5 ms·

The Black Death: A New Culprit?

39 points by benbreen 6y ago

soperj 6y ago
Real culprit is clearly humans.
autokad 6y ago
one thing to note is look at the outbreaks specifically, such as the one in England 1665 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPe6BgzHWY0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPe6BgzHWY0 We often forget of looking at the diaries and writing of the people at the time, the ones that actually lived during this time as opposed to academic articles opining on some small piece of data. The one thing of note was that the outbreak ended as soon as cold set in, specifically the first freeze. The ending was very abrupt, so it seems reasonable to me to ask: what did that frost kill? why was the vector for the plague eliminated by a frost and did not return the next year? It makes me wonder if mosquitoes (like a specific species) were somehow spreading the disease.
gumby 6y ago
If this had been known sooner there might be a line of fashionable outdoor clothing called "Rat".
gregwebs 6y ago
I doubt a model of disease for the plague that requires rodent to human transmission. Here is a good explanation of evidence of spread direct from human to human: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17223184-000-did-bubonic-plague-really-cause-the-black-death/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17223184-000-did-bubo... According to Wikipedia "Although academic debate continues, no single alternative solution has achieved widespread acceptance": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death#Causes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death#Causes
- ianburrell 6y ago
  The Black Death was definitely bubonic plague, confirmed by genetic analysis in 2010. That article is from 2001. This article is about genetics localizing the source of plague to the Tian Shin mountains and maybe to marmots.
  - gregwebs 6y ago
    There are also more recent papers such as this 2018 paper concluding that rodent fleas could not have caused the second pandemic: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5819418/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5819418/
ncmncm 6y ago
This re-opens the question of what caused the eastern Roman Plague of Justinian in CE 541-549[0], and repeatedly for centuries after. Clearly, no Tian Shan marmots carried by Mongols were involved there, although Huns might have been. But it is confirmed that it was Y. pestis. [0] <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Justinian https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Justinian>
- rsj_hn 6y ago
  There is a general pattern of plagues originating in the large population centers of Asia and then being carried to Europe by the "population pump" of the steppes. E.g. when there is a period of good rains the livestock and people swell in size and then when drought comes they migrate westward. This creates waves of people, often bringing diseases. The mongols were just one example. There is evidence of the plague in Neolithic europe: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/12/did-new-form-plague-destroy-europe-s-stone-age-societies https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/12/did-new-form-plague-... And some believe that there are references to the bubonic plague in the old testament, which recounts the story of a plague of "tumors" (e.g. boils) hitting the Phillistines and then they put gold rats in the ark and sent it away to be rid of the plague: https://biblehub.com/1_samuel/6-11.htm https://biblehub.com/1_samuel/6-11.htm
choeger 6y ago
The idea that the mongols would carry the pest seems strikingly logical at first. After all, what did the conquistadors carry to the Americas? But that model doesn't really work well, if one thinks about it. The mongols did move large armies. These armies were not exactly healthy. So any outbreak of the plague would have severely hampered them. But how would they carry it to then infect, for instance, a besieged city? So either the plague followed the conquest, e.g., via trade routes or it was caused by the conquest, e.g., due to malnutrition of the conquered. But none of that explains the devastating effect it had on europe.
timwaagh 6y ago
A problem is that correlating a Eurasian outbreak around that time with a Mongol attack should be really easy because they conquered everywhere. But yeah Mongolians still like to eat marmot and they still get plague occasionally. Perhaps that was the inspiration for the hypothesis as well? But maybe it's true. Who knows. The fearsome marmot eating plague bearing all conquering horde...

39 points by benbreen 6y ago

Real culprit is clearly humans.

one thing to note is look at the outbreaks specifically, such as the one in England 1665 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPe6BgzHWY0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPe6BgzHWY0 We often forget of looking at the diaries and writing of the people at the time, the ones that actually lived during this time as opposed to academic articles opining on some small piece of data. The one thing of note was that the outbreak ended as soon as cold set in, specifically the first freeze. The ending was very abrupt, so it seems reasonable to me to ask: what did that frost kill? why was the vector for the plague eliminated by a frost and did not return the next year? It makes me wonder if mosquitoes (like a specific species) were somehow spreading the disease.

gumby 6y ago

If this had been known sooner there might be a line of fashionable outdoor clothing called "Rat".

gregwebs 6y ago

I doubt a model of disease for the plague that requires rodent to human transmission. Here is a good explanation of evidence of spread direct from human to human: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17223184-000-did-bubonic-plague-really-cause-the-black-death/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17223184-000-did-bubo... According to Wikipedia "Although academic debate continues, no single alternative solution has achieved widespread acceptance": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death#Causes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death#Causes

ianburrell 6y ago
The Black Death was definitely bubonic plague, confirmed by genetic analysis in 2010. That article is from 2001. This article is about genetics localizing the source of plague to the Tian Shin mountains and maybe to marmots.
- gregwebs 6y ago
  There are also more recent papers such as this 2018 paper concluding that rodent fleas could not have caused the second pandemic: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5819418/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5819418/

ncmncm 6y ago

This re-opens the question of what caused the eastern Roman Plague of Justinian in CE 541-549[0], and repeatedly for centuries after. Clearly, no Tian Shan marmots carried by Mongols were involved there, although Huns might have been. But it is confirmed that it was Y. pestis. [0] <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Justinian https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Justinian>

rsj_hn 6y ago
There is a general pattern of plagues originating in the large population centers of Asia and then being carried to Europe by the "population pump" of the steppes. E.g. when there is a period of good rains the livestock and people swell in size and then when drought comes they migrate westward. This creates waves of people, often bringing diseases. The mongols were just one example. There is evidence of the plague in Neolithic europe: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/12/did-new-form-plague-destroy-europe-s-stone-age-societies https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/12/did-new-form-plague-... And some believe that there are references to the bubonic plague in the old testament, which recounts the story of a plague of "tumors" (e.g. boils) hitting the Phillistines and then they put gold rats in the ark and sent it away to be rid of the plague: https://biblehub.com/1_samuel/6-11.htm https://biblehub.com/1_samuel/6-11.htm

choeger 6y ago

The idea that the mongols would carry the pest seems strikingly logical at first. After all, what did the conquistadors carry to the Americas? But that model doesn't really work well, if one thinks about it. The mongols did move large armies. These armies were not exactly healthy. So any outbreak of the plague would have severely hampered them. But how would they carry it to then infect, for instance, a besieged city? So either the plague followed the conquest, e.g., via trade routes or it was caused by the conquest, e.g., due to malnutrition of the conquered. But none of that explains the devastating effect it had on europe.

timwaagh 6y ago

A problem is that correlating a Eurasian outbreak around that time with a Mongol attack should be really easy because they conquered everywhere. But yeah Mongolians still like to eat marmot and they still get plague occasionally. Perhaps that was the inspiration for the hypothesis as well? But maybe it's true. Who knows. The fearsome marmot eating plague bearing all conquering horde...