That's not a promise to send any help or to help militarily. It just says that if Ukraine is nuked (quite an extreme scenario to start with) they'll ask the Security Council (where Russia has a veto) to do something about it. You can argue that this constitutes a promise to 'help', but frankly sending a "get well soon" card would be more helpful. Hence my first comment: The US and the West do not want to be forced to intervene and thus they never made any promise, binding or otherwise, to. The UN did vote a resolution on Ukraine and Crimea in 2014. As I also wrote, it is Russia that breached the memorandum but not respecting Ukraine's borders as they were but, tough.
cbozeman 6y ago
The United States doesn't "need" Ukraine in the way the United States "needs" access to the most advanced digital chip creation technology in the world. If Ukraine disappears tomorrow, we lose the next Milla Jovovich and Mila Kunis. A bummer, yes, but not an end to our way of life.
- baybal2 6y ago
  If Ukraine disappears tomorrow, Western Europe will follow, and with that the only US platz d'arme in Asia against Russia, and the only remaining US nuclear allies. Following this, don't think you will be able to leisurely spend the remaining of your life. Everybody down to your granny will be forcefully drafted, and mobilised.
  - ohgodplsno 6y ago
    >If Ukraine disappears tomorrow, Western Europe will follow Ah yes, the dreaded invasion of Western Europe by Russia, with their 90% outdated tanks and planes that could be held back by a single major European army. A terrifying prospects that haunts every european at night.
    - baybal2 6y ago
      > Ah yes, the dreaded invasion of Western Europe by Russia, with their 90% outdated tanks and planes that could be held back by a single major European army. Tanks - Russia: 10000+ Tanks - Germany: 300 + 1200 US army tanks
      - ohgodplsno 6y ago
        Firstly, it's quite disingenious to take Germany as the example when they have never had a large army in the past 50 years and have not been a military power. Let's compare what is comparable: Russia and France use about the same percentage of their budget for military purposes: 9% for France, 11% for Russia. Tanks - Russia - T72 - 2000 tanks, 7000 in reserve - T90 - 350 active, 200 reserve - T14 Armata (i.e., top of the line) - 100 planned, 20+ active. Tanks - France - Leclerc (top of the line) - 222 active, 200 upgraded to XLR-Standard - AMX10/20 - 300 Planes - Russia - SU57 - 1. - SU35S (refurbished Su27 from 2003) - 97 - SU34 (from 1990) - 120 - Mig35 - 4. - Planes from before 1980 - 500 Planes - France - Rafale B/C/M - 150 - Mirage 2000 - 120 So, even if Russia intends to throw tanks from 1970 at Europe to have them be utterly crushed by aviation, a single country from Europe stands more or less toe to toe with it.
fiftyfifty 6y ago
China will never take Taiwan with military force, at least not anytime soon. Any kind of military move against Taiwan would endanger the real value of Taiwan which is companies like TSMC. China will continue to work to increase it's political and economic power while weakening the US's and other western countries influence until such a time that they can take Taiwan with little or no force at all.
onepointsixC 6y ago
The difference is that the Ukrainian invasion had far smaller implications to US interests than an invasion of Taiwan would have.

by nickff 6y ago

pas 6y ago

Could you be a bit more specific in what agreement the Obama admin did not honor? Which parts and how?

asadhaider 6y ago
The Wiki article of the memorandum, particularly the Breach section, contains dates and overview of info on this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit...
nickff 6y ago
There is a Wikipedia page on the Budapest memorandum, which outlines its content, and at least one breach: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur...
wyuenho 6y ago
He's implying Euromaiden in 2014 as a EU and US instigated event to erode Ukraine's political independence, thus, justifying Russia's invasion of the Crimea. We should know by now whenever region moves away from an authoritarian power's orbit is regarded by these powers' as some kind of foreign influence and subversive operation. They think it's impossible that the people themselves actually don't like authoritarian governments. It's the same in Russia, China, Iran, North Korea etc etc etc.
- dannyw 6y ago
  Nothing special to authoritarian governments. Both the left and right in the USA like to believe it's foreign influence than half the country having (sometimes drastically) different views. The city/rural biases don't help either as you mostly see people with similar views to you.
  - wyuenho 6y ago
    This is a new phenomenon in the US, mostly because of party elder denial.
- earthboundkid 6y ago
  "Euromaiden" is a funny typo.
- sergeykish 6y ago
  Russia puppet was the reason of Euromaidan. Putins rating raised to 86% after Crimea annexation. Ukraine joined West in propaganda. It's just a fuel for informational autocracy.

