4 ms·

hydrogen maybe the only economical way of transporting goods on medium and long distances - you don't wanna drag 5 tonnes of batteries with you.

speedgoose 6y ago
Unfortunately I think diesel is going to win over hydrogen for a long long time.
- Ma8ee 6y ago
  Did you miss the memo about the climate emergency?
PhantomGremlin 6y ago
hydrogen maybe the only economical way of transporting goods on medium and long distances The word "only" in your sentence is only meaningful in a world in which diesel fuel and natural gas don't exist. Check out this map from the US DOE: https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/natural_gas_locations.html https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/natural_gas_locations.html Why there must be dozens of natural gas (both LNG and CNG) fueling stations around the country. There are even a handful in Canada. Almost nothing, but still way ahead of hydrogen. If you look at pure hydrogen (same map), there appear to be a few dozen stations in the entire country, all in California. In comparison, the number of electric stations (same map) is huge. Pure hydrogen is in last place. It's a joke. Toyota has wasted billions of dollars on it. Nobody is going to build out a hydrogen infrastructure given all the alternatives. Hydrogen as a transportation fuel is deader than the parrot in the Monty Python sketch. No amount of wishful thinking can change that.
- bobmaxup 6y ago
  Because there aren't many hydrogen refueling stations currently in the United States, no one is going to build any more, so it is a joke and dead?
  - PhantomGremlin 6y ago
    It definitely is dead. There are 168,000 gas stations in the US. Supported by a huge network of oil fields, pipelines, and refineries. There are now 26,000 EV charging stations open to the public. In addition, there are literally billions of wall outlets that can be used to charge EVs. All supported by hundreds if not thousands of generating stations and an enormous power transmission network. There are hundreds of natural gas (LNG + CNG) stations. Given that existing multi-trillion dollar infrastructure, what would the business plan for building out hydrogen look like?
    - bobmaxup 6y ago
      > Given that existing multi-trillion dollar infrastructure, what would the business plan for building out hydrogen look like? I don't know, maybe something like CNG or EV stations two decades ago?
    - Ma8ee 6y ago
      How many EV charging stations were there in the US five years ago. Ten years ago? About business plan: start selling to fleets of taxis and short haul trucks. They are sensitive to fuel cost and consumption, but only need one or two stations in the whole metropolitan area. Do that in major cities. After that you only need a few stops between the towns. Natural gas, as all fossil fuels, are dead within a few years. It’s amazes me that people still haven’t seen that writing on the wall. Only idiots buy new fossil fuel cars today. They won’t have any resell value in a few years.
      - throwaway0a5e 6y ago
        > They are sensitive to fuel cost and consumption, And incredibly sensitive to price per mile. You add 800lb of batteries to a step van that delivers bread and you lose so much cargo capacity that you're no longer profitable or it bumps you up to a different class of vehicle with different regulatory requirements that make you no longer profitable. Believe me, tons of fleet operators are drooling over the idea of EV fleets that recharge overnight and the cost savings from drastically cutting the required regular maintenance. The economics just aren't there yet. >But idiots buy new fossil fuel cars today. They won’t have any resell value in a few years. Idiots vote so.....
phs318u 6y ago
Or trains.
pmorici 6y ago
The only thing stopping battery electric trucks from taking over long haul trucking is constrained battery supply. You will see battery electric trucks on the road in large numbers within the first half of this decade.
- sharpneli 6y ago
  5 tonnes was not an exaggeration. Batteries weigh a lot. Right now energy density of them is enough for decent passenger car experience. But it’s not competitive in big trucks.
  - andyferris 6y ago
    On the other hand, Tesla is selling a semi-trailer, which they claim is compelling. It will be interesting to see how it is received, but I think it’s too early to claim it can’t be competitive.
- dntrkv 6y ago
  Electric long-haul trucking is nowhere close to being a reality and the limiting factor is not battery supply. Weight: Electric semis will have a reduced load of over 4 MT (~9,000 lbs) due to increased weight in the batteries Range: Even with a ~500 mile range, that is not even close to satisfying long-haul trucking needs Recharge: With a 150kW supercharger, you are looking at 7+ hour recharge time Charging infra: You can charge your electric car at home, you aren't gonna be charging your semi at home. Many owner-operators store their trucks in a truck yard along with dozens of other trucks. Even just 10 trucks @ 120kWh = 1.2MWh, large company fleets will be even harder. On the road, this will be even less feasible in the short term In the end, what you have is a more expensive truck, with a decreased payload capacity, that cannot drive as far, that will have more downtime due to charging, and will require massive updates to electric infrastructure. The only case where they might make sense are in shorter routes, with a vertically integrated company like Amazon going from one distribution center to another where truckers can switch trucks on arrival and let the previous one charge. But even then, it will be a long time before running these trucks will be as profitable as the existing ones.
elihu 6y ago
If we can figure out how to electrify the interstate highway system, trucks won't even need massive batteries. They'll just need enough to get from the freeway to their pickup/dropoff locations. Honestly I don't understand why that isn't already a thing, even ignoring the environmental benefits and just focusing on economics. The amount of diesel big trucks consume is expensive. Maintenance is expensive. Even manufacturing trucks with big diesel engines is expensive.
- stefan_ 6y ago
  It's a thing, called the electric locomotive, circa 1920.
  - Theodores 6y ago
    Trams. Trolleybus. Trains. These things are useless to people who have a truck.
  - dghughes 6y ago
    There are many electric trains but they have gas turbines burning diesel that converts the fuel to electric power to power the wheels. For storage liquid is king for now especially when you're 2000km from any town.

speedgoose 6y ago

Unfortunately I think diesel is going to win over hydrogen for a long long time.

