> What I'm saying is that each "estimated minute" is more likely to have a gaussian distribution If that were your actual assumption, you should measure the va

> What I'm saying is that each "estimated minute" is more likely to have a gaussian distribution If that were your actual assumption, you should measure the variance of the difference between your estimate and the actual time taken, use that to determine a confidence interval (e.g. 95% of the time, the additional delay is less than x) and then add it to your estimate.