mytailorisrich 6y ago

Europe and the US never wanted to be forced to intervene in Ukraine, hence why they were not in a rush to consider Ukraine's push to join NATO. The Budapest memorandum does not make any promises to help. Regarding Crimea, the breach is Russia's, not the West's.

baybal2 6y ago
> The Budapest memorandum does not make any promises to help. It does, go read the text
- mytailorisrich 6y ago
  I have. So where does it?
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - pierrebai 6y ago
    I think it refers to this: Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used". Obviously, Russia did not use nuclear weapon... but maybe the fact that Russia has nuclear weapon and invaded Crimea means Ukraine is under threat of nuclear weapons...
    - mytailorisrich 6y ago
      That's not a promise to send any help or to help militarily. It just says that if Ukraine is nuked (quite an extreme scenario to start with) they'll ask the Security Council (where Russia has a veto) to do something about it. You can argue that this constitutes a promise to 'help', but frankly sending a "get well soon" card would be more helpful. Hence my first comment: The US and the West do not want to be forced to intervene and thus they never made any promise, binding or otherwise, to. The UN did vote a resolution on Ukraine and Crimea in 2014. As I also wrote, it is Russia that breached the memorandum but not respecting Ukraine's borders as they were but, tough.

cbozeman 6y ago

The United States doesn't "need" Ukraine in the way the United States "needs" access to the most advanced digital chip creation technology in the world. If Ukraine disappears tomorrow, we lose the next Milla Jovovich and Mila Kunis. A bummer, yes, but not an end to our way of life.

baybal2 6y ago
If Ukraine disappears tomorrow, Western Europe will follow, and with that the only US platz d'arme in Asia against Russia, and the only remaining US nuclear allies. Following this, don't think you will be able to leisurely spend the remaining of your life. Everybody down to your granny will be forcefully drafted, and mobilised.
- ohgodplsno 6y ago
  >If Ukraine disappears tomorrow, Western Europe will follow Ah yes, the dreaded invasion of Western Europe by Russia, with their 90% outdated tanks and planes that could be held back by a single major European army. A terrifying prospects that haunts every european at night.
  - baybal2 6y ago
    > Ah yes, the dreaded invasion of Western Europe by Russia, with their 90% outdated tanks and planes that could be held back by a single major European army. Tanks - Russia: 10000+ Tanks - Germany: 300 + 1200 US army tanks
    - ohgodplsno 6y ago
      Firstly, it's quite disingenious to take Germany as the example when they have never had a large army in the past 50 years and have not been a military power. Let's compare what is comparable: Russia and France use about the same percentage of their budget for military purposes: 9% for France, 11% for Russia. Tanks - Russia - T72 - 2000 tanks, 7000 in reserve - T90 - 350 active, 200 reserve - T14 Armata (i.e., top of the line) - 100 planned, 20+ active. Tanks - France - Leclerc (top of the line) - 222 active, 200 upgraded to XLR-Standard - AMX10/20 - 300 Planes - Russia - SU57 - 1. - SU35S (refurbished Su27 from 2003) - 97 - SU34 (from 1990) - 120 - Mig35 - 4. - Planes from before 1980 - 500 Planes - France - Rafale B/C/M - 150 - Mirage 2000 - 120 So, even if Russia intends to throw tanks from 1970 at Europe to have them be utterly crushed by aviation, a single country from Europe stands more or less toe to toe with it.

fiftyfifty 6y ago

China will never take Taiwan with military force, at least not anytime soon. Any kind of military move against Taiwan would endanger the real value of Taiwan which is companies like TSMC. China will continue to work to increase it's political and economic power while weakening the US's and other western countries influence until such a time that they can take Taiwan with little or no force at all.

onepointsixC 6y ago

The difference is that the Ukrainian invasion had far smaller implications to US interests than an invasion of Taiwan would have.