Ma8ee 6y ago
Did you miss the memo about the climate emergency?

PhantomGremlin 6y ago

hydrogen maybe the only economical way of transporting goods on medium and long distances The word "only" in your sentence is only meaningful in a world in which diesel fuel and natural gas don't exist. Check out this map from the US DOE: https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/natural_gas_locations.html https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/natural_gas_locations.html Why there must be dozens of natural gas (both LNG and CNG) fueling stations around the country. There are even a handful in Canada. Almost nothing, but still way ahead of hydrogen. If you look at pure hydrogen (same map), there appear to be a few dozen stations in the entire country, all in California. In comparison, the number of electric stations (same map) is huge. Pure hydrogen is in last place. It's a joke. Toyota has wasted billions of dollars on it. Nobody is going to build out a hydrogen infrastructure given all the alternatives. Hydrogen as a transportation fuel is deader than the parrot in the Monty Python sketch. No amount of wishful thinking can change that.

bobmaxup 6y ago
Because there aren't many hydrogen refueling stations currently in the United States, no one is going to build any more, so it is a joke and dead?
- PhantomGremlin 6y ago
  It definitely is dead. There are 168,000 gas stations in the US. Supported by a huge network of oil fields, pipelines, and refineries. There are now 26,000 EV charging stations open to the public. In addition, there are literally billions of wall outlets that can be used to charge EVs. All supported by hundreds if not thousands of generating stations and an enormous power transmission network. There are hundreds of natural gas (LNG + CNG) stations. Given that existing multi-trillion dollar infrastructure, what would the business plan for building out hydrogen look like?
  - bobmaxup 6y ago
    > Given that existing multi-trillion dollar infrastructure, what would the business plan for building out hydrogen look like? I don't know, maybe something like CNG or EV stations two decades ago?
  - Ma8ee 6y ago
    How many EV charging stations were there in the US five years ago. Ten years ago? About business plan: start selling to fleets of taxis and short haul trucks. They are sensitive to fuel cost and consumption, but only need one or two stations in the whole metropolitan area. Do that in major cities. After that you only need a few stops between the towns. Natural gas, as all fossil fuels, are dead within a few years. It’s amazes me that people still haven’t seen that writing on the wall. Only idiots buy new fossil fuel cars today. They won’t have any resell value in a few years.
    - throwaway0a5e 6y ago
      > They are sensitive to fuel cost and consumption, And incredibly sensitive to price per mile. You add 800lb of batteries to a step van that delivers bread and you lose so much cargo capacity that you're no longer profitable or it bumps you up to a different class of vehicle with different regulatory requirements that make you no longer profitable. Believe me, tons of fleet operators are drooling over the idea of EV fleets that recharge overnight and the cost savings from drastically cutting the required regular maintenance. The economics just aren't there yet. >But idiots buy new fossil fuel cars today. They won’t have any resell value in a few years. Idiots vote so.....

phs318u 6y ago

Or trains.

pmorici 6y ago

The only thing stopping battery electric trucks from taking over long haul trucking is constrained battery supply. You will see battery electric trucks on the road in large numbers within the first half of this decade.

sharpneli 6y ago
5 tonnes was not an exaggeration. Batteries weigh a lot. Right now energy density of them is enough for decent passenger car experience. But it’s not competitive in big trucks.
- andyferris 6y ago
  On the other hand, Tesla is selling a semi-trailer, which they claim is compelling. It will be interesting to see how it is received, but I think it’s too early to claim it can’t be competitive.
dntrkv 6y ago
Electric long-haul trucking is nowhere close to being a reality and the limiting factor is not battery supply. Weight: Electric semis will have a reduced load of over 4 MT (~9,000 lbs) due to increased weight in the batteries Range: Even with a ~500 mile range, that is not even close to satisfying long-haul trucking needs Recharge: With a 150kW supercharger, you are looking at 7+ hour recharge time Charging infra: You can charge your electric car at home, you aren't gonna be charging your semi at home. Many owner-operators store their trucks in a truck yard along with dozens of other trucks. Even just 10 trucks @ 120kWh = 1.2MWh, large company fleets will be even harder. On the road, this will be even less feasible in the short term In the end, what you have is a more expensive truck, with a decreased payload capacity, that cannot drive as far, that will have more downtime due to charging, and will require massive updates to electric infrastructure. The only case where they might make sense are in shorter routes, with a vertically integrated company like Amazon going from one distribution center to another where truckers can switch trucks on arrival and let the previous one charge. But even then, it will be a long time before running these trucks will be as profitable as the existing ones.

elihu 6y ago

If we can figure out how to electrify the interstate highway system, trucks won't even need massive batteries. They'll just need enough to get from the freeway to their pickup/dropoff locations. Honestly I don't understand why that isn't already a thing, even ignoring the environmental benefits and just focusing on economics. The amount of diesel big trucks consume is expensive. Maintenance is expensive. Even manufacturing trucks with big diesel engines is expensive.

stefan_ 6y ago
It's a thing, called the electric locomotive, circa 1920.
- Theodores 6y ago
  Trams. Trolleybus. Trains. These things are useless to people who have a truck.
- dghughes 6y ago
  There are many electric trains but they have gas turbines burning diesel that converts the fuel to electric power to power the wheels. For storage liquid is king for now especially when you're 2000km from any town.